Key Races & Bets for Saturday October 31Zagora Stakes - Race 6 at Belmont - Post Time 3:22 PM EasternOlympic Games finished second of 10 in the identical River Memories Stakes on the Belmont Turf at 12 furlongs in July. Winner Civil Union won right back while she stepped up into grade 3 company at Saratoga and ran poorly. Back in a non-graded stakes and back at Belmont, that 7/12 effort looks good enough to win here if repeated and Irad Ortiz, Jr. (up for that big runner-up effort) rides back. Cambeliza offers a lot of value for exotic wagers at the least, opening at 12/1. Beaten a neck to future stakes star Eliade at Keeneland three weeks ago at this distance, the filly’s 97 Equibase Figure from that allowance race she nearly won is on par with the 98 figure Olympic Games earned when second in the River Memories,…
Key Races & Bets for Saturday October 24 Hudson Handicap Stakes - Race 7 at Belmont - Post Time 3:26 PM EasternThe Hudson Handicap kicks off a neat little trio of stakes with some good opportunity for profit. Big Engine (5/1 morning line), Dugout (10/1) and Captain Bombastic (6/1) all open at odds higher than they should, based on their probability to win. Big Engine has won 7 of 15 dirt races including two of his last three, both sprints, the first of the two at Saratoga and the latest at Belmont last month. Lezcano was up for both and rides back, and the 106 and 103 Equibase Figures from those allowance races are as good as any of the horses which have run in similar NY bred stakes have earned. He doesn’t need the lead to win so with Tribecca getting the rail and absolutely a need-the-lead type, and with…
Key Races & Bets for Saturday October 17 AND Sunday October 18, 2020Saturday October 17Floral Park Stakes - Race 9 at Belmont - Post Time 4:47 PM EasternI’llhandalthecash can bounce back off a horrible 12th place finish in the Grade 3 Ladies Sprint at Kentucky downs in which she was never a factor. She may also not have liked Saratoga when sixth in the Caress Stakes before that. The key is the last time she ran on the inner course at Belmont, which was three races back on 7/3. She sat off the pace from the four post in that race and took over about the half-mile mark holding off all challengers to the end, then flattered when the third horse came back to win. That effort earned a 107 Equibase figure which is more than good enough to win here if repeated and opening at 10/1 is well worth…
Key Races & Bets for Saturday October 10, 2020Champagne Stakes - Race 4 at Belmont - Post Time 1:58 PM EasternThis year’s Champagne Stakes drew a short field of six, hence it’s placement early on the card. However, there’s some opportunity here because North American leading trainer Steve Asmussen not only has the prohibitive favorite Jackie’s Warrior but also saddles Midnight Bourbon, who opens at 6/1. The reason he is 6/1 is because Chad Brown’s entrant, Reinvestment Risk, opens at 8/5 on the heels of a non-threatening yet second place finish to Jackie’s Warrior in the Hopeful Stakes last month at Saratoga. I don’t think running second for the last three-eighths of a mile means much so I’m taking a stand against Reinvestment Risk. On the other hand, Midnight Bourbon improved very nicely at this one turn mile trip in the Iroquois last month when sweeping by to lead into…
Key Races & Bets for Saturday October 3, 2020Laurel Futurity - Race 8 at Pimlico - Post Time 3:22 PM EasternFor multi-race wagers like the pick 3 and 4 there are two ways to go here. The first is to just use Hidden Enemy, which allows for using “ALL” in the next race for tickets started here or with this race as part of a sequence started in an earlier race. However, if you started a pick 3 in race 6 I would try to use ALL in this leg as there were only two horses to use in race seven and because two year olds can all move forward markedly from one race to the next and there’s not much separating these to begin with. This being a stakes race for two year olds, all lightly raced, I’m not concerned with the fact three of them haven’t won yet.…
Key Races & Bets for Saturday September 26, 2020Noble Damsel Stakes - Race 8 at Belmont - Post Time 4:42 PM EasternIn this nine horse field (10 minus one entered for main track only), Sweet Bye and Bye is the one to beat and because the field is well balanced I believe she will go to post near her 7 to 2 starting odds, making her a KEY WIN BET on the day. She was six for 14 before going on the sidelines in January, then returning in August in the Tony Dutrow barn. The debut was a turf sprint and she ran huge to miss by a half-length and a head in that race, the Caress Stakes at Saratoga. Stretching out to this mile trip 25 days later, Sweet Bye and Bye gamely fought head and head the entire length of the stretch and came out on top by…
Key Races & Bets for Saturday September 19 AND Sunday September 20, 2020Saturday's RacesRace 8 at Woodbine - Post Time 5 PM EasternThis is not a stakes but it leads to the Ricoh Woodbine Mile, which is my Race of the Day play for Woodbine available HERE. So I think we can make some money on doubles and pick 3 tickets starting in this race. Mrs. Del won like a good thing last time out on 8/29. It doesn’t matter it took eight tries to win because this is a non-winners of two and all of these are one-for-something. The 93 Equibase figure tops the field and if she can repeat it, or come close to it, she wins again. Takota ran big in all four starts last year, never off the board, then finished nearly last in her July comeback. Given two months off she’s working well and if…
Key Races & Bets for Saturday September 12, 2020Kentucky Downs Ladies Turf - Race 7 at Kentucky Downs - Post Time 4:27 PM EasternEnglish Affair posted the 14/1 upset in the Kentucky Downs Preview Ladies Turf Stakes last month at Ellis Park and I think she will prove that big win was no fluke. Bejarano rode her for the first time and brilliantly and she’s come back to work big since then. She won the Grade 3 Cardinal Stakes as a four year old in 2018 and is ow back in that kind of form and the 114 Equibase Figure she earned last month is BETTER than any other horse in the field, including those who are also stakes winners. Regal Glory has to be used on exacta, double and pick 3 tickets but is tough to consider for a win bet as she opens at 9/5. She won five…
Key Races & Bets for Saturday September 5, 2020Note: My Derby analysis is after three excellent betting races at Saratoga. Additionally, You can get my full card detailed analysis and betting recommendations for all the races at Churchill Downs on Derby Day, Saturday September 5, at Equibase.com, TrackMaster.com and most online wagering sites, for a small fee.Jim Dandy Stakes - Race 9 at Saratoga - Post Time 4:21 PM EasternHappy Saver is not only two-for-two but the second of those wins came at the same nine furlong trip at Saratoga as the Jim Dandy. With the Derby and other three-year-old stakes available to horses around the country this weekend, an opportunity exists for a horse like this to jump up from allowance to stakes successfully. Not only did he win by four lengths in that race, his move in the upper stretch was six wide and the runner-up came back…
Key Races & Bets for Saturday August 29, 2020Amsterdam Stakes - Race 7 at Saratoga - Post Time 4:32 PM EasternThis race quickly boils down to two strong contenders to win and one of them is not the second lowest odds on the morning line. Yaupon opens as the 8/5 favorite and is legitimate but Premier Star has a pretty decent probability to win as well. Long Weekend, who opens at 9/5, is a bit suspect on a lot of levels, foremost as even though he finished second via a disqualification in the Gold Fever Stakes at Belmont last month, after initially finishing third, he was never going to win and considering he was the 1 to 5 favorite that’s not good. The second issue I have with Long Weekend is he has ONLY won leading from start to finish, and there are others in the race which are unlikely…