Key Horse Races & Expert Handicapper Bets – September 18, 2021
Jockey Club Oaks Invitational – Race 9 at Belmont Park – Post Time 5:14 Eastern
I usually opt for the European invaders in a race like this, but in this case Higher Truth has to get top billing. She was bred in Ireland but has only raced in the U.S. and each race since her debut in March was significantly better than the other in terms of her speed figures. In the similar Belmont Oaks in July, Higher Truth finished fast to miss second by a nose and the win by a half-length to European invader Santa Barbara, from the powerful Aiden O’Brien barn, but that filly is not back for this race. Then in the similar Saratoga Oaks last month, Higher Truth kept coming and was beaten just three quarters of a length on the wire. She’s worked well since and should be tough to beat in this field.
Harajuku is also an Irish bred filly, this one making her North American debut. Her only win this year came in May in the Group 3 Prix Cleopatre, the equivalent of a grade 2 race. Then in her most recent start in the Group 2 Prix de la Nonette, Harajuku was fourth in a blanket finish, beaten two necks and a nose on the wire. In that most recent race, Harajuku earned a 110 Equibase Speed Figure which we can use to measure how fast she’s run compared to others, and the only other horse in the field to break 110 is Higher Truth, who earned a 111 figure in the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks Invitational. As such, these two fillies stick out here.
Creative Flair may have a shot as she makes her second U.S. start but although she rallied from seventh to third in the Saratoga Oaks, Higher Truth was still more than a length in front of her so if they both improve at the same rate, Higher Truth will once again beat Creative Flair.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets:
Higher Truth can be bet to win at odds of 9 to 5 or more.
Exactas:
Box Higher Truth and Harajuku
Higher Truth and Harajuku over Higher Truth, Harajuku, Creative Flair
Doubles:
Race 9: Higher Truth, Harajuku
Race 10: Tokyo Gold, Bolshoi Ballet, Yibir
Pick 3:
Race 9: Higher Truth, Harajuku
Race 10: Tokyo Gold, Bolshoi Ballet, Yibir
Race 11: Repo Rocks, Advance Notice
Race 9: Higher Truth, Harajuku
Race 10: Tokyo Gold, Bolshoi Ballet, Yibir
Race 11: ALL
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Jockey Club Derby Invitational – Race 10 at Belmont Park – Post Time 5:45 Eastern
Tokyo Gold ran tremendously well in his first U.S. start, in July in the Belmont Derby, pretty much identical to this race in terms of class but at 10 furlongs whereas this race is 12 furlongs. In his last European start, Tokyo Gold won a strong group 3 race in Italy at 11 furlongs so I have no doubt he can run this mile and one-half distance successfully. That race in Italy carried a purse of $771,700 purse so was as strong in terms of class as this field. John Velazquez rides back and with the experience of a U.S. race under his belt, Tokyo Gold, who opens at 8 to 1, offers a ton of value for a win bet as his odds should be as low as the other two European entrants in this race.
Bolshoi Ballet won the Belmont Derby with a quick turn of foot in the final yards, but then regressed with no excuse in the Saratoga Derby one month later after stalking the pacesetter and being within a half-length of the lead into the stretch. He had similar form in Europe, winning the Group 3 Derby Trial in May then finishing seventh as the favorite in the Irish Derby one month later. Certainly the pattern suggests he can rebound to top form so must be used on any and all pick 3, pick 4 or double tickets played. On the other hand, opening at 5/2 he’s not a good win bet.
Yibir makes his U.S. debut for the very strong Charles Appleby barn. Appleby doesn’t start many horses in North America but has a strong six for 19 record over the last five years with those horses he’s brought here, all in graded stakes. Yabir won the Group 1 Voltigeur Stakes at this 12 furlong trip last month so there’s no question about his handling the distance or the class level. Just the same, opening at 2 to 1 he just doesn’t offer requisite value for a win bet but is an absolute must to use on any exotic tickets played involving this race.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Tokyo Gold at odds of 2 to 1 or more.
Exactas:
Box Tokyo Gold and Bolshoi Ballet AND Box Tokyo Gold and Yabir
Trifectas:
Box Tokyo Gold, Bolshoi Ballet and Yabir
Doubles:
Race 10: Tokyo Gold, Bolshoi Ballet, Yibir
Race 11: Repo Rocks, Advance Notice
Race 10: Tokyo Gold, Bolshoi Ballet, Yibir
Race 11: ALL
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Race 11 at Belmont Park – Post Time 6:16 PM Eastern
Advance Notice has finished first or second in seven of 11 career races. That’s the first big plus when pursuing horses to KEY on exacta tickets in the nightcap. He finished second when last seen at the end of July and won prior to that at Belmont at this six furlong trip, the first of TWO KEY REASONS he should be strongly considered here. The other is just before the win he finished third at a mile here at Belmont too, and was claimed out of that race, the first time he was claimed in his ninth career start. For his first nine starts he was owned by Repole Stable, then two races after the race claimed originally, he was RECLAIMED by Repole Stable and now finds himself “Protected” as he can’t be claimed out of this starter allowance race. That’s a big sign, as is the fact he’s now in the strong Rodriguez barn and gets Franco, who rode him to three big runner-up efforts in a row last January and February.
Repo Rocks is the other KEY to profit here, and for similar reasons. He was claimed out of his last start, on 9/3 at Saratoga, by excellent trainer Vasquez. He was closing big in that race after clipping heels at the start and he missed by just three-quarters of a length in spite of that trouble. Irad Ortiz, Jr. rode him that day and to his ONLY win, which came at Belmont in June. Ortiz, Jr. rides back off the claim and the fact the top jockey stays with the horse even for new connections speaks volume for how he (and his agent) feels about the horse’s chances to run well.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Bet bot Advance Notice and Repo Rocks to win at odds of 2 to 1 or higher.
When making multiple win bets, use a “Dutching” tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. A Dutching tool lets you set the amount you want to bet or the amount you want to win, then based on the odds your bets are proportioned accordingly. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.
Note that for one of the pick 3 and daily double plays from previous races we are using “ALL” and that is because of the nature of this type of race where every horse, even those at high odds, has potential to run a race good enough to win.
Exactas:
Box Advance Notice and Repo Rocks
Advance Notice and Repo Rocks over ALL
