Keenland – Saturday, Oct 7

Friday – Keeneland Race 8 – Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix


Solid field of 11 sprinting six furlongs on the main track. If the #11 Whitmore (3-1) of the spring shows up today, then everyone else is running for 2nd place. That being said I don’t trust him and am not one to play a short-priced favorite who is coming into this race off two subpar performances. I landed on #2 Threefiveinia (6-1) who should sit a good stalking position in a race loaded with early heat. I’ll key the Brown trainee with #4 Loose On the Town (12-1), #7 Favorite Tale (6-1), #10 It’s the Journey (12-1) and #11 Whitmore.



Saturday – Keeneland Race 7 First Lady


A salty field of seven going the flat mile on the turf is led by the morning line favorite #4 Roca Rojo (2-1). The Strategic Prince mare has won 6 of 10 in her career and looks formidable but I will try to beat her. I have always thought her best races have come when there is a bit of give in the ground, which will most not likely be the case on Saturday. #6 Dickenson (5-2) is an alternative, as she is two of three at the distance and was beaten just one and a half lengths last time out to the world class Lady Eli. That being said, I will try to beat both of them with #3 Dona Bruja (5-2). The Argentinian bred has won 10 of 13 in her career and two of three since making her stateside debut. I believe the cutback in distance will help her closing kick and this is her home course. Workout tab coming in is not too shabby either. Bruja for me.




Saturday – Keeneland Race 9 Shadwell Turf Mile


The pinnacle race on the Keeneland card is the Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile. #8 Miss Temple City (3-1) is the tepid morning line favorite and is the reigning champ, having taken this race last year. She loves the track and has been in the exacta in all four starts here. She is a logical contender but I believe is beatable. #10 Heart to Heart (7-2) has a tactical advantage as he looks to be controlling speed. If he can get away with comfortable fractions he can wire this field. He is as consistent as they come and has filled out the exacta in eight of his last twelve starts. He is an “A” for me in this race along with #3 Suedois (15-1). Suedois is shipping over from across the pond where he is coming out of a winning performance in a Group 2 at Leopardstown. His trainer has two in this race but notice who the jockey chose….Suedois. The price is right and he may be able to pull the upset. The last horse of mention worth having on your tickets is #6 Ballagh Rocks (10-1). The colt by Storm Atlantic is coming off a third to World Approval and he was just beaten a half-length in the Makers Mile at this track and distance in April.

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Ellis Starr

Ellis is a well respected handicapper and contributor of AmWager. He has been a public handicapper for more than twenty years, educating racing fans of all skill levels with detailed commentary few other handicappers provide.

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