Key Races & Bets for Saturday October 30, 2021
Race 6 at Keeneland – Post Time 3:40 PM
Mr. Jagermeister, Derby Date and Pyron are the main contenders to win this race.
Mr. Jagermeister has a very strong career record of 12 wins in 31 dirt races and earnings of over $650K. Yet he opens at 12/1 because he’s been running in Minnesota and Iowa recently. He also gets a low percentage jockey but I’m going to ignore that because the horse is drawn very well with an outside post and has the tactical speed to be first or second early the way he likes it. Mr. Jagermeister has put in two strong half-mile works since his last race on 9/8 and is holding his form so must be given top billing as he opens at much higher odds than the other two listed contenders.
Derby Date is coupled with Bon Raison as both are owned by Calumet farm but I am not interested in the other so if Derby Date scratches I will not bet the entry. Derby Date ran poorly in a stakes race last month at Churchill and it was such a bad effort I think it can be ignored. He won two in a row prior to that and Rosario taking the call suggests he will run back to one of those two efforts.
Pyron returned from nine months off four weeks ago and ran second in a fine effort to a stakes winner. He can improve second off the layoff and won a little over a year ago at the one lower allowance condition with a 110 Equibase figure which is tops in the field (Derby Date’s best is 101 and Mr. Jagermeister’s best is 102). Mena rode him for the first time in his most recent start and considering the horse has been first or second in nearly half his 14 races he is a must to use on any exacta tickets we play at the very least.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Mr. Jagermeister at 3 to 1 or more.
Derby Date at 7 to 2 or more.
“IF” both horses are above minimum odds for making a win bet near post time, they can be bet using a “Dutching Tool” like the one which is free and easy to use at Amwager.com. A Dutching tool lets you set the amount you want to bet or the amount you want to win, then based on the odds your bets are proportioned accordingly. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.
Exactas:
Box Mr. Jagermeister, Derby Date and Pyron
Mr. Jagermeister, Derby Date and Pyron over Mr. Jagermeister, Derby Date, Pyron, Much Better and Top Seed
Mr. Jagermeister, Derby Date, Pyron, Much Better and Top Seed over Mr. Jagermeister, Derby Date and Pyron
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Bowman Mill Stakes – Race 7 at Keeneland – Post Time 4:12 PM Eastern
Chattalot and My Prankster are the main win contenders in this race.
Chattalot is undefeated in two starts, the first in his debut in July at Saratoga in a huge effort after battling head-and-head for the entire length of the stretch, then after two and one-half months off four weeks ago. In that first level allowance race at Churchill Downs, Chattalot relaxed in third in the early stages, had traffic issues in the stretch, the got up to win. The progression to a 100 Equibase figure, tops in the field, already makes him the one to beat and with logical improvement second off the layoff he should win this stakes race for three year olds in his third career start.
My Prankster won at Saratoga in his debut similar to Chattalot’s win in his debut one week earlier. In that win My Prankster showed a lot of maturity to rally after relaxing in third early. He then ran in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes and although well regarded by bettors at 7 to 2 odds he could only manage fourth. This race is a much better fit and the 95 figure from his debut bears improving so he’s the other main contender to win.
Nakatomi and Freelancer finished second and third, respectively, behind Chattalot in their most recent races and have a shot to be part of the trifecta or exacta.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Chattalot at odds of 3 to 2 or more.
Exactas:
Chattalot over Nakatomi, Freelancer and My Prankster
Chattalot and My Prankster over Chattalot, Nakatomi, My Prankster and Freelancer
Trifecta:
Chattalot and My Prankster over Chattalot and My Prankster over Nakatomi and Freelancer
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Bryan Station Stakes – Race 8 at Belmont – Post Time 4:44 PM Eastern
Camp Hope, Yes This Time and Point Me By are the main win contenders.
Camp Hope comes back for the second time at the Keeneland meeting and there is every reason to have faith trainer Ken McPeek knows the colt is the type to be able to do it as many horses have done over the years successfully. He won on 10/8 at a mile and one-eighth on grass powerfully by five lengths after opening up by six with an eighth of a mile to go and was TOTALLY WRAPPED up by his jockey Hernandez (who rides back) at the end. That was his second “A” race in a row as he missed by a neck after leading late in a very tough race at Kentucky Downs on the turf at a mile and five sixteenths. Not only is the cut back to a mile going to hit him right between the eyes, his last two Equibase Speed Figures of 102 and 103 are the best in the field, with only Point Me By and Yes This Time having broken the 100 threshold recently. He won that last race leading all the way but before that he rallied from fourth and about six lengths back early so no matter the pace scenario Camp Hope should be very tough in this situation. Additionally, those two races came against three year olds and upward and he’s facing only three year olds today.
Yes This Time finished second in a career-best effort in the Dueling Grounds Derby last time out. Gaffalione was up for the first time and rides back and the 104 figure is as strong as the 103 Camp Hope earned last out. Like Camp Hope, Yes This Time cuts back in distance, from 1 5/16 miles to this one mile trip, which helps sharpen his late kick and gives him a strong shot to earn his seventh career win in his 11th career start.
Point Me By offers value for the exacta, and for a win bet, not offered by the other two, as he opens at 10/1. He won a turf sprint in his debut in June then in spite of finishing fourth ran huge second time out as he was ninth with an eighth of a mile to go and was fourth and beaten just a length at the end. At a mile in his next start, on 8/14, Point Me By won the Grade 1 Bruce D Stakes (formerly the Secretariat) for three year olds only which is identical to this race. Then he shortened up to six and one-half furlongs for the very tough Franklin Simpson Stakes and had no kick. He will appreciate the stretch out to a mile and rounds out the top contenders here as his Bruce D effort earned a 103 figure.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Camp Hope to win at odds of 5 to 2 or more.
Point Me By to win at odds of 7 to 2 or more.
This is another race where a Dutching tool, like the one which is free at Amwager, really helps. We are likely to have two horses have much different odds near post time so the tool really helps us gain an edge mathematically when wagering on more than one horse to win.
Note: Yes This Time can be bet to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more but that is his morning line and I doubt he will reach that threshold so we can try to profit from his winning by using him on exacta and trifecta tickets as below.
Exactas:
Box Point Me By, Yes This Time and Camp Hope
Point Me By, Yes This Time and Camp Hope over Point Me By, Yes This Time and Camp Hope, Charles Chrome, Like the King, Scarlett Sky and Dreamer’s Disease.
Trifecta:
Point Me By, Yes This Time and Camp Hope over ALL over Point Me By, Yes This Time and Camp Hope, Charles Chrome, Like the King, Scarlett Sky and Dreamer’s Disease. (Played in conjunction with the exactas above covers most of the combinations such that we win if any two of the three main contenders finish first and second, or first and third, for us to win. If they happen to finish first, second and third we win both bets).
