Key Races & Bets for Saturday April 15th, 2023
Heavenly Cause Stakes – Race 7 at Laurel – Post Time 3:31 PM Eastern
Top contenders:
Jump Into the Fire ships from Kentucky with a trio of superb half-mile drills for a sharp trainer in Colebrook, who has lot of opportunities to run locally so he must figure the mare is ready to compete at this level, and I agree. She’s won five of her last seven and finished second in the other two and should run big, perhaps a bit overlooked in the wagering because she’s been running in starter allowance races since last February (2022).
Hybrid Eclipse won the identical Caesars Wish Stakes in July handily by almost four lengths and enters this race in top form cutting back from two turns to this one turn mile trip off a win in the Nellie Morse Stakes in February. She has a very strong record at Laurel consisting of five wins in seven starts and should be right there at the finish.
Beth’s Dream has a perfect three for three record at this one turn mile trip, the first of the trio coming at Gulfstream in wire-to-wire fashion, with the most recent also at Gulfstream but in that race she showed the ability to relax about two lengths off the early pace for a half-mile so with a good outside post and other early speed in the field if she can’t make the lead, which is likely as Hashtag Lucky is the one with the most early speed, it doesn’t compromise her chances to run big again.
Handicapper Picks
Win: I’m looking for the best overlay from minimum odds here so whichever of the trio consisting of Jump Into the Fire, Hybrid Eclipse or Beth’s Dream are the highest odds, as long as 2 to 1 or more, near post time, is the bet. In the event TWO of the THREE are 4 to 1 or more I’d bet both.
Exacta:
Box: Jump Into the Fire, Hybrid Eclipse, Beth’s Dream
Doubles:
Race 7: Jump Into the Fire, Hybrid Eclipse, Beth’s Dream
Race 8: Eastern Bay, Witty, Bankit
Race 7: Jump Into the Fire
Race 8: Eastern Bay, Witty, Bankit
Race 7: Jump Into the Fire, Hybrid Eclipse, Beth’s Dream
Race 8: Bankit
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Frank Y. Whitely Stakes – Race 8 at Laurel – Post Time 4:02 PM Eastern
Top Contenders:
Bankit ships in from New York for Asmussen and he’s one tough race horse, with 20 first or second place finishes in his 38 race career and over $1.25 million banked. He has more runner-up finishes (12) than wins but shows up every time and the ONE previous time he shipped to Laurel, he won, back in February 21 in the John B. Campbell Stakes. That was the last time Sheldon Russell rode and he gets back on today and the effort the seven year old horse put forth when last seen on 2/20 in the Haynesfield Stakes at seven furlongs would go a long way to adding to his career record and bankroll here.
Witty has done little wrong in one turn races like this one in his career, with five wins and two runner-up efforts from eight races If you ignore his graded stakes tries his record is nearly perfect and he’s two-for-two at seven furlongs. He comes into the race off a career-best win with a 107 Equibase figure which is tied for the best last race figure in the field (with Factor It In) but he was off for nearly six months before that so he could run even better second off the layoff.
Eastern Bay should not be disadvantaged by the rail considering he comes from off the pace so Humphrey can drop him back mid-pack early then he can swing around horses late which is similar to what he did when winning the tougher Grade 3 General George Stakes in February at the distance over the track with the same jockey aboard. Winner of 19 races in 55 tries and over $1 million in earnings this tough old competitor appears ready for another “A” race.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Similar to the last race, I’m looking for the best overlay from minimum odds here so whichever of the trio consisting of Bankit, Witty or Eastern Bay are the highest odds, as long as 2 to 1 or more, near post time, is the bet. In the event TWO of the THREE are 4 to 1 or more I’d bet both
Exactas: Box Bankit, Witty, Eastern Bay
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Federico Tesio Stakes – Race 10 at Laurel – Post Time 5:05 PM Eastern
Top contenders:
Summer Cause ships up from Gulfstream Park for Clement and appears to be the right horse at the right time because after running okay in his first three starts, all in-the-money finishes, when stretched out to this nine furlong trip he ran the best race of his career, winning with a nice stretch rally even though five wide on the far turn. He also got new blinkers for the race and so we can expect the same or better in this situation.
Ninetyprcentmaddie was highly regarded enough off his runner-up effort in the Parx Juvenile in January to be sent to New York for the Withers but disappointed badly when eased. I’m not sure it was the nine furlongs as he as the breeding to run this far which he sort of proved last month at a mile and 70 yards when winning by nearly 10 lengths. Paco Lopez was up then, as now, and for his Parx Juvenile effort and so may be the key to a repeat of the colt’s most recent race with a field high 93 Equibase Figure, compared favorably to Summer Cause’s 91 figure.
Two others warrant consideration for exacta and trifecta wagers at the very least. Coffeewithchris is the first of the two as he was wide throughout after drawing the eight post on March 18 in the Private Terms Stakes but still finished second with an 89 figure, today getting the rail. The other is Prince of Jericho, who was second to Coffeewithchris when that one won the one-turn mile Miracle Wood Stakes in February. He passed the Private Terms and this will be his first two-turn race.
Handicapper Picks
Win: I am looking to bet either or both Summer Cause and Ninetyprcentmaddie at 2 to 1 or more.
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Exactas:
Summer Cause, Ninetyprcentmaddie over Coffeewithchris, Ninetyprcentmaddie, Summer Cause, Prince of Jericho
Coffeewithchris, Ninetyprcentmaddie, Summer Cause, Prince of Jericho over Summer Cause, Ninetyprcentmaddie
Trifectas:
Summer Cause, Ninetyprcentmaddie over Coffeewithchris, Ninetyprcentmaddie, Summer Cause, Prince of Jericho over Coffeewithchris, Ninetyprcentmaddie, Summer Cause, Prince of Jericho
