Key Horse Races & Expert Handicapper Bets - May 22, 2021
Race 8 at Belmont – Post Time 4:40 PM Eastern
Trinni Luck, Bankers Daughter and Breakfastatbonnies are the win contenders.
Trinni Luck won her only start and although a maiden claiming race last July it was against open (not restricted) company. She’s been away since then but is now in the top Rudy Rodriguez barn and gets his #1 jockey in Manny Franco as she faces New York bred only. Her last work was the best of the day for a half-mile and she faces a pretty weak field so if able to run as well as she did 10 months ago she can post the upset opening at 8 to 1.
Bankers Daughter is 1 for 14 with six runner up finishes, including two of her last three. The most recent came last month off a three month layoff and there’s no discounting jockey Cancel’s ability but she still gets an UPGRADE here with Saez riding for the first time so if she can run just the slightest bit better second off the layoff or with the jockey change she can win and opening at 9/2 must be considered.
Breakfastatbonnies is to be respected as a win contender for doubles but not as a win bet opening at 9 to 5. She won her first start on January 2 by 11 lengths so she was the 3/5 favorite at this level next time out in March but disappointed and ended up third. She has the ability to win but is NO lock.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Trinni Luck AND Bankers Daughter to win at odds of 5 to 2 or more.
When making multiple win bets, use a “Dutching” tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. A Dutching tool lets you set the amount you want to bet or the amount you want to win, then based on the odds your bets are proportioned accordingly. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.
Exacta: Box Trinni Luck and Bankers Daughter
There’s little value in including favorite Breakfastatbonnies on exacta tickets but you might consider an exacta box of Breakfastatbonnies and Trinni Luck if the latter is anywhere near her 8/1 starting odds.
Double:
Race 8: Trinni Luck, Bankers Daughter
Race 9: Epic Dreamer, Get Smokin, Delaware, Decorated Invader, Flavius
Race 8: Trinni Luck, Bankers Daughter, Breakfastatbonnies
Race 9: Epic Dreamer, Get Smokin, Delaware
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Seek Again Stakes – Race 9 at Belmont – Post Time 5:12 PM Eastern
Five horses have some chance to win but the ones which will make us the most profit are Epic Dreamer, Get Smokin and Delaware. The other two are Decorated Invader and Flavius.
Epic Dreamer gets the rail for this mile turf trip, certainly a plus. He also gets Irad Ortiz, Jr. another plus. He had run EXCLUSIVELY on dirt in his first 15 starts but after moving to the Casse barn last December, he tried turf. He ran miserably on it, finishing seventh, then sixth when trying blinkers in January on dirt. However, the combination of blinkers and turf helps him considerably in his most recent race in March, at this mile trip on turf, where he won easily with a strong 99 Equibase figure. Earlier in his career he had earned 108 and 114 figures which stack up against the BEST in here (Flavius-114) so now that he’s back in winning form, proven at a mile on turf, and with Ortiz, Jr. and the rail, Epic Dreamer has potential to post the upset, opening at 12/1.
Get Smokin won the Grade 2 Hill Prince Stakes last October at Belmont at this mile trip, with Decorated Invader a head behind. Still, Get Smokin opens at 5/1 here compared to 5/2 for Decorated Invader only because his trainer is Tom Bush and not Chad Brown. Dropping in class significantly from the Grade 1 Maker’s Mark Mile and returning to the course where two of his three wins have come, Get Smokin has a big shot. Similarly, the other Brown entrant, Delaware may go to post at odds higher than they should be. He won the nearly identical Dangers Hour Stakes at Aqueduct last month at 10/1 with Franco aboard for the first time. Franco rides back and the 110 figure is the BEST last race figure in the field.
Decorated Invader and Flavius are both good horses but neither is a standout and we can use both on doubles started in the last race, as well as try to split them by not putting them in both first and second on any exacta or trifecta tickets as in the examples below.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Epic Dreamer at 3 to 1 or higher.
Consider a second, smaller win bet on either Get Smokin or Delaware (whichever has the higher odds near post time) at 3 to 1 or more.
Exactas:
Epic Dreamer, Get Smokin and Delaware over Epic Dreamer, Get Smokin, Delaware, Decorated Invader and Flavius
Get Smokin, Delaware, Decorated Invader and Flavius over Epic Dreamer
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Race 5 at Santa Anita – Post Time 6:15 PM Eastern
La Gioiosa makes her U.S. debut, adding lasix, getting the rail and Rispoli in a Maiden Race. She won versus winners last July in her second start but was disqualified, then she finished third in a GROUP 3 Stakes race before being 16/1 (not a long shot by any means) in the 14 horse Group 1 Prix Marcel Boussac. She had issues in the race and so comes to the states to run on Lasix and has been working splendidly. She towers over this maiden field on class and provides a strong single (the only horse to use) on pick 3 tickets started in this race.
We can consider Cider Apple and Miss Bella Ciao for second and third, the former third of seven and beaten a nose and a half-length in her most recent start and the latter just another length behind in fourth. Both fillies have improving to do and should hit the board today.
Handicapper Picks
Win: La Gioiosa to win at odds of 3 to 2 or more.
Exacta: La Gioiosa over Cider Apple and Miss Bella Ciao
Trifecta: La Gioiosa over Cider Apple and Miss Bella Ciao over ALL
Pick 3:
Race 5: La Gioiosa
Race 6: ALL
Race 7: Golden, Going Global, Madone
Race 5: La Gioiosa
Race 6: Vaporized
Race 7: Golden, Going Global, Madone
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Race 6 at Santa Anita – Post Time 6:48 PM Eastern
For the pick 3 we will use ALL on one ticket and Vaporized on the other. This is a fairly wide-open maiden race for California Breds. Vaporized gets the outside post and enters the race with a very strong 47.4 half-mile drill which was the third best of 48 on the day as her most recent coming into the race. Trainer Mulhall has an above average record with first timers and I think the field is below average for the level so begging to be won by a first time starter.
Handicapper Picks
Bet Vaporized to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more.
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Honeymoon Stakes – Race 7 at Santa Anita – Post Time 7:19 PM Eastern
Golden showed a lot of ability in January in only the second start of her career when rallying strongly from sixth to win going away. Following a poor fifth place effort in March, Golden lagged far back in the early stages of the Senorita Stakes last month and was full of run on the turn when going from 10th to 5th with an eighth of a mile to go. At that point the filly shifted out and found a seam, rallying to get second at the finish line one length from winner Madone. However, the stewards ruled she had interfered with another horse and so she was disqualified and placed sixth. With a jockey change to Umberto Rispoli and a career-best 87 Equibase figure to improve upon from the Senorita, Golden has an upset chance in the Honeymoon Stakes.
Going Global (IRE) beat 13 horses in a handicap race last November in her native Ireland, although still a maiden, before taking three months off to acclimate to her new surroundings in the United States. Debuting in mid-February, Going Global (IRE) won the Sweet Life Stakes, a sprint, earning a career-best 99 Equibase Speed Figure in the process. Stretching out to two-turns, Going Global (IRE) won both the China Doll Stakes and Providencia Stakes, the latter effort tying the 99 figure earned two months earlier. Jockey Flavien Prat has been aboard for all three local starts to date and rides back in the Honeymoon Stakes so it appears Going Global (IRE) will be tough to keep from winning her fifth race in a row. Still, as the prohibitive favorite the only way to make money on her winning is on pick 3 tickets and in the race on exacta tickets with a horse at decent odds like Golden.
Madone won the first three starts of her career in the summer and fall of last year. Two of those wins came in stakes races including the Surfer Girl Stakes at Santa Anita. In the Surfer Girl Madone earned a strong 93 figure. After trying some of the top two year old fillies on turf and finishing eighth of 14 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf in November, Madone was given time off to mature. Returning to the races three weeks ago as if she had never been away for six months, Madone won the Senorita Stakes even after stumbling at the start to be away last of 10. In the Senorita Madone earned an 89 figure. Jockey Juan Hernandez, who is the second leading jockey (behind Flavien Prat) at the Santa Anita meeting, rode Madone for the first time in the Senorita. He rides again in the Honeymoon so we can expect another big effort, potentially good enough to win, particularly if the filly logically improves in her second start following the long layoff.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Golden to win at 3 to 1 or higher.
Exactas:
Box Golden and Going Global, Box Golden and Madone
