Gulfstream Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, April 11, 2020

Race 10 at Gulfstream Park – Post Time 4:54 PM Eastern

Gogo Shoes showed a lot of maturity winning last month in her second career start, stalking in second and third early and drawing off by four lengths in a field of 12. She’s got a lot of improving to do and the 80 last race Equibase figure is the third best in the field. The top last race figure horse in the field, Boerne (88) earned her win (also in career start #2) leading from start to finish and gets the rail. Lastchanceforlove earned an 81 figure and also when leading from start to finish. I’m going to root for a big pace battle between Lastchanceforlove and Boerne which puts Gogo Shoes in a great spot to win her second in a row.

Chart won after stalking in second, in her debut in January, then was overmatched in the Davona Dale Stakes at the end of February. The win earned an 83 figure right there with Gogo Shoes’ 80 figure and she gets a red hot Gaffalione for the first time so all signs are “go” for an effort good enough to win if she runs back to the debut.

Boerne has a shot to get a lonely early lead IF she can outgun Lastchanceforlove. It’s tough from the rail and Tale of Success, who gets the two post, also has early speed, maybe even Good Credence, who is fresh off a six month layoff. Boerne put in a huge best of 113 half-mile work and if she clears she could play “come catch me” so I’ll reluctantly use her on pick 3 and double tickets.

Win: Bet both Gogo Shoes and Chart at odds of 5 to 2 or higher.

When making multiple win bets, use a “Dutching” tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

Box Gogo Shoes and Chart then also box Gogo Shoes, Chart and Boerne

Double: Gogo Shoes, Chart and Boerne in Race 10 with Supreme Aura, Conviction Trade and Battle of Blenheim in Race 11.

Pick 3:
Race 10: Gogo Shoes, Chart and Boerne
Race 11: Supreme Aura, Conviction Trade and Battle of Blenheim
Race 12: Princess Causeway, Heiressall and Pacific Gale


Race 11 at Gulfstream Park – Post Time 5:24 PM Eastern

Supreme Aura runs first off the claim by sharp trainer Fawkes, held out two months but basically back at the same level. The key to his being live is Paco Lopez rides, with a pretty strong record on just a few starters in the last 15 months (10 for 35) for Fawkes. The 6 to 1 morning line may hold as Supreme Aura has only run once on turf in 16 career starts, finishing off the board. However, being by Candy Ride I am not concerned about his ability to run well on grass and his win before the layoff versus similar was very sharp, earning a 106 figure which is third best in the field and within three points of the top last race figure horse, Honey Won’t, who gets a poor outside post (11). Supreme Aura ran as well three before last too so repeating either in this situation helps him run well enough to win.

Battle of Blenheim is a contender for exotics and multiple race bets (like the double and pick 3) but he’s a poor win bet as he opens at 9 to 5. Battle of Blenheim won two in a row, in December and January, before taking three months off but the win in December came off a four month rest so the layoff is of no concern. Just the same, the wins came at similar levels and the best of the two earned a 105 figure which is good enough to win but doesn’t make him a standout.

Conviction Trade is an interesting longshot I have to consider for my wagers, opening at 15/1. He comes back from three months off and his last three races were poor efforts where he finished eighth, third and fifth. However, he won in his debut in September, in a turf route at Belmont, with a strong rally from 7th of 8 early, and he’s been working steadily on grass for his return. If this weren’t a fairly weak race after the top two contenders, I’d have no interest but at double digit odds he should be given some respect.

Win: Supreme Aura to win at odds of 5 to 2 or more.

Box Supreme Aura, Battle of Blenheim and Conviction Trade.

Double: Supreme Aura, Battle of Blenheim and Conviction Trade in Race 11 with Princess Causeway, Heiressall and Pacific Gale in Race 12.


Race 12 at Gulfstream Park – Post Time 5:54 PM Eastern

Heiressall is four for 13 in her career, with the first three of those coming in the summer of 2018 and the fourth last summer. Still, she may have an edge here worthy of betting her anywhere near her morning line odds of 6 to 1 on a couple of counts. First, she returned from three months off on 2/8 at this level and was sent to post at 9 to 5, finishing okay from last of six to third like a horse who was short of her best. Then, she was overmatched in the Grade 3 Hurricane Bertie Stakes last month, fading to seventh. Much more realistically placed here, she gets a BIG jockey change to Lopez, who rode her just once previously when second in the Sunshine Millions Distaff Stakes before the layoff. That happens also to be the best race she’s ever run, so third off a layoff and dropping from stakes back to allowance company she could repeat that effort which should be good enough to win, with one exception.

That exception is Princess Causeway, who also drops from graded stakes to allowance. The only difference is she’s making her first start since the end of November when seventh in the Grade 2 Falls City Handicap, also around two turns. Before that she won handily in allowance company in a sprint. She’s working well for her 2020 debut and doesn’t need the lead to win, which could be a very beneficial running style as J P’s Delight, Liza Star and Jakarta ALL appear to be need-the-lead types to set up her kick, and that of Heiressall.

I’ll toss in Pacific Gale for pick 3 and double tickets, and the exacta, but she’s tough to bet anywhere near her 7 to 2 morning line. She hasn’t won since October, 2018, at Belmont. Granted, her eight races since have all been stakes and she should run well but she hasn’t been seen since July either. Saez rides and that’s a good sign but I just can’t trust her with a win bet.

Win: Bet both Heiressall and Princess Causeway at odds of 5 to 2 or higher.

When making multiple win bets, use a “Dutching” tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

Exacta: Box Heiressall, Princess Causeway and Pacific Gale.

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Ellis Starr

Ellis is a well respected handicapper and contributor of AmWager. He has been a public handicapper for more than twenty years, educating racing fans of all skill levels with detailed commentary few other handicappers provide.

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