Key Races & Bets for Saturday April 9th, 2022
Shakertown Stakes – Race 8 at Keeneland – Post Time 4:30 PM Eastern
Barraza is a horse who didn’t try sprinting on grass until last October and who has won ALL FOUR turf sprints since then, in three of them closing amazingly fast in visually impressive fashion to win going away. His last two wins, both in stakes, earned 119 and 111 Equibase figures, which compare favorably to likely favorite Golden Pal, whose last two earned 110 and 126 figures, the first of the two earned in the fall equivalent of this race, the Woodford Stakes. Being an invader from California, Barraza may be a bit less heavily bet than Golden Pal so that’s why I’m giving him slight preference but if you ran this race 100 times, I think the two of them might win 66 (two-thirds) of the 100 as they are that much better than the rest of the field.
Golden Pal has five wins and two runner-up efforts in eight career starts, seven on turf including both times he raced at Keeneland. He will bolt out of the gate and be in front by a length before the rest of the field has blinked and then he gets very brave and will be tough to catch as usual.
The Lir Jet ran 10 times in Europe before importing to the U.S. last summer and ran very well to win the Franklin Simpson Stakes, a turf sprint like this one, powerfully in a field of 11. The 109 figure was rock solid and as a more mature four year old it is entirely possibly he could run as fast as Golden Pal or Barraza in this situation so he must round out the top trio of win contenders.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets:
Barraza to win at odds of 2 to 1 or higher.
The Lir Jet to win at odds of 4 to 1 or higher.
Considering Barraza opens at odds of 6 to 1 and The Lir Jet opens at 12 to 1 the chances are high both will be above minimum odds and that means we should take advantage of those odds. The best way to do that and to maximize our profit is to “Dutch” the bet, which means to prorate it based on the odds. Amwager.com has a free and easy to use Dutching Tool available where you can set the amount you want to bet, or the amount you want to win, and the math is done for you. This is just one of many tools, and perks, available to the bettor at Amwager.com
Exacta:
Box Barraza, Golden Pal, The Lir Jet
Doubles:
Race 8: Barraza, Golden Pal, The Lir Jet
Race 9: Smile Happy, Zandon
Pick 3s:
Race 8: Barraza, Golden Pal, The Lir Jet
Race 9: Smile Happy, Zandon
Race 10: Temper Time
Pick 4s:
Race 8: Barraza, Golden Pal, The Lir Jet
Race 9: Smile Happy, Zandon
Race 10: Temper Time
Race 11: Striker, Momos, Infinite
Note: You can use ALL in race 11, especially if the race comes off the turf and is run on the main track.
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Toyota Blue Grass Stakes – Race 9 at Keeneland – Post Time 5:10 PM Eastern
Zandon won his debut last October at six furlongs, after banging the gate at the start to get away poorly. Showing maturity like a horse that was not making his debut, Zandon rallied and drew off. Next he was stepped way up in class to run in the Remsen Stakes, run at the same mile and one-eighth distance of the Blue Grass Stakes. In that race while running farther than most of the others as he was three paths wide on both turns, Zandon battled head-and-head the length of the stretch before settling for second by a nose. In the Remsen, Zandon tied the 93 Equibase Speed Figure he had earned in his debut win. Wisely given time off to mature, Zandon returned without a sprint prep first and ran in the Risen Star Stakes, also at this nine furlong rip. This time Zandon hopped in the air at the start and lost position, finding himself last of 10. Nevertheless he started to pass horses after a half-mile, eventually finishing third and a half-length behind runner-up Smile Happy. Once again Zandon earned a 93 figure. Considering both he and Smile Happy are going to improve in their second starts off long layoffs, but factoring in the trouble Zandon experienced in the Risen Star, I believe he’s going to improve a bit more and win this year’s Toyota Blue Grass Stakes.
Smile Happy has had a very similar career to Zandon, having run three times. However, whereas Zandon won his debut in a six furlong sprint, Smile Happy won his debut last October at the distance of one mile and one-sixteenth. He earned a 95 Equibase Speed figure with that victory, which earned him a start in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes the next month. Relaxing in fifth of 11 in the early stages, Smile Happy commenced a rally four paths wide on the turn and drew off to a fairly easy three length win, improving to a 100 figure. Like Zandon, Smile Happy made his three year old debut and first start after nearly three months off in the Risen Star Stakes, where winner Epicenter had already run in 2022. Rallying from eighth to second in the race and earning the same 93 figure as Zandon, Smile Happy should show a good deal of improvement in his second start as a three year old. Certainly, if he improves as much as he did in his second career start when victorious in the Jockey Club Stakes, he can win and at the least he and Zandon will give put on a show in this race.
Honorable mention goes to four horses, all with significantly less probability to win but with a chance to finish third, if not second, and potentially at high odds. I’ll start with Fenwick, who ran the best race of his career last month when easily winning with a 91 figure after the addition of blinkers. He’s a son of Curlin, probably the best sire of top three year olds the last few years among this field’s sires. Ethereal Road finishes fast and could be passing a number of horses in the stretch in this race. He did just that in the Rebel Stakes at the end of February when rallying from fifth to lead late in the race, before settling for second with a 90 figure. The horse he beat for second, Barber Road, returned to finish second in the Arkansas Derby last week, somewhat flattering Ethereal Road. Blackadder is the only horse in the field to have won at this nine furlong distance, having done so in the El Camino Real Derby in February on the all-weather surface at Golden Gate Fields in California. His Equibase Speed Figures have improved from 67 three races back, to 83 two back, to 85 in the El Camino Real¸ and although the best of those is short of how fast I expect Zandon and Smile Happy to run, it’s not unthinkable Blackadder could improve more than expected and run well at high odds. Grantham finished a fine second in the Tampa Bay Derby with a 100 figure when last seen. He had the rail for that race and gets the potentially disadvantageous extreme outside post for the Blue Grass which will mean he has to go wide on the first turn or drop back farther in the early stages than he’s been in any of his four races to date. Still, he does appear to have the ability to compete in this field based on his last effort.
Handicapper Picks
With Smile Happy opening at 9 to 5 odds and the minimum odds I’d consider a win bet being 2 to 1, it looks like only Zandon may be playable to win here, at odds of 2 to 1 or more.
Exacta:
Box Zandon and Smile Happy
Zandon and Smile Happy over Zandon, Smile Happy, Fenwick, Ethereal Road, Blackadder and Grantham
Trifecta:
Zandon and Smile Happy over Zandon and Smile Happy over Fenwick, Ethereal Road, Blackadder and Grantham
Zandon and Smile Happy over Zandon, Smile Happy, Fenwick, Ethereal Road, Blackadder and Grantham over Zandon, Smile Happy, Fenwick, Ethereal Road, Blackadder and Grantham
Doubles:
Race 9: Smile Happy, Zandon
Race 10: Temper Time
Pick 3s:
Race 9: Smile Happy, Zandon
Race 10: Temper Time
Race 11: Striker, Momos, Infinite
Note: You can use ALL in race 11 as well, particularly if the race is moved off turn to be run on dirt.
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Race 10 at Keeneland – Post Time 5:45 PM Eastern
Temper Time looks very logical here in spite of the race drawing a field of 12 with one also-eligible. She enters the race having won two of her last four starts and missing by less than a length when fourth in the other. NONE of the others has a win this year. Temper Time may also have a strategic edge in that her win in November was earned leading from start to finish and her win last month when stalking from fourth in the early position. Therefore jockey Tyler Gaffalione will be able to put her on the lead from an inside post if none of the other horses want the front, or he can tuck her behind whoever leads early. At this one and one-sixteenth mile trip at Keeneland which ends at the first or two finish lines and therefore a sixteenth of a mile closer to the far turn than most other races, that gives horses with tactical speed like Temper Time an edge.
Handicapper Picks
Bets:
Win Bets:
Temper Time at odds of 3 to 1 or more.
Doubles:
Race 10: Temper Time
Race 11: Striker, Momos, Infinite
Note: You can use ALL in race 11 as well, particularly if the race is moved off turn to be run on dirt.
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Race 11 at Keeneland – Post Time 6:20 PM Eastern
Handicapping weather and trying to estimate whether a turf scheduled race will be run on the turf, or moved to the main track, is probably as difficult as handicapping which horses should run well. It may very well be this race is moved off the turf onto the main track because of the inclement weather or condition of the course, in which case we can expect a number of scratches as trainers will wait for a day when their horses can run on the turf.
If that is not the case, Striker gets slight preference. A perfect two-for-two last year as a three year old, the colt was impressive in both starts and showed a big kick which will play very similarly in this turf race. The 100 figure earned in the second of the two wins is TOPS in the field and we can expect him to run even better now as a four year old.
Momos has run well on dirt, and on turf, and returns off a three month layoff and is facing much easier than when last seen in a grade 2 stakes race. He finished second at this allowance level prior to that and missed by a head in a non-graded stakes on the turf last September after changing to his current trainer so those efforts repeated here give him a strong chance of success.
Infinite returns from a bit over a year away from the races but when he runs he runs big, with three wins in seven career races on turf. One of those came in July 2020 off a layoff and trainer Ward is well known for having his horses ready to win off long layoffs without need of a prep race, evidenced by a nearly 30% win rate over the past five years with this type of horse.
Handicapper Picks
Win Bets:
Striker OR Momos (whichever is higher odds) at 3 to 1 or more.
Infinite at 5 to 1 or more.
Noting Infinite opens at 15 to 1, we have another opportunity to maximize our profit by prorating win bets on more than one horse using the free and easy to use Dutching Tool at amwager.com
Exactas:
Striker, Momos and Infinite over Striker, Momos, Infinite, Souper Dormy, Artemus Citylimits and City Drifter.
“IF” the race is run on dirt, the win contenders are Momos, Savvy & Soaring Bird, and you should consider Artemus Citylimits and Coltonator for exacta bets. Both Soaring Bird and Coltonator are entered to run ONLY if the race is run on the dirt main track.
