Key Races & Bets for Saturday January 18th, 2025
Brought to you by Amwager.com, a great legal online wagering website with great betting tools and perks, legal for residents of most states and covering most tracks in North America as well as many in the rest of the world.
Busanda Stakes - Race 8 at Aqueduct - Post Time 3:39 PM Eastern
Win contenders (in preference order): Running Away, My Sherrona, Ramify
Although the Kentucky Oaks is a little less than four months away, these early prep races like the Busanda are significant, particularly as this race is run at nine furlongs, the same as the Oaks. Running Away gets top billing as the only horse who has won around two-turns, and one of only three to have run in a two turn race to date. The rest have run in one-turn miles, which are still routes, but not as representative of this trip as, for example, the mile and one-sixteenth distance Running Away won at when last seen on November 30. Better still, she dominated late after leading early and even from the nine post she can do the same thing here if need be, or she can take up a stalking trip. As a daughter of Gun Runner, the sire with the most nine furlong stakes winners among all sires in the field, and trained by Wesley Ward, who ships her in from Kentucky, Running Away also possesses the highest (fastest) last race Equibase Speed Figure (84) in the field to improve upon.
My Sherrona is a maiden but has run very well in both starts to date, beaten a half-length each time. She was up by a length in the stretch before losing her most recent race five weeks ago and her stalking style gives her a big shot again on an improving pattern of figures from 75 to 77. Her pedigree suggests she will love the distance as a daughter of Not This Time out of an Include mare and although she was the 4 to 5 favorite last time out, she will go to post at much better odds as a maiden in a stakes.
Ramify was the one who beat My Sherrona in that maiden race five weeks ago, where she showed a ton of maturity but was also very green and didn’t know exactly what to do. She was fifth and 13 lengths back after a half-mile then quickly moved up to bs second early in the stretch before moving by to win. Her 78 figure can be improved upon as well and as Tapit is her dam’s sire she too should have no issues moving to this longer trip.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Running Away at odds of 2 to 1 or more.
I would consider a second win bet on either My Sherrona or Ramify at odds of 7 to 2 or more, betting the one of the pair at the highest odds.
If more than one of the contenders are above fair odds, we can bet more than one of them to win. The best way to do that is to use a “Dutching” tool, which prorates our wagers to maximize our edge. Amwager has a free dutching tool where all you need to do is enter the total amount you want to invest on win bets and the bets are then prorated based on the odds.
Exacta: Box Running Away, My Sherrona, Ramify
Sunshine Sprint Stakes - Race 9 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 4:20 PM Eastern
Win contenders: Damon’s Mound, Comedy Town
Damon’s Mound was a highly regarded two year old in the summer of 2022 when winning the Saratoga Special in only the second start of his career. After some setbacks he won both the Hilton Memorial Stakes and then the Grade 2 Gallant Bob Stakes in the summer and fall of 2023, the latter with a very strong 105 Equibase Speed Figure, bringing his record to four wins in seven dirt sprints. He finished second one month later in another huge effort with a 106 figure in the Steel Valley Sprint before a disappointing fourth place finish and a long layoff, nearly 13 months. Now in the hands of Bill Mott and with some superb workouts, and as mature five year old, there is a lot of evidence he can repeat his best efforts in this situation, which would be good enough to win.
Comedy Town improved markedly last spring after joining the barn of Saffie Joseph, Jr., winning two in a row between June and August, including the Smile Sprint Stakes at Gulfstream at this distance with a 106 figure. Proving that win at 11 to 1 to be no fluke, he won the Benny the Bull Stakes then was competitive with some top sprinters in the Phoenix Stake in October, before taking time off. Drayden Van Dyke was up for those two stakes wins and rides back, and the workouts coming into this race suggest a bit effort good enough to win on the comeback.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Both Damon’s Mound and Comedy Town should be considered for win bets at 2 to 1 or more.
Unusual Heat Turf Classic Stakes - Race 9 at Santa Anita - Post Time 6:30 PM Eastern
Win contenders: On the Whim, Aligato
Secondary win contenders: Old Pal, None Above the Law
Horses for second and third on exact tickets: Takes Three, Barely Functional, We Can, Coalinga Road
First, with a field of 11 and as wide open as this race is I don’t foresee a low odds favorite. It may actually be the favorite is 4 to 1 or higher, which provides an opportunity to play more exacta combinations than we might normally as the return may be worth the risk.
As to the main win contenders, between On the Whim and Aligato I have to start with On the Whim because he draws the rail compared to the seven post for Aligato.. Although at this nine furlong trip, which starts near the top of the stretch, outside posts aren’t as disadvantageous as they are at shorter distances, On the Whim has an additional slight edge in that he has tactical speed, having earned one of his two-turn turf wins leading from start to finish and another when stalking in second for the first seven furlongs. He really loves the turf course at Santa Anita, having won three of five, and he won the nearly identical California Dreaming Stakes, for Cal-breds only, at Del Mar, this past August. He also won the California Flag Handicap for Cal-Breds at six and one-half furlongs at Santa Anita in October. He had traffic trouble in his only start since, which was against “OPEN” (not restricted as this race is) company and he also drew the 11 post for a mile on grass. Today he gets a great post and if he repeats his California Flag or California Dreaming efforts, he can certainly win.
Aligato is a DEEP closer, so the post won’t negatively affect him much if at all. Jockey Flavien Prat comes off the best year of his career and gets back on after two races with another jockey, and Prat was aboard the horse for both the 2023 Turf Classic and last year’s edition of this race, when Aligato rallied to miss by a half-length and a nose on the wire. Glatt and Prat have only teamed up on 27 horses the last five years, for 39 starts, but have won with 10 of those (better than 25%).
Glatt also trains Old Pal, who has a respectable 3-2-4 record in 10 lifetime starts, all on turf. He won the Snow Chief Stakes (restricted to three year olds only) at this distance on this course in May of 2023 then was off for a year but won in May of last year as if he’d never been away. He’s winless in five since but hit the board in four and his last try at this nine furlong trip, on October 12 at Santa Anita, was a big effort when he came flying down the stretch to miss by a nose. None Above the Law went 1 for 11 last year but nearly won the California Flag and was only a half-length and neck behind On the Whim. Smith rode him for the first time then and gets back on after two races with other jockeys. Most importantly, None Above the Law drops significantly in class from the open Grade 2 Hollywood Turf Cup to this Cal-bred stakes level so he has a shot as well.
Handicapper Picks
Win: We should consider both On the Whim and Aligato for win bets at 3 to 1 odds.
We can also consider Old Pal and None Above the Law for win bets at 5 to 1 or more.
If more than one of the contenders are above fair odds, we can bet more than one of them to win. The best way to do that is to use a “Dutching” tool, which prorates our wagers to maximize our edge. Amwager has a free dutching tool where all you need to do is enter the total amount you want to invest on win bets and the bets are then prorated based on the odds.
Exacta:
On the Whim and Aligato over On the Whim, Aligato, Old Pal, None Above the Law, Takes Three, Barely Functional, We Can and Coalinga Road.
On the Whim, Aligato, Old Pal and None Above the Law over On the Whim, Aligato, Old Pal, None Above the Law, Takes Three, Barely Functional, We Can and Coalinga Road.
California Cup Oaks - Race 11 at Santa Anita - Post Time 7:30 PM Eastern
Top win contender: Take Another Card
Other win contenders: Musical Number, Sunset Grazen
Horses for second and third on exacta tickets: Tequilaandtherapy, Chilly Philly, Hey Jessie, Less Is More
Take Another Card ran spectacularly well in her debut about three weeks ago when sprinting on the Santa Anita turf and it’s a highly confident move for trainer Callaghan to bring her back quickly for this race which is essentially similar to a first level allowance race, although there are some winners of Cal-Bred stakes in the field. This is a VERY TALENTED filly, as she lost many lengths at the start but neither she nor Dettori (who rides back) panicked. Instead, she relaxed in fourth after a quarter mile, then third after a half-mile. When called upon she rallied quickly to draw off, earning an 88 Equibase Speed Figure which is fantastic for a Cal-Bred filly at the end of their two year old year. As a matter of fact, that figure is at least five points better than any other horse in the field, and SHE IS LIKELY to improve markedly off that effort in her second career start. The only other foal of the dam to have run in a two-turn race on grass won a two-turn race on grass, so there are no knocks in that area as well.
Musical Number won the first two starts of her career, albeit in a maiden claimer and a starter allowance race, both on dirt and sprints. When stretched out to a mile for the Soviet Problem Stakes last month, she finished fifth of nine in a decent effort and considering the kind of success trainer Dean Pederson has had in these types of races (eight for 30 over the past few years in turf route stakes for Cal-breds) I believe this filly may be able to run better than her high odds suggest she can.
Sunset Grazen won the Golden Gate Debutante Stakes around two turns on dirt at Pleasanton last month, with a decent 81 figure which was 10 points better than the one earned when winning a two-turn race one month earlier. She’s bred to adore the grass and is another with a shot to run well at high odds.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Take Another Card at odds of 5 to 2 or more.
Musical Number and/or Sunset Grazen at 9 to 2 or more
Exacta:
Take Another Card over Musical Number and Sunset Grazen
Box Take Another Card, Musical Number and Sunset Grazen
Take Another Card over Tequilaandtherapy, Chilly Philly, Hey Jessie and Less Is More
