Key Races & Bets for Saturday August 24th, 2024
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Ballerina Handicap - Race 10 at Saratoga - Post Time 4:20 PM Eastern
Win Contenders: Scylla, Vahva, Positano Sunset
Scylla cuts back from two-turns to this seven furlong sprint and won by seven lengths the last time she raced in a one-turn race. She won the G2 Fleur Di Lis two later then was a strong second in the G1 Clement Hirsch in her most recent race. Mott does exceptionally well with shortening a horse up for a graded stakes, with seven wins from 10 races the past three years. Three of those were with Cody’s Wish but the other four are with different horses, and Scylla, who has finished first or second in seven of eight career starts, should add to those numbers.
Vahva opens as the prohibitive favorite coming off two graded stakes wins at this distance. She has no knocks and would be no surprise if winning for the 7th time in her 14th start, but she’s not the complete standout her even money starting odds make her appear to be.
Positano Sunset opens at 15 to 1 odds WAY out of line with probability as she was a decent second to Vahva when last seen in June in the Chiago Stakes at this distance. That was a career best effort and she could run as well, or even better, off a two month layoff.
Handicapper Picks
Win: First, consider a win bet on Scylla at odds of 2 to 1 or more.
Fair odds on Vahva are about 3 to 2 but she opens at even money and can’t be bet at odds that low.
Positano Sunset may be less probable than the other two but her 15 to 1 starting odds are out of line with her probability, so she should be considered for a win bet at 6 to 1 or more.
Exacta: Instead of a three horse exacta box we should bet different amounts to try to achieve the results. Based on the morning line odds, and based on a $1 base wager, I’d consider these exactas:
$10 box Scylla, Vahva
$6 box Positano Sunset, Vahva
$4 box Positano Sunset, Scylla
Note: Some theories say to play the biggest $ bet on the exacta paying the highest, which would be Positano Sunset & Scylla, to maximize profit, and I will not argue with those who feel that way.
Doubles and Pick 3:
Race 10: Positano Sunset, Vahva, Scylla
Race 11: Cagliogstro, Angkor, Mullikin
Race 12: World Record, Vettriano, Book ‘em Dano
Forego Stakes - Race 11 at Saratoga - Post Time 4:55 PM Eastern
Contenders: Cagliostro, Angkor, Mullikan
Other contenders: All
I wouldn’t talk anyone off a horse they thought could win this race but there are lines to be drawn in my opinion and Cagliostro, Angkor and Mullikan (the starting favorite) are where the line is drawn over the other five. Cagliostro gets a wonderful draw on the outside to relax and stalk just as he’s done in three straight, consisting of two wins and a second place effort. He added blinkers for the first of the three when returning from seven months off and has been in tremendous form ever since, earning 105, 103 and 107 Equibase Speed Figures, the 107 being the second best last race figure in the field behind heavily favored Mullikan. Cagliostro just won the $279K Hanshin Stakes at a mile around one turn and should appreciate this similar seven furlong trip just as well. Having finished first or second in five of his last seven races he figures to be prominent at the wire and opens at pretty sweet odds of 9 to 2.
Angkor opens at two and one-half times those odds, 12 to 1, pretty ridiculous as he ran as well as Cagliostro did when second in the Kelly’s Landing Stakes one day before Cagliostro won, earning a 106 figure, which he also earned two before that. Those big efforts came at six and one-half furlongs so seven is no issue and although Jose Ortiz moves to Cagliostro, there’s no problem as Irad Ortiz, Jr. rides Angkor for the first time. The horse who won the Kelly’s Landing was Closethegamesugar, who came right back to run second to monster sprinter The Chosen Vron in the Bing Crosby Stakes, so Angkor has a big shot to run a lot better than his odds suggest he will.
Mullikan won the John A Nerud Stakes at this distance last month, with a 110 figure and Prat up as today. He earned a 106 figure two before that winning with Prat in April and shoots for his fourth straight win. He’s been first or second in seven of eight races but just the same he’s facing the toughest competition he’s ever faced, so is no standout although he certainly has at least a 25% chance to win.
Others with a shot if running to their best form ever include Gun Pilot, Baby Yoda, Run Classic
Handicapper Picks
Win: We should absolutely consider a win bet on BOTH Cagliostro and on Angkor at odds of 3 to 1.
Exacta: Similar to the strategy in the Ballerina, considering the odds, instead of a three horse box these exactas offer the appropriate return, trying to achieve the same results:
$10 box Cagliostro, Mullikin
$6 box Mullikan, Angkor
$4 box Cagliostro, Angkor
Note: Some theories say to play the biggest $ bet on the exacta paying the highest, which would be Cagliostro & Angkor, to maximize profit, and I will not argue with those who feel that way.
Additionally, because of the value offered, we can play $1 exactas with Cagliostro and Angkor in first and second position and leave Mullikin out, as follows:
Cagliostro over Gun Pilot, Baby Yoda, Run Classic, Angkor, and the opposite.
Angkor over Gun Pilot, Baby Yoda, Run Classic, Cagliostro, and the opposite.
An additional exacta can be played with Mullikan in the win position, since his odds will be too low for a win bet:
Mullikan over Gun Pilot, Baby Yoda, Run Classic, Angkor, Cagliostro
Double:
Race 11: Cagliogstro, Angkor, Mullikin
Race 12: World Record, Vettriano, Book ‘em Dano
H. Allen Jerkens Memorial Stakes - Race 12 at Saratoga - Post Time 5:30 PM Eastern
Win Contenders: Vettriano, World Record, Book ‘em Dano
Others contenders: Domestic Product, Prince of Monaco, Otto the Conqueror, Little Ni
In one of the most competitive editions of this race I’ve ever seen, the 20/1 starting odds on Vettriano are begging for us to take advantage. Those odds are based on the fact he’s only run three times (twice this year), hasn’t won but a first level allowance, and that race for NY breds. HOWEVER, if that effort is to believed he can post the upset. I made the same comment a few weeks back about Arthur’s ride and was right then, and he went off at 5 to 1. First, Vettriano is trained by Brad Cox (who also saddles Timberlake at 5 to 1). By now we all know Cox places his horses where they belong, and it’s rare they are in over their head. If he feels this colt belongs here I will not argue. Second, both of this horse’s races this year were phenomenal, a “eased up” five length win in May and then a seven length romp on June 29. That last effort earned Vettriano a 110 Equibase Speed Figure, higher (faster) than the 108 and 106 Woody Stephens winner Book ‘em Dano and runner-up Prince of Monaco earned, faster than the 105 figure Amsterdam Stakes winner World Record earned and faster than the 106 figure Dwyer Stakes winner Domestic Product earned. Manny Franco rides back and the colt cuts back from a one-turn mile to seven furlongs so there is absolutely no question he can get the distance. He cost $350K at Auction (for a NY bred) and could be any kind.
World Record dominated at this distance in May in his second career start then two later dominated again in the Amsterdam here at Saratoga. He added blinkers for the race and the 105 figure was a career-best effort. Prat leaves for Domestic Product but there’s no problem with Saez getting on and from the rail, World Record will likely be sent for the lead and play “come catch me.”
Book ‘em Dano has won six of eight and finished second in the other two. He won the Woody Stephens at Saratoga at this distance with a 107 figure and absolutely has no knocks. Where he might be the odds-on favorite in most races, in this deep field he opens at 7 to 2 which could prove to be a gift if he wins.
Domestic Product won the Dwyer with a 106 figure and cuts back a furlong. He too has a shot and whereas his odds were 3 to 5 last out he opens at 9 to 2 here. Prince of Monaco came storming home from 16 back after a horrible start in the Woody Stephens and missed by a half-length. Baffert shipped back to his base in California and comes back out with a horse who has a lot of talent, making his second start following seven months off, who won the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity last year with a 103 figure and who earned a 106 figure in the Woody Stephens. Otto the Conqueror beat World Record when second in the Maxfield Stakes at this distance on June 30 then was flattered when World Record won the Amsterdam. His starting odds of 20 to 1 are more than generous for a legitimate contender here. Little Ni led every step of the stretch run in the Jersey Shore Stakes except the last won when beaten a nose by Book ‘em Dano on the wire and has won all three races before that in easy fashion. His only knock is he has never run beyond six furlongs but he has the speed to lead or stalk and be there at the wire, having earned a 108 figure in his most recent race.
Handicapper Picks
Win: In spite of the morning line, NO horse in this field should have odds lower than 4 to 1, and there will be a number of opportunities to bet horses to win at or above that threshold. We should consider win bets on Vettriano, World Record and Book ‘em Dano (choosing the two at the highest odds) at 4 to 1 or more. I could also make the case Otto the Conqueror is worth a small win bet given his 20 to 1 starting odds.
Exactas: World Record, Vettriano, Book ‘em Dano over ALL
Considering the potential value on both World Record and particularly on Vettriano, instead of a place bet an exacta back wheel may be called for: ALL over World Record and Vettriano, which in most cases would have a better return than on a place bet
