Key Races & Bets for Saturday December 28th, 2024
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Alex Robb Stakes - Race 8 at Aqueduct - Post Time 3:35 PM Eastern
Top Win Contenders: Bank Frenzy, Whittington Park
For exactas: Sheriff Bianco
Bank Frenzy not only is ultra-consistent, with a career record of 5-5-0 in 13 races including 3-3-0 in six races at Aqueduct, he has run the best three races of his life in his last three starts, all since moving to the Rodriguez barn. His most recent win, at this mile trip here at Aqueduct, earned him a career-best 107 Equibase Speed Figure. It was the first time Franco rode the horse and he’s riding back as well, more reasons to expect a repeat effort good enough to win this race.
Whittington Park has one more career win (6) than Bank Frenzy, but in 21 starts. He’s won four of nine at Aqueduct, including the identical Haynesfield Stakes in February under Carmouche. He was completely overmatched in the Carter and Westchester after that, and even when returning to face NY Bred company only in June, then August, he didn’t run as well as he had previously. However, the four month layoff he comes back from appears to have done him a ton of good, as his recent half-mile workout was 48 flat and the best of 38 on the day. Considering his win in the Haynesfield earned a 108 figure on par with Bank Frenzy’s recent win, he has about the same probability to win if repeating that effort from February and is the other main contender to win this race.
Handicapper Picks
Win: We should consider Bank Frenzy and Whittington Park for win bets at odds of 2 to 1 or higher, betting the one of the pair at the highest odds to win.
Exacta: Bank Frenzy and Whittington Park over Bank Frenzy, Whittington Park and Sheriff Bianco
Joe Hernandez Stakes - Race 6 at Santa Anita - Post Time 5 PM Eastern
Top Win Contenders: Irideo, Motorious, Unconquerable Keen
For exacta tickets: Air Force Red, Gaslight Dancer, Sorrento Sky
Irideo gets slight preference as he is likely to go to post at higher odds than Motorious, who comes out of the tougher Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, while Irideo has been running in allowance level races. However, Irideo has run well enough in his last two races to win this year’s Joe Hernandez Stakes, particularly if he repeats his effort one before last at six furlongs on the Santa Anita turf course, winning by a half-length and earning a career-best 109 Equibase Speed Figure. Hector Berrios rode Irideo for the first time in nearly a year in that race and then was aboard for his next start, on November 16, where Irideo rallied from third and battled down to the wire coming up two heads short of victory. This past January, Irideo won the Clocker’s Corner Stakes at this six and one-half furlong trip down the hillside turf at Santa Anita, with a 108 figure, the same race Motorious finished second in last year, (with a 100 figure). As such, Irideo appears to have the same win probability as Motorious, but offers better value.
Motorious will be favored by bettors off his near upset in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint on November 2, where he was a neck shy of posting the 12 to 1 upset in a big effort, which earned a 109 Equibase Speed Figure. One race prior to that, at the same five-furlong trip as the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, Motorious won the Green Flash Handicap with a visually impressive rally from seventh with an eighth of a mile to run. He equaled his 113 career-best figure in the Green Flash, which he also earned winning the San Simeon Stakes down this hillside turf course in March of 2023. Similar to Irideo, Motorious moves from a five-furlong race to a six and one-half furlong downhill turf race and also has prior top form at the trip, in the previously mentioned 2023 San Simeon Stakes. Jockey Antonio Fresu rode Motorious in both of his two recent races and rides back so in his current form there can be little doubt Motorious can win.
Unconquerable Keen is another top turf sprinter in excellent form, having won the Stormy Liberal Stakes on the first day of December. He earned the same 109 figure in that win as Motorious earned when beaten a neck in the Breeders’ Cup Turf and jockey Umberto Rispoli rides him once more. Unconquerable Keen also won the 2023 Stormy Liberal Stakes, earning a career-best 113 figure which equals the best effort Motorious has put forth to date. If there is one question mark, it is that Unconquerable Keen has run twice at this six and one-half furlong downhill trip, finishing seventh both times. Other than that, and particularly based on his most recent effort, Unconquerable Keen must be taken very seriously as a contender in this field.
Honorable mention goes to Air Force Red, Gaslight Dancer and Sorrento Sky. Air Force Red has won four of eight races on the grass at Santa Anita and finished second in two others. He finished second in the Eddie D Stakes at this distance when last seen near the end of September, earning a 110 figure which would be competitive with the top contenders if repeated. On the other hand, the rail can be disadvantageous at this distance because of a right hand turn shortly after the start. Noting that Air Force Red finished second by a head from the rail in the Siren Lure Stakes in the spring of 2023, perhaps it may not be a disadvantage to him. Sorrento Sky gets the advantageous outside post for this distance. His two most recent races were the best of his career, first when winning down the hillside course in October with a 107 figure effort, then when coming up a half-length shy of Unconquerable Keen in the Stormy Liberal Stakes after making the lead early in the stretch. If he repeats that last effort, he could certainly fill out the exacta once again. Gaslight Dancer steps into stakes ranks off allowance and starter allowance races but has won two in a row, excluding the race two back where he stumbled at the start and lost the rider. He is in the best form of his career and could have a say at double digit odds.
Handicapper Picks
Win: We should consider Irideo and Unconquerable Keen for win bets at odds of 5 to 2 or higher.
Both horses may have odds higher than that threshold, so we can bet both and maximize our edge by “Dutching,” which means prorating the total amount wagered to achieve bout the same return. There’s a free “Dutching” tool at Amwager which does all the work for you.
Exacta:
Irideo, Unconquerable Keen and Motorious over Irideo, Unconquerable Keen, Motorious, Air Force Red, Gaslight Dancer and Sorrento Sky.
Blue Norther Stakes - Race 8 at Santa Anita - Post Time 6:06 PM Easter
Top win contenders: Supa Speed, Will Then
Exacta contenders: Sea Runner, Resolve, Casalu
Supa Speed won in her debut in a turf sprint in August, the stretched out and stepped up to finishing second of 11 in the Juvenile Fillies Turf Stakes in September, a race identical to this one. In her only race since then, well regarded at 5 to 1 in the 14 horse Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance Stakes on Breeder’ Cup week, Supa Speed had ZERO change due to a horrific trip where she was checked in traffic not once, not twice, not three times, but FOUR times. She returns with Flavien Prat taking the call, having the best year of his career by already setting the single season record for stakes wins in North America, put in a very strong workout coming into the race and with a strong 96 Equibase Speed Figure effort in the Juvenile Fillies Turf to improve upon has a big shot to succeed. In addition, the TB Aftercare Alliance Stakes has proven to be VERY productive. The first four have not run back, but the fifth ran second in a graded stakes, the 7th finisher ran second in a stakes and the sixth won a stakes.
Will Then goes for her third straight win, the most recent coming in the slightly higher level Grade 3 Jimmy Durante Stakes four weeks ago at this trip. She improved from an 83 figure effort to 93 and with logical further improvement should run as well, or better than, Supa Speed. In the Jimmy Durante, she was wide on the turn and exploded in the stretch so is the other main contender to win this race.
For the exacta, in second position we can consider Sea Runner, Resolve and Casalu. Sea Runner and Casalu finished fourth and second behind Will Then in the Jimmy Durante. Two races before that Casalu finished second in the Surfer Girl Stakes while Sea Runner was two and one-half lengths behind Supa Speed when third in the Juvenile Fillies Turf. Resolve was third in the Jimmy Durante so all three have been competitive but there is no reason to believe either can turn the tables on either Will Then or Supa Speed.
Handicapper Picks
Win: We should consider Supa Speed and Will Then for win bets at odds of 2 to 1 or higher.
If more than one of the contenders are above fair odds, we can bet more than one of them to win. The best way to do that is to use a “Dutching” tool, which prorates our wagers to maximize our edge. Amwager has a free dutching tool where all you need to do is enter the total amount you want to invest on win bets and the bets are then prorated based on the odds.
Exacta: Supa Speed and Will Then over Supa Speed, Will Then, Sea Runner, Resolve and Casalu
