Key Races & Bets for Saturday August 17th, 2024
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Alabama Stakes - Race 10 at Saratoga - Post Time 5:43 PM Eastern
Win Contenders: Neon Icon, Candied, Just Basking
Neon Icon won the first two races of her career powerfully under Saez, including a five length “ridden out” win at 10 furlongs in May. She shortened up to a mile and one-sixteenth for the Indiana Oaks, where Chatalas got loose on an easy lead early and had enough late to hold off a charge by a head, while Neon Icon ran evenly when fifth most of the race. Saez was NOT aboard for that last race and gets back on and in this situation he could have Neon Icon sitting second behind Chatalas in the early stages. Considering Chatalas hasn’t run farther than a mile and one-sixteenth and Neon Icon has won at this 10 furlong trip, that gives her a slight edge. Considering she opens at 15 to 1 she’s well worth the risk here.
Candied opens at 7 to 5 having just run second to Thorpedo Anna in the CCA Oaks at nine furlongs over the track, which is like winning considering Thorpedo Anna may be the best three year old (male or female) in the country right now on dirt. She won by four before that and continues to fire so must be respected for any bets (perhaps except win bets) we make in this race.
Just Basking is the only other filly besides Neon Icon to have run 10 furlongs to date, and like that one she won. That win came in April and it was powerful as she rallied from last of 10 to win by almost eight lengths. She ran poorly off the win but rebounded to win the Iowa Oaks and is moving in the right direction again. As a daughter of Arrogate, the same as Neon Icon, Just Basking has a big shot to win her second stakes in a row or at least be part of the exacta.
Handicapper Picks
Win: We should consider win bets on Neon Icon and on Candied at 2 to 1 or more. Considering Candied opens at 7 to 5 odds it appears the main win bet will be on Neon Icon.
Just Basking can be considered for a win bet at odds of 3 to 1 or more.
Exacta: Since it’s unlikely we are making a win bet on Candied due to low odds, we can key her in the exacta with the other two as follows: Box Candied, Neon Icon and Box Candied, Just Basking.
We should also box Neon Icon and Just Basking as the exacta between these two will pay handsomely if it wins.
King’s Plate - Race 11 at Woodbine - Post Time 6:10 PM Eastern
Contenders: Caitlinhergrtness, Essex Serpent, My Boy Prince
I wasn’t going to use this race on the blog but when handicapping for the Equibase Inside Track podcast I decided it was too good to pass up considering Caitlinhergrtness opens at 15 to 1. The ONLY filly in the field in a race won by fillies in FIVE of the last 15 years, Caitlinhergrtness follows in the footsteps of the other five fillies which won the race in that time period – Moira (2022), Wonder Gadot (2018), Holy Helena (2017), Lexie Lou (2014) and Inglorious (2011), ALL WHO won or placed in the Woodbine Oaks prior to winning this race.
In this year’s Woodbine Oaks, Caitlinhergrtness was three wide for most of the race, having broken from the 10 post, moved to lead in the stretch, opened up by a length and one-half, then was run down near the wire by a neck while easily clear of the next horse. She was put into a drive on the turn while the winner bided her time then came out, but in this race Caitlinhergrtness gets the four post and can sit behind the likely early pacesetters Essex Serpent, Friendly Ghost, My Boy Prince and the stretching out Roar of the Crowd. This allows Hernandez to ride her like he did one before the Oaks when he waited to make the move after entering the stretch, drawing off to a two and three-quarter length win. Since the Oaks the filly put in two FANTASTIC workouts and trainer Attard won this race in 2022 with Moira off a win in the Oaks so this is a similar pattern.
Essex Serpent led from the half-mile to the finish to win the Marine Stakes on 6/29, only his third career start and first around tow turns. Husbands rides back and was aboard Paramount Prince to win this race last year in wire to wire fashion so similar tactics are likely to be applied. However, Roar of the Crowd stretches out from a sprint and should have the early lead. Essex Serpent did win from second in his debut and was second after a quarter mile in the Marine so should get first run on the tiring leader, giving him a chance to win. It must be noted however that the Marine isn’t as significant a prep for this race than the Oaks or Plate Trial, and opening at 2 to 1 Essex Serpent doesn’t offer a lot of value for win bets.
My Boy Prince has a decent shot to give Casse a win in this race two years in a row after Paramount Prince won last year under Husbands. Civaci has been up for seven of his 10 races and all six wins. In the Plate Trial, My Boy Prince relaxed in third early then waited until the eighth pole to move up and draw off, but it was a seven horse field and I’m not sure what he beat. Since then he put in a strong half-mile workout and certainly he would be no surprise if winning, but like Essex Serpent his odds (7 to 5 to start) make it very tough to consider him for a win bet.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Caitlinhergrtness at odds of 4 to 1 or more.
Place/Exacta: Considering her 15 to 1 starting odds, we can make a place bet at 8 to 1 or more of play an exacta of ALL over Caitlinhergrtness
Exacta: Box Caitlinhergrtness, Essex Serpent and Box Caitlinhergrtness, My Boy Prince
Trifecta: Caitlinhergrtness, Essex Serpent, My Boy Prince over ALL over Caitlinhergrtness, Essex Serpent, My Boy Prince
Del Mar Oaks - Race 8 at Del Mar - Post Time 8:30 PM Eastern
Win Contenders: Buchu, Medoro, Whiskey Decision
Buchu ships in from New York and comes out of the toughest race among this field. Although sixth of nine on July 6 in the Belmont Oaks Invitational, the effort was the best in this group, earning her a 104 Equibase Speed Figure when beaten four lengths by Cinderella’s Dream, who returned to win the Saratoga Oaks earlier this month. That wasn’t the first time Buchu has broken the 100 speed figure threshold, as she earned a 104 figure when sixth (beaten two lengths) in the Edgewood Stakes in May, and a 106 figure winning the Appalachian Stakes in April. Among the rest of the field, only Circle of Trust (101 in June) and Sea Dancer (100 in March) have earned figures better than 100. Additionally, Belmont Oaks fourth place finisher Pin Up Betty nearly won the Pucker Up Stakes in her next start and the third place finisher from that race, She Feels Pretty, is running in the Lake Placid Stakes at Saratoga this weekend. Jockey Martin Garcia, once a staple on the southern California circuit and now plying his trade mostly in Kentucky, has been aboard for all three wins aboard Buchu and will ride again. Assuming the filly can repeat her effort in the Belmont Oaks in this field, she may be the one to beat.
Medoro won the first four races of her career, including three stakes, culminating with a victory in the Providencia Stakes in April. After three months off she returned in the San Clemente Stakes four weeks ago and finished third but might have run better without traffic trouble. While winner Iscreamuscream was getting a dream trip on the rail, Medoro was boxed in on the far turn and when angled out for room she accelerated nicely but was too late to pass the top two finishers. Jockey Antonio Fresu has been aboard for all five races including four wins and chooses to ride Medoro over Circle of Trust, who he rode to victory in the Honeymoon Stakes in her most recent race. Although her best figure is 94, earned in the San Clemente, she might run a new best in the Del Mar Oaks making her second start off the layoff if she can get a clean trip.
Whiskey Decision is another shipper from the east like Buchu, having last run in Delaware five weeks ago when victorious in the Christiana Stakes with a career-best 95 figure. She picks up top jockey Umberto Rispoli and shoots for her fourth win in a row, with each of the last three decisive as she was in front with an eighth of a mile to go and extended her margin down the stretch.
As to the rest, I’ll start with Circle of Trust. Although she earned a 101 figure winning the Honeymoon Stakes at this distance in June, she has been away the longest of the group and loses the jockey (Fresu) who guided her to victory, to Medoro. Although Gutierrez is a good rider, he is unfamiliar with her, as well as the time off versus others of equal or better caliber is a concern. Iscreamuscream won the San Clemente nicely but as stated earlier she got a dream trip on the rail and although she draws inside today this is a tougher group. The Del Mar Oaks will be her first try past a mile and considering the 96 figure earned in the San Clemente is a bit low compared to what is expected of others, I think she may have her work cut out for her. Zona Verde finished behind Iscreamuscream in the San Clemente with a 95 figure and her last win came in December so although she may hit the board she appears a cut below the top contenders. Sakura Blossom could only manage fourth in the San Clemente with a 91 figure and although second with a 99 figure before that in the Honeymoon is another who appears capable of a minor award at best. Sea Dancer was non-competitive in the Honeymoon when sixth with a 91 figure and ran about the same with an 89 figure when checking in eighth in the San Clemente.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Buchu at 5 to 2 or more, Medoro and Whiskey Decision at 7 to 2 or more.
This is a good race to make win bets by prorating our wagers for the best edge. We do this by “Dutching” the bet. There are tools on the internet for determining how to allocate our bets BUT there is a free tool at Amwager which does this for you and all you have to do is enter the total amount of money you want to bet across two, or three, horses to win and all the math is done for you.
Exactas: Box Buchu, Medoro, Whiskey Decision
