AmWager Key Races & Bets for Saturday, May 18, 2019
Race 2 at Pimlico – Post Time 11:05 AM Eastern
Although race two on the Preakness day card isn’t one of the many great stakes races, it’s a KEY BETTING Race in my opinion owing to the fact He’s One Wild Dude opens at 12/1 and Sir Brahms opens at 6 to 1. He’s One Wild Dude returned from four months off last month and ran very well in spite of likely being a little less than 100% fit. He battled for the lead early before tiring to third but should run a lot better second off the layoff, particularly as his current trainer claimed him in December before giving him time off and had the horse in his care previously, with He’s One Wild Dude winning three times for the trainer, all on turf and all with jockey Russell riding as he’s doing today. Considering the trainer knows the horse, as does the jockey, I think those previous winning efforts are repeatable today.
Sir Brahms won his most recent race, last month, jockey Centeno aboard as today and also for the horse’s two most recent wins, which came last June. The trainer (Sillaman) is the same who saddles He’s One Wild Dude and considering Sir Brahms won back-to-back last June he could put in his second winning effort in a row in this situation.
Liquid Aloha has won two of his last three races and has earned all five career wins on grass. He fits on all counts and gets North American leading jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr., for the first time. That’s a positive sign because in the past 18 months, when Ortiz, Jr. has teamed up with this trainer (Cibelli), they have won 9 of 33 times, which is a pretty good 27% percentage.
Bets:
Win Bets: He’s One Wild Dude and Sir Brahms to win at odds of 7 to 2 or higher.
When making multiple win bets, use a “Dutching” tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.
Exacta: He’s One Wild Dude, Sir Brahms and Liquid Aloha over He’s One Wild Dude, Sir Brahms, Liquid Aloha, Front Line Paige and Ministers Strike.
Trifecta: He’s One Wild Dude, Sir Brahms and Liquid Aloha over He’s One Wild Dude, Sir Brahms, Liquid Aloha, Front Line Paige and Ministers Strike over He’s One Wild Dude, Sir Brahms, Liquid Aloha, Front Line Paige and Ministers Strike.
James W. Murphy Stakes – Race 5 at Pimlico – Post Time 12:51 PM Eastern
Real News has done little wrong in three races to date, winning his first two starts then finishing second last month in his third career start. His last two races were on grass like today’s race, but were sprints at five and one-half furlongs. However, he is bred to run as well or better at this longer distance and, as a horse who comes on strongly in the latter stages of the race, won’t have to expend any energy as likely pacesetter Thomas Shelby, who is also stretching out from a sprint to a route and who has led in the early stages of his last two routes, goes fast from the start. Although Real News only managed second last time out, the winner was Bulletin, who won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint last fall and who is a superstar in the making. With a very sharp workout coming into the race showing great physical condition, Real News is one of two who appear to have the bulk of the probability to win this race.
Current is the other main win contender, although he is winless in five races since last October when victorious in the Grade 3 Bourbon Stakes on turf. However, four of those five efforts can be ignored. After the Bourbon win, Current had trouble at the start in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf when starting last of 14 and although he lost his shot to win he did pass half the field to end up seventh. The connections wanted to see if he was “Derby” material after that and his dirt effort last November in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes is irrelevant, as was his effort in March in the Florida Derby. In between those two, Current ran okay when rallying from ninth to third in the Dania Beach Stakes on turf in February, so essentially this is his second turf route start of the year and that gives him a decent shot to improve off his Dania Beach effort and back to the form shown winning the Bourbon Stakes on grass last fall.
Bets:
Win Bets: Real News and Current to win at odds of 2 to 1 or higher.
When making multiple win bets, use a “Dutching” tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.
Exacta: Real News and Current over ALL.
Gallorette Stakes – Race 10 at Pimlico – Post Time 4:05 PM Eastern
Mitchell Road has never been worse than second in six races, winning four times. The last win came in a stakes and the horse she beat came back to win the Distaff Turf Mile on Derby day, a higher level race than this one. Her last effort earned a 111 Equibase figure which is significantly better than any of the other eight horses entered here and she’s in the more than capable hands of Hall-of-Fame trainer Bill Mott, so all signs are GO for another big race.
I’m So Fancy makes her first start in the U.S., having run 20 times in Europe previously, the most recent last September. She was second to a very good horse (Magical) in a group two race last July and won a group 3 race last September in Ireland. When comparing European form to U.S. races, group three stakes are actually a bit tougher than grade 3 races so essentially I’m So Fancy won against tougher horses than she faces here. The big question is whether she’s ready to run her best off an eight month layoff but she’s been putting in consistent workouts and perhaps even if she’s only 80% fit she can run well enough to be right there at the finish with Mitchell Road.
Inflexibility is also making her first start since last fall. She finished second in a pair of important turf stakes in New York and Canada in May and June and ran third in September in another top level race before a sixth place effort which led to the layoff she’s coming back from today. Considering Inflexibility won in April, 2018, following six months off I don’t think she’s going to be anything less than 100% fit to run and run well so she rounds out a trio of win contenders.
Bets:
Win bets: Mitchell Road to win at 5/2 or more.
Exactas: Mitchell Road over I’m So Fancy, Inflexibility, Dynatail, Viva Vegas and ThewayIam, THEN ALSO play the reverse of that which is I’m So Fancy, Inflexibility, Dynatail, Viva Vegas and ThewayIam over Mitchell Road.
Trifectas: We will play Mitchell Road to finish either first or second along with the same horses in the exacta above as follows: Mitchell Road over I’m So Fancy, Inflexibility, Dynatail, Viva Vegas and ThewayIam over I’m So Fancy, Inflexibility, Dynatail, Viva Vegas and ThewayIam.
Then also I’m So Fancy, Inflexibility, Dynatail, Viva Vegas and ThewayIam over Mitchell Road over I’m So Fancy, Inflexibility, Dynatail, Viva Vegas and ThewayIam.
Preakness Stakes – Race 13 at Pimlico – Post Time 6:48 PM Eastern
In recent history, the Preakness Stakes has been won predominantly by horses which are on the lead, or a couple of lengths at most from the pacesetter, in the early stages. The recent exception was Exaggerator in 2016, but in that race there was a hotly contested pace which affected the chances of the early leaders and those in close pursuit. With that in mind, Warrior’s Charge is the horse I give slight preference to among three who I feel have the largest probability to win this year’s Preakness. After third place finishes in the first three starts of his career from last November through February, all when Warrior’s Charge was fifth or further back in the early stages, trainer Cox decided to switch tactics and since then Warrior’s Charge is a perfect two-for-two. After finishing third at a mile in February, when allowed to cruise to the lead of his own accord in his next race, Warrior’s Charge earned a then career-best 103 Equibase Speed Figure, which was a huge improvement off the 87 figure one race prior. Four weeks later when again allowed to set the pace, Warrior’s Charge improved to earn a 108 figure. Putting those efforts and figures into perspective, likely favorite Improbable earned 109 and 108 figures when second in the Rebel Stakes and Arkansas Derby, respectively, and a 107 figure when fifth in the Derby. Watching a replay of the Warrior’s Charge most recent victory on April 12, it appears he has more improving to do. Some people might be concerned that jockey Florent Geroux, who rode both Warrior’s Charge and Owendale (both trained by Brad Cox), chose to ride Owendale in the Preakness, but since the jockey who rides Warrior’s Charge in the Preakness is Javier Castellano, currently the second leading jockey in North America, I think those concerns can be put to rest. Having put in a strong workout one week ago in preparation for the race and with a good inside post to take full use of his early speed but without getting into a pace battle with any other horses which may want to run on or near the front, I think Warrior’s Charge can successfully play “come catch me” with the field in this year’s Preakness.
If the scenario whereby Warrior’s Charge doesn’t lead from start to finish, by virtue of getting into an early battle with another horse, Brad Cox has Owendale to charge home and win. Owendale won two of his first three races around two turns, in September and again in January, before a poor eighth place finish in the Risen Star Stakes in February. Given two months off Owendale returned in the Lexington Stakes last month and put in a powerful and visually impressive rally when going from eighth to first on the far turn and from three and one-half lengths back to two lengths in ahead before continuing in front to the wire. That was a breakout effort which earned Owendale a career best 106 figure, 11 points better than any previous race. With a very sharp five furlong workout in 59.2 last week to show he is in good physical shape, if Owendale can repeat or improve off his last race, he might give trainer Cox the first and second place finishers in this year’s Preakness.
War of Will once again gets the rail post just as he did in the Derby but that is not nearly as disadvantageous in the Preakness as it was two weeks ago. In spite of the poor draw in the Derby (which requires a horse to use a lot of early energy to gain position and not get forced to take back as many horses move towards the rail for the first turn), War of Will was in a great position, fourth and one and one-half lengths behind the leader with about a quarter mile to run. It’s debatable whether he would have gotten through the space between Maximum Security and Long Range Toddy had Maximum Security kept a straight course, but after the incident and losing a length or two, War of Will re-engaged with Maximum Security for a number of strides before tiring back to eighth. It must be noted that War of Will does pull his jockey in the early stages which suggests he resents not being allowed to run the way he wants to run, but whereas many horses don’t respond when asked following fighting the jockey, War of Will has enough competitive spirit that he still does respond, and does so well. That spirit, and his athletic ability, resulted in strong wins earlier this year in the LeComte Stakes and the Risen Star Stakes, the first of the two earning the colt a career-best 107 figure. Following the Risen Star, War of Will was sent to post as the prohibitive favorite in the Louisiana Derby, but shortly after the start had something go amiss as he lost his action and was running erratically, resulting in a ninth-place effort. Considering he rebounded from that to run as he did in the Derby, War of Will certainly must be considered a contender to run well enough to contend in this race.
Others:
This next group consists of five horses that can run well but who I believe are a cut below the top three. They are Alwaysmining, Anothertwistafate, Bodexpress, Bourbon War and Improbable. Alwaysmining earned 109 and 104 figures in his last two races which fit nicely with the top three contenders. He is going for his seventh win in a row, the first six earned leading from start to finish and the most recent when third in the early stages, showing he may not be a need-the-lead type. Just the same, no horse who has won some of the stakes races he has won on the Maryland circuit has performed well in the Preakness because it is a big step up from those non-graded stakes races to this caliber of race. Anothertwistafate finished second to Owendale in the Lexington Stakes, earning a 103 figure and although I believe he can finish second or third here there is no reason to believe he can turn the tables on Owendale or beat War of Will or Warrior’s Charge if they run their best. The reason for this belief is when watching the Lexington, Anothertwistafate was on the inside and well ahead of Owendale with about three-eighths of a mile to run, but was out finished by Owendale, who had to go wide on the turn. Bodexpress has a lot of heart, as evidenced when second in the Florida Derby (with a 97 figure) then when in contention in the Kentucky Derby with about five-sixteenths of a mile to run before checking hard when the path he was running in was closed. There is no way to know if he would have continued to run competitively or not, but considering his Florida Derby effort and the fact his sire, Bodemeister, finished second in the 2012 Preakness (after finishing second in the Derby), I must respect Bodexpress as having a chance to be in the top three. Bourbon War was a non-threatening fourth in the Florida Derby but proved competitive at the level with a 110 figure earned when second in the Fountain of Youth Stakes prior to that. He comes from far back but his trainer is changing to a short cup blinker for the Preakness to help him focus and perhaps that may help him return to the form shown in the Fountain of Youth. Improbable has run the same race in all three 2019 starts, running virtually evenly for the last quarter mile. He lost a one length lead in the Rebel and lost by a neck then he was second the entire length of the stretch in the Arkansas Derby, before being virtually the same distance from the leader in the Kentucky Derby for the last half-mile. His last three figures of 109, 108 and 107 appear competitive with the top contenders in this race, but his running style is “one paced,” which is fine for a mile and one-half distance like the Belmont Stakes, but unless Mike Smith can get Improbable motivated to pass a horse in the stretch, he is likely to get a minor award once again.
Bets:
Win Bets: Warrior’s Charge and Owendale to win at odds of 3 to 1 or higher.
When making multiple win bets, use a “Dutching” tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.
