Key Races & Bets for Saturday August 3rd, 2024
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Saratoga Derby Invitational - Race 7 at Saratoga - Post Time 3:21 PM Eastern
Win Contenders: Legend of Time, Carson’s Run, Cugino, Diego Velazquez
Legend of Time couldn’t out finish White Palomino (and Trikari) in the similar Belmont Derby last month, but that was because White Palomino ran like a snail on the lead with an opening half-mile in 50 seconds. One before that Legend of Time won the Pennine Ridge Stakes with a big late kick and I suspect the reason William Buick is in to ride from Europe is to ensure this classy colt gets the job done today as he did in three straight stakes between January and March. Appleby and Buick have won nearly 50% of their 32 combined races (15 to be exact) in North America over the last five years and this colt should add to those numbers.
That being said, Carson’s Run is the ONLY grade 1 or group 1 stakes winner in the field, having won the Summer Stakes last September as a two year old. Dylan Davis was up then and gets back on after the colt won under Cheminaud at Monmouth last time out in June. That was his second off a layoff and so he’s going to run even better here and could win his second stakes in a row, likely at much higher odds than Legend of Time, as Carson’s Run opens at 8 to 1 compared to 7 to 2 for Legend of Time.
Cugino is also on a pattern for improvement, having added blinkers two back and then notching his first stakes win last out, but on June 1, in the Audubon Stakes. Irad Ortiz, Jr. gets on and rarely rides for McGaughey but when he does they’ve finished first or second in nine of 17 over the past three years. Even though he’s been rested, Cugino has put in two sparkling workouts in a row on turf and appears ready to pick up where he left off with an “A” race good enough to win.
I’ll only use Diego Velazquez on pick 3 and double tickets played as his starting odds of 2 to 1 are out of line with the other contenders. He makes his U.S. debut off a win last month in Ireland in a Group 3 race. The seven length margin of victory was impressive and he was wide on the far turn as well but I’m not sure he is best at this mile and three-sixteenths distance as even his world class trainer Aiden O’Brien stated he may be better suited to a mile or so. Another top jockey, Ryan Moore, is in to ride, and when O’Brien and Moore team up for North American races they are 9 for 39 over the last five years, with another eight runner-up finishes.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Legend of Time should be considered at 2 to 1 or more.
Carson’s Run and Cugino can be considered at 3 to 1 or more, but with Cugino starting at 3 to 1 it appears Carson’s Run will meet that threshold.
In this race there may be an opportunity for a mathematical edge by using a dutching tool, which prorates wagers for the best value. There’s a free dutching tool at Amwager.com, where you can set the amount you want to bet and the math is done for you to help achieve the best edge. This is just one of many tools, and perks, for bettors at Amwager.com
Double:
Race 7: Legend of Time
Race 8: Brightwork, My Mane Squeeze, Ways and Means
Race 7: Legend of Time, Cugino, Diego Velazquez, Carson’s Run
Race 8: Brightwork
Pick 3:
Race 7: Legend of Time, Cugino, Diego Velazquez, Carson’s Run
Race 8: Brightwork
Race 9: Forever Souper, Big Everest, Johny’s Fireball, Smokin’ T, More Than Looks
Pick 3:
Race 7: Legend of Time
Race 8: Brightwork, My Mane Squeeze, Ways and Means
Race 9: Forever Souper, Big Everest, Johny’s Fireball, Smokin’ T, More Than Looks
Test Stakes - Race 8 at Saratoga - Post Time 3:54 PM Eastern
Contenders: Brightwork, My Mane Squeeze, Ways and Means
Brightwork set the world on fire last spring and summer, winning her first four races in a row including the Grade 1 Spinaway Stakes at Saratoga at this seven furlong trip. Sent two-turns for the first time in the Alcibiades Stakes last fall when well regarded at 9 to 5, she faded to fifth after pressing the pace and yet the connections took a sot in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, another two turn race, where she didn’t compete from start to finish. Rested since then and returning to one turn, having won twice fresh (in her debut and off a layoff), having won at Saratoga twice and having won the only time she ran seven furlongs, Brightwork gets a great post (6) in this six horse field, and her recent workouts have been spectacular so I expect her to fire with an effort good enough to win, and best of all she opens at 6 to 1.
My Mane Squeeze is another horse who should love returning to a one turn trip. She ran a poor fourth in the Acorn Stakes in June, and two before that eighth in the Fantasy around two turns. ALL three other races this year were wins around one turn, including the nearly identical Eight Belles Stakes on Derby weekend. Saez rode her that day and is aboard again, and My Mane Squeeze (like Brightwork) has a win at Saratoga, earned last September. She opens at 5 to 1.
Similar to how I felt about Diego Velazquez in the previous race, Ways and Means opens at 7 to 5 odds out of line with her probability to win compared to the other two. She won an allowance race at Saratoga at a mile in June with a 95 Equibase Speed Figure, which is good but NOT as good as the 101 figure Brightwork earned as a two year old winning the Adirondack Stakes at Saratoga one year ago this weekend, nor the 100 figure My Mane Squeeze earned winning the Eight Belles. She was second to Brightwork in last year’s Spinaway when the odds-on favorite to 5 to 1 for Brightwork, so she’s got a lot of talent and can be part of the exacta, and perhaps win, but still is not a good win bet.
Handicapper Picks
Bets-
Win: I would absolutely bet (one or both) Brightwork and My Mane Squeeze at odds of 5 to 2 or more.
This is another great opportunity to take advantage of the edge provided by the free (and easy to use) Dutching tool at Amwager.
Exacta: Box Brightwork, My Mane Squeeze, Ways and Means
Double:
Race 8: Brightwork, My Mane Squeeze, Ways and Means
Race 9: Forever Souper, Big Everest, Johny’s Fireball, Smokin’ T
Race 8: Brightwork, My Mane Squeeze
Race 9: Forever Souper, Big Everest, Johny’s Fireball, Smokin’ T, More Than Looks
(we are avoiding double tickets using the favorites in both races 8 and 9)
Pick 3:
Race 8: Brightwork, My Mane Squeeze
Race 9: Forever Souper, Big Everest, Johny’s Fireball, Smokin’ T
Race 10: Cogburn, Grooms All Bizness
(we are avoiding pick 3 tickets using the favorites in races 8 and 9 since we have the heavy favorite in race 10)
Lure Stakes - Race 9 at Saratoga - Post Time 4:29 PM Eastern
Win Contenders: Smokin’ T, Big Everest, Forever Souper, More than Looks
Longshot contender: Johny’s Fireball
Smokin’ T won this race last year at five to one odds with John Velazquez in the saddle, off a layoff since May 27. The pattern is nearly identical as he last ran on June 1 and gets Johnny V again for Hall-of-Fame trainer Shug McGaughey. The horse won the Appleton Stakes in March and his best race is good enough to win this race for the second year in a row.
Big Everest has won nine of 18 races, all on turf, on the lead and from off the pace, and Rosario has been aboard for nearly every win. He won a stakes last Fall and won a classified allowance race last time out so fits on all counts.
Forever Souper has won six of 13 on grass including a stakes like this one last month in Maryland. He gets Castellano and his best effort is also good enough to win.
More Than Looks isn’t a standout by any means but opens as the 2 to 1 favorite. He won a stakes last September and last July but has been off for nine months. Irad Ortiz, Jr. rides and that is likely one of the main reasons he figures to be favored but his best effort isn’t any better than any of the other contenders.
If his odds stay near the 20 to 1 starting odds, Johny’s Fireball is going to get a few dollars of my money to win as those are too high to pass up. Winner of over $400,000 while victorious in four of 13 grass races, Johny’s Fireball won strongly last fall on the Keeneland turf under Saez and one before last won a highly rated third level allowance at Churchill Downs in a field of 10. His best is absolutely good enough to compete with these.
Handicapper Picks
Win: I will consider win bets on two of these three at 3 to 1 or more – Smokin’ T, Big Everest, Forever Souper
I will also make at least a token $5 or $10 win bet on Johny’s Fireball at 10 to 1 or more.
Exactas:
Johny’s Fireball over Smokin’ T, Big Everest, Forever Souper, More Than Looks
Smokin’ T, Big Everest, Forever Souper, More Than Looks over Johny’s Fireball
Smokin’ T, Big Everest, Forever Souper over Smokin’ T, Big Everest. Forever Souper, More Than Looks, Johny’s Fireball
Doubles:
Race 9: Forever Souper, Big Everest, Johny’s Fireball, Smokin’ T
Race 10: Cogburn, Grooms All Bizness
Race 9: Forever Souper, Big Everest, Johny’s Fireball, Smokin’ T, More Than Looks
Race 10: Grooms All Bizness
Troy Stakes - Race 10 at Saratoga - Post Time 5:04 PM Eastern
Win Contenders: Grooms All Bizness, Cogburn
Although we have a nearly full field of 11 entered, two stand out, the odds-on favorite Cogburn and the potential upsetter Grooms All Bizness, who opens at 8 to 1. Cogburn doesn’t need much talking up, if any, as he just won the Grade 1 Jaipur under identical conditions on the Saratoga grass in June, his second graded stakes win in two starts this year. He also won the 2023 Troy. He can win on the lead or from off the pace and the Jaipur is already a KEY race as the third, fourth and seventh finishers all improved to win their next starts. He’s won five of six on grass and is likely to win another given the 115 Equibase figure earned in the Jaipur.
That being said, Grooms All Bizness ran just as fast winning the Get Serious Stakes last out, with a 114 figure effort. It was also his second turf stakes win in a row, in two starts this year. He’s won six of 13 on grass and has only finished farther back than second one time in his last seven races so if he’s not first he should complete the exacta.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Grooms All Bizness at 3 to 1 or more.
Exactas:
Box Cogburn and Grooms All Bizness
