Key Races & Bets for Saturday August 31st, 2024
Brought to you by Amwager.com, a great legal online wagering website with great betting tools and perks, legal for residents of most states and covering most tracks in North America as well as many in the rest of the world.
Nashville Derby - Race 8 at Kentucky Downs - Post Time 5:16 PM Eastern
Win Contenders: Cameo Performance, Abrumar, Carson’s Run, Cugino
Other contenders: White Palomino, Bellum Justum
Cameo Performance and Abrumar finished first and second, respectively, in the prep stakes for this race at Ellis Park four weeks ago, with Cameo Performance out fishing Abrumar in the final 16th of a mile after Abrumar got a length and one-half lead. Their starting odds of 12 to 1 and 15 to 1 are ridiculously high based on those efforts and I could easily see them finishing first and second once again.
Carson’s Run won the Saratoga Derby Invitational 20 days ago for his second stakes win in a row, both with big late kicks to get up in time. Rosario takes over and he’d be no surprise if winning his third stakes in a row and earning his fifth career win in only the eighth start of his career.
Cugino won the Audubon Stakes when last seen on June 1 and has been rested since. He also has been ultra-consistent, with two wins and three runner-up efforts from six career starts, and in two of the second place efforts he lost by a few inches. Prat rides back after being up for the Audubon and appears to have chosen Cugino over Chad Brown’s White Palomino, who ran big when beaten a head in the Belmont Derby in his most recent race.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Considering the best last effort among the contender, even by a small margin, belongs to Cameo Performance, we should consider a win bet on him first, at odds of 7 to 2 or more.
Given the excellent betting value on races at Kentucky Downs, where there are usually no heavy favorites, we can consider at least one of the other contenders, or even two, for win bets at 9 to 2. Those are Abrumar, Carson’s Run and Cugino
There’s a great tool at Amwager which is easy to use, called a dutching tool, for just these situations. Select WIN, the total amount you want to bet and click the “Dutch” button and all the math is done for you to get the best edge.
Exactas:
Cameo Performance. Abrumar, Carson’s Run, Cugino over Cameo Performance. Abrumar, Carson’s Run, Cugino, White Palomino, Bellum Justum
Cameo Performance. Abrumar, Carson’s Run, Cugino, White Palomino, Bellum Justum over Cameo Performance. Abrumar, Carson’s Run, Cugino
Ladies Turf Sprint - Race 9 at Kentucky Downs - Post Time 5:50 PM Eastern
Win Contenders: Ag Bullet, Dontlookbackatall, Danse Macabre, Secret Money
I’ll start with Dontlookbackatall, Danse Macabre and Secret Money, who all exit the Grade 3 Caress Stakes at Saratoga on July 25. Dontlookbackatall rallied from fifth in the final eighth of a mile to win by a neck over Danse Macabre, who had rallied from fourth to make the lead with yards to go before coming up a neck short. Secret Money was sixth with an eighth to run and was beaten two necks and a head for the win. Dontlookbackatall is about as consistent a turf sprinter as they come, having finished first or second in all of her last seven similar races, including three wins in a row so she has to get slight preference. That being said, Danse Macabre can turn the tables on the horse who beat her last time out as she was coming back from eight months off, and she has a similar fantastic record on grass of 5-4-1 in 10 races. Secret Money was next to Danse Macabre and both were going for the same hole in the stretch in the Caress and that effort can’t be faulted as she might have run better if on the outside as the winner was. ALL THREE were flattered by Future is Now, who finished third in the race and who came back to win a stakes in her only start since then.
Then there’s Ag Bullet, who has won five of six races on turf in her career including ALL THREE races which were at this six and one-half furlong trip. She’s three-for-three on grass with Rispoli aboard as today, and although she wasn’t off for as long as Danse Macabre before her last start, she was off for nearly four months and is likely to run even better. With a field high last race 110 Equibase figure to improve upon, she gets slight preference, not to mention her win on July 21 came at a mile and I really like the cut back a bit in distance which should give her some extra stamina compared to the other three, whose last race as five and one-half furlongs.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Considering the best last effort among the contender, even by a small margin, belongs to Ag Bullet, we should consider a win bet on her first, at odds of 7 to 2 or more.
Similar to the previous race, we can make win bets on one or two of the others, at 4 to 1 or more – Dontlookbackatall, Danse Macabre, Secret Money
Exacta: Box Ag Bullet, Dontlookbackatall, Danse Macabre, Secret Money
Ladies Turf Stakes - Race 10 at Kentucky Downs - Post Time 6:24 PM Eastern
Win Contenders: Implicated, Mouffy
Other Contenders: Nadette, Sacred Wish, Walkathon
Implicated won at the highest level of any horse in this field in their most recent race, capturing the Grade 2 Nassau Stakes at Woodbine at the end of June. That was at this identical one mile turf trip and she won pretty easily by nearly two lengths. That was her second start following three months off and a trainer change to the Brendan Walsh barn, and she won her first start for Walsh as well, in May. Gaffalione was up for the first win and gets back on the 108 Equibase Figure effort from the Nassau is good enough to win this grade 3 stakes if repeated and would add to the filly’s perfect record, now 3-for-3, at one mile on grass.
Mouffy ran a similar race to Implicated when last seen, taking the Perfect Sting Stakes in July with a 108 figure. She was second in two graded stakes at a mile in February and March and has never been worse than second in four tries at the distance. Frankie Dettori knows her well as he was up for the July win and one of the runner-up efforts so Mouffy would be no surprise if adding to her strong record as well (5-4-0 in 12 races including a 3-2-0 record in six turf starts).
Nadette won the Wilshire Stakes at this distance in April so fits with these. Sacred Wish missed by a neck in the Matchmaker Stakes in her most recent race, and Walkathon won the prep for this race at Ellis Park four weeks ago for her second stakes win in a row. All three have a shot to win and at the least must be played on exacta tickets.
Handicapper Picks
Win: We should consider BOTH Implicated and Mouffy for win bets at 3 to 1 or more
Exactas:
Implicated and Mouffy over Implicated, Mouffy, Nadette, Sacred Wish and Walkathon
Implicated, Mouffy, Nadette, Sacred Wish and Walkathon over Implicated and Mouffy
