Saturday, December 27, 2025
Abundantia River Stakes – Race 9 at Gulfstream Park – Post Time 4:18 PM Eastern

Top Win Contenders: Flaming Way, Moon Spun, Love Appeals

Flaming Way won her first race at this distance and her first try on turf, earning a career-best 92 Equibase Speed Figure. That came after an eight-month layoff and a trainer change to Preciado. Two races later, Flaming Way won her best career race, running five furlongs on the turf at Gulfstream Park. She started eighth and was only seventh after the quarter pole and five paths wide. She advanced to third at the eighth pole, then powered home to win and earn a 96 figure. Because Flaming Way can improve, she is my top contender.

Moon Spun has never finished worse than third in her seven races and has two wins at turf sprints. She led from start to finish, but she was well off the pace of her previous wins, so I believe Castellano will let others go and will be in a good position. Trainer Lynch is firing on all cylinders in the meeting with seven wins in 18 races, and Moon Spun is another filly improving in her second race after a layoff.

Love Appeals won the Incredible Revenge Stakes in August, a race similar to this one, after a three-month layoff, earning a 100 figure. She finished second in the Floral Park Stakes, earning a 97 figure. She entered Abundantia after another short layoff, and she appears able to run another top effort. Love Appeals has won six turf sprints in her career, along with two stakes wins, and is a contender in the field, having earned $435K.

I would not include Haulin Ice as a contender because even though she has won 10 out of 18 races, this is her first try on turf and at this distance. I think she will be one of the favorites because she dropped in class from the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint, where she finished sixth.

Handicapper Picks:

Win bets: I would consider Flamingo Way a good bet at 5 to 2 odds or higher.
Moon Spun and Love Appeals are considered at fair odds of 5 to 2 or higher, but both odds will be lower than Flamingo Way.

Exactas:
Boxes: Flaming Way and Moon Spun
Flaming Way and Love Appeals
Flaming Way and Haulin Ice

Doubles:
Race 9: Flaming Way, Moon Spun, Love Appeals, Haulin Ice
Race 10: Knightsbridge, Super Chow

Race 9: Flaming Way, Moon Spun, Love Appeals, Haulin Ice
Race 10: Knightsbridge

Saturday, December 27, 2025
Mr. Prospector Stakes – Race 10 at Gulfstream Park – Post Time 4:48 PM Eastern

Top Win Contender: Knightsbridge
Other win contender: Super Chow

Knightsbridge won on November 22 at this distance, earning a 110 Equibase Speed Figure – the highest of any horse in the field – after a nine month layoff. Knightsbridge earned his first career win at seven furlongs, then won a second race. This is his second layoff, so he should improve again. He completed a sharp four-furlong workout in preparation for this race. Knightsbridge is a half-brother of Speaker’s Corner (6 for 13, $739K) and is also trained by Hall of Fame trainer Mott. Knightsbridge is the horse to beat and the best for a winning bet.

Super Chow has two wins this year, with his best figure of 101 in both races. This is not as fast as Knightsbridge’s 110, last year’s Mr. Prospector winner White Abarrio’s 102, or his 110 in the 2025 Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes. But Super Chow has won 11 races and is just $20,000 shy of reaching $1 million in earnings. He ran okay and finished second in August after a two month layoff, but finished fifth in his most recent race in September. Still, he was able to run well after three months off, finishing second and then winning at seven furlongs in the Toboggan Stakes early in 2024. He also won four of eight races at Gulfstream, including the Gulfstream Spring Stakes last February.

White Abarrio, likely the prohibitive favorite, finished second in the 2024 Mr. Prospector with a 102 figure. His two wins in January 2025 included the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Invitation Stakes (110 figures) and the Grade 3 Ghostzapper Stakes in March (105 figures). Since winning the Ghostzapper, he has run races earning ratings of 99, 101, and 103, which probably won’t be enough to make him the winner today. White Abarrio races after a four-month layoff, and although his last three races were Grade 1 stakes, he performed poorly in all of them, finishing fourth or fifth. He was never a serious contender in any of those races. I may take a stand against him.

Handicapper Picks:

Win bet: Knightsbridge at odds of 3 to 2 or higher.
I would make a winning bet on Super Chow at odds of 5 to 1 or higher.

Sunday, December 28, 2025
Malibu Stakes – Race 10 at Santa Anita – Post Time 6:49 PM Eastern

Top Win KEY Contender: Modus Bestia

Santa Anita opens the 2025-2026 meeting with the Grade 1 La Brea Stakes (fillies) and the Grade 1 Malibu Stakes (males) for three-year-olds. In the previous five years, Baffert has won five of the 10 previous races and finished second or third with five other horses. He entered 25 horses in those races, and the rest finished fourth or lower. In this year’s Malibu, Baffert has entered five, but only one can win, and none are standouts.

Since Baffert’s odds aren’t particularly good for winning bets, I’ve decided to key Modus Bestia to win and to place exactas with all five of Baffert’s entries. Modus Bestia won his last two races easily, including the fastest last race in the field, earning a 109 Equibase Speed Figure, up from 107. Only one of the other nine horses earned a 107 figure in their last race, Midland Money (who finished second). Modus Bestia put in an excellent five-furlong workout one week out, the sixth of 75, showing he is fit. This colt is starting at 15 to 1 and is the horse I plan to bet.

Handicapper Picks:

Win bet: Modus Bestia at odds of 7 to 2 or higher.

Exacta Bet:
Modus Bestia over Madaket Road, Midland Money, Cornucopian, Barnes, and Goal Oriented
Madaket Road, Midland Money, Cornucopian, Barnes, and Goal Oriented over Modus Bestia