Key Horse Races & Expert Handicapper Bets - March 27, 2021
Cutler Bay Stakes – Race 11 at Gulfstream Park – Post Time 4:43 PM Eastern
Annex is a standout and a single (the only horse to use) on pick 3 and 4 tickets, which is why I started with this race in spite of the fact he will likely be the favorite. The colt has run twice and both were visually impressive efforts, first when rallying from eighth to first in the last 3/16 of a mile then last out when rallying from sixth early and 22 lengths behind, to win by a head on the wire in the Palm Beach Stakes last month, pretty much an identical non-graded stakes as this one. With ability to go along with a fantastic mental attitude, Annex is the only horse in the field who has won a stakes on turf this year and he’s still got improving to do in his third career start off a field high 103 Equibase figure (the next best is 99).
Handicapper Picks
Win: “IF” Annex is around 8 to 5 or more at post time, he is a low odds overlay win bet as his probability to win suggests his fair odds are about 3 to 2..
If Annex is lower odds than 8 to 5 then we can make as much, perhaps more, betting him on double, pick 3 and pick 4 tickets.
Double:
Race 11: Annex
Race 12: Con Lima, Bow Bow Girl
Race 11: Annex
Race 12: Con Lima, Bow Bow Girl, Crazy Beautiful, Len Lo Lady, Millefeuille
Pick 3:
Race 11: Annex
Race 12: Con Lima, Bow Bow Girl
Race 13: Enjoyitwhilewecan, Morning Molly, Sorrel, Crystalle, Always Shopping
Pick 4:
Race 11: Annex
Race 12: Con Lima, Bow Bow Girl
Race 13: Enjoyitwhilewecan, Morning Molly, Sorrel, Crystalle, Always Shopping
Race 14: Known Agenda, Greatest Honour, Spielberg
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Gulfstream Park Oaks – Race 12 at Gulfstream Park – Post Time 5:17 PM Eastern
Con Lima is the logical choice, coming off a runner-up effort (then moved up via disqualification) in the Herecomesthebride Stakes on turf, but with superb dirt form as well, but Bow Bow Girl has a shot to post the upset, given her powerful four length win at this distance over the track five weeks ago. Although just a maiden win, she’s facing a mild field for this grade two level and that win earned a 91 Equibase figure which is on par with the 92 figure Con Lima earned in her stakes race one week later. The key here is Dale Romans, who won this race TWICE in the last five years with horses having just broken their maidens, first with Go Maggie Go in 2016 and then with Coach Rocks in 2018. As a lightly raced filly whose light bulb just went on last out, Bow Bow Girl appears to be the horse with the most improving to do and very capable of winning, particularly of Lanerie chooses the same tactics used last month in victory when leading early on slow fractions and then accelerating exceptionally well in the late stages.
Con Lima began her career on dirt, finishing first or second in four straight, all sprints, including two stakes. Then after nearly three months off she moved to turf last December, trying two turns as well, and won two in a row including the Ginger Brew Stakes. Then when second in the Sweetest Chant Stakes after leading from the start in January, Con Lima closed well from seventh to second and was five wide into the stretch while rallying for second into a winner who was disqualified for interference with another horse, awarding Con Lima the win. Irad Ortiz, Jr. stays aboard and was up for a win the only time he rode her previous to last time out, and with the rail and good tactical speed it’s likely she and Bow Bow Girl will be first or second from start to finish.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Con Lima and Bow Bow Girl to win at odds of 2/1
When making multiple win bets, use a “Dutching” tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. A Dutching tool lets you set the amount you want to bet or the amount you want to win, then based on the odds your bets are proportioned accordingly. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.
Exacta & Trifecta: Con Lima and Bow Bow Girl over Con Lima, Bow Bow Girl, Crazy Beautiful, Len Lo Lady and Millefeuille.
Double:
Race 12: Con Lima, Bow Bow Girl
Race 13: Enjoyitwhilewecan, Morning Molly, Sorrel, Crystalle, Always Shopping
Pick 3:
Race 12: Con Lima, Bow Bow Girl
Race 13: Enjoyitwhilewecan, Morning Molly, Sorrel, Crystalle, Always Shopping
Race 14: Known Agenda, Greatest Honour, Spielberg
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Orchid Stakes – Race 13 at Gulfstream Park – Post Time 5:55 PM Eastern
Morning Molly has been first or second in ALL SEVEN races since her debut in January, 2019, the first of the seven coming after she took nine months off following that debut. Moving into stakes company in January, she won the Jersey Lilly Stakes in Texas then led late before being out-finished by the more seasoned Michelin in the Grade 2 Hillsborough Stakes. Dropping to this grade 3 level and getting Jose Ortiz to ride, this gal bred to run all day should appreciate the added distance and could easily add to her resume as well as make us a nice profit because in spite of being in the thick of the action on the wire in her last seven races she opens at 8 to 1.
Sorrel is an Irish bred filly making her U.S. debut for the top Clement barn and she could be something special in these long races for fillies and mares on the turf. She won three in a row in England last summer and fall, at distances ranging from a mile and one-half to a mile and five-eighths, so this 11 furlong trip is no concern, nor is the layoff at this marathon trip, particularly for Clement and with her excellent series of five furlong drills over the past two months.
Enjoyitwhilewecan is the real profit making horse in this race, opening at 20/1. Although she’s just one for 14 in her career, she’s only run five times on grass, and the last two are the only two that matter. Both came after she moved to the Maker barn and she finished second both times, one at a mile and seven-sixteenths (one sixteenth farther than she’s running today). We know she can get the trip and considering Maker’s prowess with stakes runners on grass in the past year this gal is not to be taken lightly because if he feels she belongs, particularly with Gaffalione riding, we will not argue.
Always Shopping opens as the nine to five favorite and will get bet down as she won the La Prevoyante Stakes in January as the even money favorite. She won at a mile and three-sixteenths over the course prior to that and both wins were with authority, so she can win again, but she’s no standout owing to the quality of a horse like Sorrel, the consistency of a horse like Morning Molly and the prowess Enjoyitwhilewecan’s trainer (Mike Maker).
Note I also used Crystalle on the pick 3, pick 4 and double tickets above and below. This is because Crystalle beat Enjoyitwhilewecan in the mile and seven-sixteenths race and if I think Enjoyitwhilewecan can win, it would be a mistake to leave Crystalle off tickets.
Handicapper Picks
Win: This is a race to bet two, possibly three horses, as they offer value against an overbet favorite.
Sorrel and Morning Molly should be bet to win at odds of 5 to 2 or more.
Enjoyitwhilewecan can be bet to win at odds of 6/1 or more.
Luckily, we don’t have to do the math figuring how much to bet on horses at various odds by using the Dutching tool at Amwager, which will proportion our wagers perfectly for the best edge.
Exacta: Just for the minimum $1 I would play Enjoyitwhilewecan over ALL then also (the opposite) ALL over Enjoyitwhilewecan.
Trifecta:
Morning Molly, Sorrel and Always Shopping over Morning Molly, Sorrel, Always Shopping, Enjoyitwhilewecan and Crystalle over ALL.
Double:
Race 13: Enjoyitwhilewecan, Morning Molly, Sorrel, Crystalle, Always Shopping
Race 14: Known Agenda, Greatest Honour, Spielberg
