Key Races & Bets for Saturday February 8th, 2025
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Minaret Stakes - Race 6 at Tampa Bay Downs - Post Time 2:44 PM Eastern
Top win contenders: Nic’s Style, Miuccia
Nic’s Style has won five of six career starts and finished second in the other, that race being the much higher level Grade 2 Gallant Bloom Stakes last September. She shipped down from New York to run in a Florida bred stakes at Tampa in December and won easily, then was flattered when the runner-up won her next start. Junior Alvarado has been aboard for all six races and with the last two having yielded 101 and 99 Equibase Speed Figures which are some of the best in the field, Nic’s Style is the one to beat.
That being said, Miuccia is also a stakes winner and has run as fast. Like Nic’s Style, Miuccia enters the race off a win at Tampa, although not a stakes race, but it was an easy win. She won the Game Face Stakes last June with a 103 figure effort and making her second start following more than two months off she should run as well, or better, than the did in that last race.
Dazzling Blue, with four runner-up finishes and three wins, is a horse to use on exacta and trifecta tickets. She’s been second in three of her last four including two stakes and hasn’t won since May of 2023.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Nic’s Style at odds of 7 to 5 or higher.
Miuccia at odds of 9 to 5 or higher
Exacta and Trifecta: Nic’s Style and Miuccia over Nic’s Style, Dazzling Blue and Miuccia over Nic’s Style, Dazzling Blue and Miuccia.
Ladies’ Turf Sprint Stakes - Race 10 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 4:49 PM Eastern
Top win and exacta contenders: Karaya, Just a Care, Freedom Speaks
With it apparent that Shoshonah, Epona’s Hope and Beauty of the Sea are all NEED THE LEAD types who will battle for the lead at any cost and be vulnerable to being passed in the final stages of the race, Karaya, Just a Care and Freedom Speaks all have what it takes to win. Slight preference goes to Karaya, who finished second behind Just a Care in the identical Abundntia Stakes at this five furlong trip on turf on December 28, the most recent race for both. Just a Care was ninth in that race after a half-mile and ran on very well while making her second start following returning from five months off. She had won a race on all-weather prior to that but improved markedly second off the layoff and upon moving to grass, earning a career-best 101 Equibase Speed Figure. John Velazquez gets on as Irad Ortiz, Jr. is at Tampa Bay Downs today, and with just slight improvement off that last start Karaya can turn the tables on Just a Care and post the mild upset.
Just a Care has no real knocks as that win on 12/28 came following two months off and on the trainer change to Lynch. Alvarado, who is also riding at Tampa, was aboard for the win and is ably replace by Saez, who rode the mare in her win in October. Now with four wins in nine races, three on grass, and the best with a 105 figure, Just a Care is absolutely capable of winning her second in a row, particularly with a very strong five furlong workout (59.4) on the grass coming into this race.
Freedom Speaks returns to the races after six months off and in the care of a new trainer (for her) in Smullen. She won her debut at this five furlong trip (on all-weather) so proved she can fire fresh and likes the trip, and she won on turf at a similar distance in her third career start, then captured the nearly half-million Music City Stakes on grass with a 100 figure, very good for a three year old. She had some setbacks since then, having been away from April of 2023 until July of last year, and she was still well regarded as both starts last year came in grade 3 stakes races, but she finished sixth and seventh. Freshened again and with a very strong 59 flat five furlong workout coming into the race and a top jockey in Jaramillo, Freedom Speaks might be ignored in the betting and has more than a fair shot of posting the upset win if she returns to her three year old form.
Handicapper Picks
Win: We should consider win bets on two of the three contenders – Karaya, Just a Care and Freedom Speaks, at 5 to 2 odds or higher.
Exacta: Box Karaya, Just a Care and Freedom Speaks
Sam F. Davis Stakes - Race 11 at Tampa Bay Downs - Post Time 5:14 PM Eastern
Win contenders: Naughty Rascal, Poster, Treaty of Rome
Naughty Rascal finished second in the Pasco Stakes four weeks ago at Tampa Bay Downs but was awarded the win when original winner Owen Almighty was disqualified for interference. Prior to that he also finished second, in the shorter (six furlongs) Inaugural Stakes in December. In addition to being in excellent form with 95 then 93 Equibase speed figures in those two races, Naughty Rascal should run even better when stretching out to two-turns as he is doing in this situation, as he won the Armed Forces Stakes at a mile (on turf) prior to the Inaugural. Having now won four of six and no worse than third in the other two races, Naughty Rascal has another potential advantage in that he has raced as far back as fifth before winning. That may give him a tactical edge in this speed laden field in which Camp Hale (on the rail), John Hancock, Dr Ruben M and Owen Almighty all appear to be need-the-lead types, with the latter adding blinkers after leading from start to finish in the Pasco. Jockey Edwin Gonzalez has been aboard for three of the colt’s wins, and per a Race Lens query, trainer Gerald Bennett has a strong record when stretching his horses out from a sprint to a route on dirt the past three years, with a +112% return on investment and 12 wins from 54 races (22%). Those are a lot of factors in favor of Naughty Rascal running good enough to win this year’s Sam F. Davis Stakes.
Poster improved nicely over the course of three races last year as a two year old, going from a 72 speed figure in his debut, to 93, then to 97 when winning the Remsen Stakes in December at the longer distance of one mile and one-eighth. All three races were around two turns and the 63 day layoff he’s coming back from is of no concern, considering there were 56 days between his second win and the Remsen. Jockey Antonio Gallardo, who has finished in the top three among all jockeys at Tampa Bay Downs the past three years, gets on as Flavien Prat moves to John Hancock, so there is no concern with Poster running another “A” race good enough to win.
Treaty of Rome hasn’t run nearly as fast to date as either Naughty Rascal or Poster, but newly turned three year olds can improve markedly from one race to the next and that may be the case here. Stretched out to a mile for his second career start in December, Treaty of Rome improved to a career-best 85 speed figure when winning nicely, then one month later he was beaten inches on the wire in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes. Stretching out to two turns for the first time should bring on improvement based on the colt’s pedigree, as he is a full brother to Donna Veloce, who won a half-million in her career including stakes races and was second in the 2019 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Stakes. Treaty of Rome is trained by Chad Brown, who has never won this race. However, a Race Lens query tells us Brown has won 29 dirt route stakes races for three year olds (from 134 starts) over the last five years, so his winless streak in this race could be broken with Treaty of Rome.
Two additional horses, who appear to fit very well on paper and may be fancied by bettors, are John Hancock and Owen Almighty, but I don’t consider them as likely to win as any of the three contenders above. John Hancock won his one and only race to date, but it was at the distance of six furlongs, so he lacks experience at a mile or more that many of the other entrants in this race possess. Additionally, although he earned a 94 figure which is the third best last race figure in the field, John Hancock won that race when leading from start to finish but may have a tough time getting the same kind of trip considering Camp Hale is drawn inside on the rail and will want the lead from the start. Additionally, Dr Ruben M and Owen Almighty both appear to be horses that need the lead for their best. Owen Almighty led from start to finish last month when winning the seven furlong Pasco Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs (before being disqualified for interference and placed fifth), earning a 95 figure which is the second best last race figure in the field, behind the 97 figure Poster earned winning the Remsen. However, he adds blinkers which can only add to his desire to lead from the start, but has two other horses with the same running style in Camp Hale and John Hancock inside him, forcing him to either go too fast early and making him vulnerable to the stalkers and closers, or will put him in a stalking position where he may not have the needed late kick, similar to the Iroquois Stakes last September when he only moved up one spot, and only made up three-quarters of a length, in the final eighth of a mile.
Handicapper Picks
Win: At odds of 5 to 2 or more, we should consider a win bet on Naughty Rascal and Poster, whichever offers the highest odds. We should also consider a win bet on Treaty of Rome at odds of 3 to 1 or higher.
Exacta: Box Naughty Rascal, Poster, Treaty of Rome
