Key Races & Bets for Saturday August 10th, 2024
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Saratoga Special - Race 8 at Saratoga - Post Time 4:29 PM Eastern
Win Contenders: Smoken Wicked, Showcase, Touchy
Although not having run the fastest in the field, Smoken Wicked may still be the one to beat based on the fact that he closed from second to win his debut by seven and one-half lengths, before rallying from 10th to second in his second career start. That effort came in the Bashford Manor Stakes at Churchill Downs at the end of June, where Smoken Wicked broke very well to be first in initial stages, but then dropped back to seventh. Appearing to lose focus and drifting further back to 10th with a quarter mile to run, all of a sudden Smoken Wicked picked up the pace and in the span of one-eighth of a mile and in spite of running seven paths wide the colt passed seven horses to go from 10th to second. With a jockey change to Tyler Gaffalione and breaking from the ground saving rail instead of the extreme outside, Smoken Wicked gets a made to order early pace scenario for his late kick, as six of the other horses all won when leading from the start, while another (Touchy) led from the start before settling for second. Although he earned a 73 Equibase Speed Figure, well short of the field high 89 figure Keep It Easy earned in his most recent race, Smoken Wicked may be able to take a huge step forward to win the Saratoga Special with his late kick particularly as Keep It Easy earned his high figure leading from start to finish and may not be able to get an easy lead in this field as he did last time out.
Showcase is the second fastest horse on paper with an 87 speed figure earned in his debut last month. He started third in the race then took up a stalking position in second behind the early leader. On the far turn Showcase accelerated and drew off by seven and one-half lengths. He was driven out at the end rather than winning in hand, likely with this race which is one furlong longer than his debut in mind. With Irad Ortiz, Jr. riding back for the strong Pletcher barn, it may be that Showcase only needs to repeat that effort, not improve upon it, to win this year’s Saratoga Special.
Although Touchy was in front of the field after a quarter mile had been run in his only previous race, the Tremont Stakes, he did not break on top. Rather, he was fairly relaxed in the opening strides while third, then took over on his own to lead by a length. After drifting out to the middle of the track, jockey Joel Rosario (who rides again) asked Touchy to move towards the rail to see a rival while at the same time the eventual winner put in a rousing rally to win. Blinkers come off for this race, which should allow Touchy to see his rivals better and dig in, so improving off a very fine 80 figure first time out seems very likely.
Handicapper Picks
Win: I would consider all three (Smoken Wicked, Showcase, Touchy) at odds of 3 to 1 or more. I expect Touchy to go to post at or below his 5 to 2 starting odds, and I suspect the 6 to 1 starting odds on Showcase, who is trained by Todd Pletcher, will get corrected significantly downward. Nevertheless, I plan to bet the two among the three at the highest odds of 3 to 1 or higher.
Exacta: Box Smoken Wicked, Showcase, Touchy
Bison City Stakes - Race 8 at Woodbine - Post Time 4:52 PM Eastern
Contenders: Ontario, Dancing Duchess, Kin’s Concerto
This is a race for three year old fillies foaled in Canada so pretty much identical to the Woodbine Oaks run on July 20. Kin’s Concerto won that race by a neck, with five of the other eight in this field finishing behind her and none were close. Two horses which did not run in the Oaks are Ontario and Dancing Duchess and they appear to have about the same high probability to win at Kin’s Concerto. Ontario makes only her second career start, first around two turns, and first versus winners. That being said, the filly is super talented as evidenced by a sweeping move on the far turn from sixth to lead into the stretch in her debut after breaking slowly. She’s a daughter of Ghostzapper out of a Street Cry mare so there is no doubt she will run as well or better at this longer trip and trainer Josie Carroll won with another horse bred and owned by LNJ Foxwoods, the same as Ontario, on the same move (second time out and sprint to route), so if she thinks this filly is ready to do that in stakes competition I will not argue. Ontario put in a strong workout coming into the race and picks up one of the best jockeys in the WORLD in Frankie Dettori, so that is another plus.
Dancing Duchess won the Alywow Stakes for three year olds, a turf sprint, one before last on June 22 then ran badly when shipped to New York, a race to ignore as Civaci did not ride as he did so well in the Alywow. The filly hasn’t run a two-turn race on the main track BUT her half-brother Safe Conduct, by the same dam, won the 2021 King’s Plate so the pedigree suggests Dancing Duchess can win repeating her Alywow effort here.
Kin’s Concerto wasn’t one of the favorites in the Oaks but was decently regarded at 9 to 2 and put in a big stretch kick to win by a neck under Vives, who rides back. The 95 Equibase Speed Figure earned was strong, but no better than the 96 figure Dancing Duchess earned in the Alywow, so Kin’s Concerto can win but is not a standout.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Knowing Kin’s Concerto is going to go to post at odds of 2 to 1 or less, the horses to consider for win bets are Ontario and Dancing Duchess, at odds of 5 to 2 or more.
Exacta: Box Dancing Duchess, Ontario, Kin’s Concerto
ALSO Dancing Duchess, Ontario, Kin’s Concerto over Dancing Duchess, Ontario, Kin’s Concerto, Stormcast, Hurricane Clair
Yellow Ribbon Handicap - Race 8 at Del Mar - Post Time 8:30 PM Eastern
Win Contenders: Uncorked, Anisette
In the Grade 1 Gamely Stakes run at the end of May, Anisette went to post at odds of 5 to 2 while Uncorked was almost as well regarded at 7 to 2. In the race Anisette was in the three path off a trio of leaders early, moved to second in the stretch, then won by a half-length. Meanwhile, Uncorked was HOPELESSLY blocked the length of the stretch with nowhere to run and even when clear, it was too late to have an impact so the jockey didn’t ask much of her after that. One month earlier, Uncorked won the Royal Heroine Stakes while five months earlier Anisette won the American Oaks (restricted to three year olds). Putting aside the Gamely, both Uncorked and Anisette have earned 100 to 103 Equibase Speed Figures, and both have the same late kick, so both win can win but undoubtedly Uncorked will offer the better value for a win bet.
Fuente Ovejuna is a good horse to use in second on some exacta tickets as she just won a stakes in Indiana on the grass in game fashion with a big late kick and 101 speed figure. Trainer Brendan Walsh has had starters run well on this circuit when shipping in, including missing by a narrow margin in the 2022 Gamely and in the 2022 Fred E. Kilroe mile and leading jockey Juan Hernandez rides.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Since fair odds are about 2 to 1 on both Uncorked and Anisette but the latter is going to be more heavily bet, Uncorked is the better bet to win.
Exactas: Box Anisette and Uncorked
Also, Anisette and Uncorked over Fuente Ovejuna
Bonus Race – Saratoga Derby Invitational – Saturday August 10 – Race 6 3:20 PM Eastern, OR (if postponed) Sunday August 11 – Race 11 - Post Time 6:49 PM Eastern
Win Contenders: Fulmineo, Trikari, Carson’s Run
Fulmineo added blinkers two races back and both races have been “A” efforts for stakes wins on soft turf. With the rains having drenched Saratoga on Thursday and Friday, it is doubtful even if the race is run on Sunday the grass course will be firm and this colt is going to love the ground. The 105 speed figure he earned in the first of the two wins is BETTER than any other horse in the field, including favorites Legend of Time and Trikari as well.
Trikari has won three stakes from four tries and missed by a neck in a three horse photo in the other. His win in the Belmont Derby last month at this trip was superb and he can win again.
Carson’s Run should NOT open at 8 to 1 here, the same as Fulmineo should not open at 10 to 1. Carson’s Run returned from nearly six months off at the end of April and needed the race, then on June 23 in his second start of the year he exploded five wide moving from seventh to third into the stretch and drew off, earning a 96 figure he’s very likely to improve upon third off the layoff. He won the Grade 1 Summer Stakes as a two year old AND he missed by a half-length as the 5 to 2 favorite on the turf at Saratoga in the With Anticipation Stakes 50 weeks ago so he fits on all counts.
Handicapper Picks
Win: I will bet two of the three (Fulmineo, Trikari and Carson’s Run) at the highest odds of 3 to 1 or more.
