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Key Races & Bets for Saturday April 19th, 2025

Bay Shore Stakes – Race 8 at Aqueduct – Post Time 4:54 PM Eastern Win contenders: Pascaline, Mo Plex The Bay Shore Stakes used to be run on Wood Memorial Day (four weeks before the Derby) for three-year-olds which were solely sprinters or which got a late start and weren’t...

Key Races & Bets for Saturday April 19th, 2025

Bay Shore Stakes - Race 8 at Aqueduct - Post Time 4:54 PM Eastern

Win contenders: Pascaline, Mo Plex

The Bay Shore Stakes used to be run on Wood Memorial Day (four weeks before the Derby) for three-year-olds which were solely sprinters or which got a late start and weren’t ready for two-turns. It’s now one week later and like a better prep for races like the Woody Stephens on Belmont Day and similar races for three-year-olds around one turn. Although this year’s Bay Shore Stakes only drew five, there’s a potential standout here in Pascaline and a very consistent horse in Mo Plex to possibly win or complete the exacta. Pascaline has won both starts in his career. The first was a six and one-half furlong sprint last August and the other was a one-turn mile win in the Laurel Futurity in September, where he defeated eight other horses easily. He may not be favored based on those two races not being in New York, the most recent being seven months ago and his being bred in West Virginia, but that’s fine with me. His dam, a daughter of Harlan’s Holiday, has produced three other winners and one of them was a VERY good horse named Social Clinic, who excelled at this seven-furlong trip and who won more than $400K while finishing first or second in 25 of 34 races. Pascaline ran maturely in both starts, rallying from eighth of 10 and from third, and he’s going to be more physically and mentally mature as a three-year-old so could run even better.

Mo Plex has never missed the board in six races, winning three. He is a NY bred but won the open (not restricted) Sanford Stakes last July, and unlike the returning Pascaline, Mo Plex ran on March 3 following four months off, missing by a half-length at a mile. He will relish the seven-furlong trip and based on the running styles of the other four, it is likely Franco will put him on the lead from the start, from where he could successfully play “come catch me.”

Handicapper Picks

Win:
Pascaline at 2 to 1 or higher.
Mo Plex at 5 to 2 or higher.

Exacta: Box Pascaline and Mo Plex

Federico Tesio Stakes - Race 11 at Laurel - Post Time 5 PM Eastern

Win contenders: Pay Billy, Surfside Moon, Kentucky Outlaw
Exacta contenders (second and third): Sacred Thunder, Happily Delusional

The Federico Tesio Stakes, run at one mile and one-eighth, is considered the local (Maryland) prep to the Preakness next month, and the winner gets an automatic start in that race. That’s the likely reason 10 entered, although only three appear capable of winning, Two others, both which finished second to two of the three top contenders in their most recent races, have a shot to complete the exacta or round out the trifecta.

Pay Billy would be going for his fifth win in a row and third straight stakes win if not for missing by a nose after leading late one before last in the Miracle Wood Stakes. He bounced back big time off that effort four weeks later in the Private Terms Stakes, which was his first race this year around two turns. Stalking the pacesetters in third for the first half-mile, Pay Billy went by easily to open up by a couple of lengths in the stretch and coasted home. The 93 Equibase Speed Figure he earned, second only to the 95 figure Kentucky Outlaw earned in an allowance race last month, should be improved upon and his second crop sire Improbable has only had one previous horse run this distance to date, and that one won, so I expect another top effort good enough to win this year’s Tesio.

Surfside Moon gets the rail and finished second in his only two-turn dirt race, the Withers at Aqueduct when last seen on February 1. I might prefer him if he had run since, but that’s his only knock. He earned a 92 figure for the effort and in both that runner-up effort and his win at a mile on turf in August, Surfside Moon rallied from fifth early so should the pace be contested or faster than average, he can win, and even if it’s not that hot, he an still win with any improvement off his Withers effort.

Kentucky Outlaw is two-for-two in his career, both wins coming at Parx, the first a sprint and the second a two-turn race with a field high 95 Equibase Speed Figure. He’s a Kentucky bred with excellent breeding and his two most recent works since leaving Parx have been strong. He earned his last win leading from start to finish and based on that effort and his recent workouts we can expect jockey Gonzalez to send him to the front again from the start. There doesn’t appear to be any other “early” speed types in front of him so the only question is whether he has the talent to move from that allowance win at Parx to stakes company at Laurel versus two horse with stakes experience.

Sacred Thunder has finished second five times in 12 races, most recently when three lengths behind Pay Billy in his first two turn race, the Private Terms Stakes last month. He has won three times as well and finished third three times, so his 11 for 12 in the money record makes him a great candidate to use in second on exacta tickets and second and third on trifecta tickets. Similarly, Happily Delusional finished second by nearly six lengths to Kentucky Outlaw in that allowance race at Parx last month and could be in the money again.

Handicapper Picks

Win:
We should start with Pay Billy, who should be considered for a win bet at odds of 2 to 1 or more.
Surfside Moon can be considered for a win bet at 5 to 2 or higher odds.
Kentucky Outlaw can be considered at 3 to 1 or more.

When presented with the opportunity to wager on more than one horse to win, we can gain the best mathematical edge possible by using a “Dutching” tool to prorate our wagers. There is a free Dutching tool at Amwager where all we have to do is select the total we want to wager and then select two horses and all the work is done for us. That’s one of many great tools and perks at Amwager.

Exactas:
Box Pay Billy, Surfside Moon and Kentucky Outlaw

Also Pay Billy, Surfside Moon, Kentucky Outlaw over Pay Billy, Surfside Moon, Kentucky Outlaw, Sacred Thunder, Happily Delusional.

Trifecta: Pay Billy, Surfside Moon and Kentucky Outlaw over Pay Billy, Surfside Moon, Kentucky Outlaw, Sacred Thunder and Happily Delusional over Pay Billy, Surfside Moon, Kentucky Outlaw, Sacred Thunder and Happily Delusional.

Elkhorn Stakes - Race 9 at Keeneland - Post Time 5:16 PM Eastern

Win contenders: Missed the Cut, Grand Sonata, Balnikhov

Missed the Cut has won seven of 18 races in his career including five of 13 on grass. Last year as a five-year-old, Missed the Cut had the best year of his career, winning two graded stakes and finishing second in another, from three North American starts. His wins in the San Marcos Stakes and San Luis Rey Stakes in California earned him back to back 109 Equibase Speed Figures and a trip to Kentucky, where Missed the Cut rallied nicely for second in last year’s Elkhorn, with a 102 figure. After a poor effort when racing in England in June, Missed the Cut took some time off and returned on March 1 in the Mac Diarmida Stakes, where he trailed in 11th for the first one and one-half miles before launching a bid to pass five horses late. Although sixth, Missed the Cut was only two and one-half lengths behind the winner, earning a 101 figure. Making his second start following that long layoff and back at the mile and one-half distance of his victory in the San Luis Rey and runner-up effort in last year’s Elkhorn, Missed the Cut could improve markedly and earn his eighth career win, with Hall-of-Fame jockey John Velazquez in the saddle for the first time.

Grand Sonata has had a pretty illustrious career including wins in the Turf Cup Stakes last September (with a 110 figure) and near misses in the United Nations Stakes (with career-best 112 figure) and, most recently, in the Mac Diarmida Stakes on March 1. In the Mac Diarmida, Grand Sonata rallied valiantly in the last eighth of a mile when going from fourth to miss by just a head on the wire. Stretching out one eighth of a mile for the Elkhorn could enable him to make up that narrow margin and win.

Balnikhov ships in from California for excellent trainer Phil D’Amato after putting in a very strong workout at his home base as well as one over the Keeneland turf. He ran at Keeneland much earlier in his career, winning the Bryan Station Stakes in the fall of 2022. Since then, he’s won two more graded stakes, including the Dinner Party Stakes last May in Maryland, earning a career best 115 figure. Last November, Balnikhov ran one of the best races of his career when rallying from last of nine to miss by a half-length in the Hollywood Turf Cup, run at the distance of the Elkhorn. There’s little doubt that effort, as well as his previous success at Keeneland, is what prompted trainer D’ Amato to ship the horse to Kentucky and if he repeats either of those efforts, he could have a big say in the outcome.

As to the starting favorite, Limited Liability, I think he is vulnerable in this situation and I am taking a stand against him as a win contender, although he can finish second or third. Although he has won four races and nearly $900,000 in his career, he has never won at this mile and one-half distance though he did finish second or third in all four tries. He has won twice at Keeneland, but at much shorter distances and in allowance races. Limited Liability won the Nashville Gold Cup Stakes race last summer at the distance of two and one-sixteenth miles, earning a 111 figure, and he earned a 115 figure when third in the William L. McKnight Stakes in January when last seen. However, that win in the Nashville Gold Cup came when leading from the start, and there’s little chance he will get the lead early in this race as Dean Martini also races the same way, has a better position in the gate, and is faster in the early stages. This will force Limited Liability to race just off the pace from the start and perhaps run faster than average chasing Dean Martini, making him susceptible to being passed late by horses with a much bigger late kick. He could still hang on for second so we can include him in that spot on exacta tickets.

Handicapper Picks

Win:
We should start with Missed the Cut at odds of 5 to 2 or higher.
Grand Sonata can be considered at 3 to 1 or more, while Balnikhov can be bet to win at 4 to 1 or more.

It appears likely that at least two of the three will be higher than minimum odds near post time, and in that case using the free “Dutching” tool at Amwager is a great way to bet this race and achieve the best mathematical edge possible.

Exacta:
Box Missed the Cut, Grand Sonata and Balnikhov

Also Missed the Cut, Grand Sonata and Balnikhov over Missed the Cut, Grand Sonata, Balnikhov, Rebel Red, Limited Liability, Starting Over and Idratherbeblessed

Ellis Starr

Ellis is available @Ubercapper and is a renowned Public handicapper, blogger, speaker, fan educator of horse racing. In 2025, Ellis finished 34th in the National Handicapping Contest (NHC) earning him $14,500 in prize money!
Ellis provides analysis on key stakes races so check back often and keep an eye on his value lines and his advice on dutching your picks. Value is important when deciding who to bet and how much to bet.

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