Key Races & Bets for Saturday January 25th, 2025
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Pegasus World Cup Filly & Mare Turf Invitational Stakes - Race 10 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 3:45 PM Eastern
Win contenders: Bless My Stars, Raqiya
Contenders for exactas tickets: Pounce, Be Your Best, Papilio, Sacred Wish, See You Around, In Our Time
Bless My Stars, who starts at 8 to 1 odds, ran sixth of 10 in her U.S. debut a little over one month ago and is likely to improve markedly off the experience of that race, which was also her first start after 10 months off. The mare had won five of 16 in her native South Africa and just wasn’t used to the pace of U.S. racing but was flying home from 10th to be in a blanket finish at the wire, beaten under two lengths at the end while closing fastest of all. Irad Ortiz, Jr. rode her last month and rides her back and that says a lot about the mare’s chances in this situation. She ran the last quarter in the Suwanee River Stakes last month in 22.2 and earned a 103 Equibase Figure only two points less than the winner (Be Your Best) and that bodes very well for her chances to post the mild upset here.
Raqiya is also making her second start since importing to the U.S., and she won the Grade 3 Goldikova Stakes on Breeders’ Cup weekend in that debut on November 2, with a 96 Equibase Speed Figure she can improve upon as well. Dettori rode her marvelously in that race when putting her on the lead then slowing down the pace, and from the rail she may be able to make the early lead from the start once again. In spite of leading from the start, Raqiya ran the last quarter in 22.6 so has what it takes to move up in class to this grade 2 level and repeat the effort. Prior to that win, the filly nearly won a group 3 race in England with a 107 figure so she has all the credentials to win, and in doing so move her record to six wins in nine races. Although her starting odds of 4 to 1 are half of those of Bless My Stars, Raqiya is also a very good bet at those odds.
The six horses listed above for use on exacta tickets have all been competitive in stakes races on grass but appear to be just a cut below the top two in terms of probability to win.
Handicapper Picks
Win: We should strongly consider Bless My Stars and Raqiya at odds of 2 to 1 or more.
Since it is likely both contenders will be above fair odds, we can and should be both to win. The best way to do that is to use a “Dutching” tool, which prorates our wagers to maximize our edge. Amwager has a free dutching tool where all you need to do is enter the total amount you want to invest on win bets and the bets are then prorated based on the odds.
Exacta: Bless My Stars and Raqiya over Bless My Stars, Raqiya, Pounce, Be Your Best, Papilio, Sacred Wish, See You Around, In Our Time.
Inside Information Stakes - Race 11 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 4:20 PM Eastern
Win contenders: Emery, Mystic Lake
Contenders for exacta tickets: Haulin Ice, Olivia Darling
This race isn’t as interesting as the last, but only from a win betting perspective because the two most likely winners start as the favorites. Otherwise it’s a great race and certainly one where these two can be used on double, pick 3 and 4 tickets for profit instead of win bets if there odds are too low. Emery has won five of seven including the Grade 2 Raven Run Stakes at this seven furlong distance when last seen in October. That win came after two and one-half months off and so the three month rest she’s coming back from here is of no concern. Gaffalione has been aboard for all five wins, three in stakes, two at this distance, and the filly gets a great outside post to stalk the speed and win again.
Mystic Lake has won six of 10 sprints in her career and is also a multiple stakes winner. Like Emery, Mystic Lake is proven at the distance with a three for four record. She returned from three months off on December 21 to win the Sugar Swirl Stakes at Gulfstream Park at the shorter distance of six furlongs and Irad Ortiz, Jr., who rode her for the first time in that race, rides back, with a shot to win two important stakes races in a row.
Both Haulin Ice and Olivia Darling, who combined have 20 first or second place finishes in 32 races, are strong contenders to be in the money.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Both Emery and Mystic Lake should be considered for win bets at 8 to 5 or more. My tendency is to be the one at the highest odds of the pair.
Exacta: Emery, Mystic Lake over Emery, Mystic Lake, Haulin Ice, Olivia Darling
The above bet can be played as a trifecta as well, using the same four horses in the third position.
Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational Stakes - Race 12 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 4:55 PM Eastern
Win contenders: Mi Hermano Ramon, Nations Pride
Contenders for second in exacta tickets: Win for the Money, Integration, Major Dude, Balnikhov, Battle of Normandy, Fort Washington, Paros
Mi Hermano Ramon ran a race last month in the San Gabriel Stakes at Santa Anita that would have won 90% or more of the time if there wasn’t a horse of the caliber of Johannes in the field. Arguably one of the best turf runners in North America right now, Johannes finished second prior to that in the Breeders’ Cup Mile and won a number of graded stakes on grass before that, as well as the San Gabriel after that. Mi Hermano Ramon made a visually impressive move while wide on the turn in the San Gabriel to go from fifth to first, by a head, with an eighth of a mile to run, but was just slightly out finished by Johannes. That effort earned a 123 Equibase Speed Figure for which there is no equal in this field except for Nations Pride, and considering Mi Hermano Ramon earned a 120 figure prior to that winning the Seabiscuit Handicap in November, and particularly as his starting odds are 8 to 1, this horse has to get top billing.
Nations Pride starts at 2 to 1 odds and will likely continue to be bet as the favorite in this race, because he’s won 8 of 17 on grass and earned $3 million, including three grade 1 stakes wins. He ran poorly in three of his last seven races, but two of those were in Bahrain where the horses race clockwise (right handed) and his world class jockey William Buick is certain that is why he ran poorly. His other poor effort came in the Man O’War Stakes last May, but that was off a five month layoff. His efforts last summer when winning the Arlington Million (with a 118 figure) and closing fast for second in the Manhattan (121 figure) prove he can win this race with his best efforts.
There are a number of horses which have a shot to hit the board and all are listed above in the “contenders for second on exacta tickets” line.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Considering Nations Pride will be the favorite at 2 to 1 or less, there is only one choice for a win bet that offers excellent return for the risk, and that is Mi Hermano Ramon at odds of 2 to 1 or higher.
Exacta:
Mi Hermano Ramon and Nations Pride over Mi Hermano Ramon, Nations Pride, Win for the Money, Integration, Major Dude, Balnikhov, Battle of Normandy, Fort Washington, Paros.
Because we will likely be unable to bet Nations Pride to win at low odds, we can play an exacta with him on top to get a better return than on a win bet: Nations Pride over Mi Hermano Ramon, Win for the Money, Integration, Major Dude, Balnikhov, Battle of Normandy, Fort Washington, Paros.
Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes - Race 13 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 5:40 PM Eastern
Top win contenders: Skippylongstocking, Saudi Crown, Stronghold
Other contenders: White Abarrio, Locked
When assessing factors that winners of this race have possessed in previous years, it appears running in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile or Breeders’ Cup Classic has significant weight. That makes sense, given those two races are the top races near the end of the year for horses running on dirt from one mile to a mile and one-quarter, which lends itself to success in this mile and one-eighth race. Three horses in this field ran in one of those two races on November 3 – Mixto, Saudi Crown and Skippylongstocking. Considering that Mixto finished 11th of 14 at odds of 69 to 1 in the Classic, has not won or finished second in three races at the distance of the Pegasus and was winless for six races before his victory in the Pacific Classic and winless twice since, he’s just not a horse I consider having a good probability to win this race. The other two, however, both seem perfectly capable of winning this year’s Pegasus.
Skippylongstocking gets slight preference over Saudi Crown because he’s run 10 times at Gulfstream Park on dirt, winning three times, while Saudi Crown is running over the surface for the first time. Skippylongstocking continues to perform well in most of his races, particularly at this distance where he has won five of 13 races in his career. The two best of those efforts, which also happen to be the best two races of his career, came last year when winning the Oaklawn Handicap in April and the Charles Town Classic in August, both with career-best 114 Equibase Speed Figures. Following the Charles Town Classic, Skippylongstocking led in the stretch in the Woodward Stakes at this distance, before ending up second and beaten less than a length. His only race since then was when sixth of 13 in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile the first week in November. Since then, he appears to have been preparing for this race in fine fashion, with six workouts evenly spaced seven days apart. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione has ridden Skippylongstocking four times among his last 10 races, winning twice including the 2023 Charles Town Classic as well as the Challenger Stakes last March, which was the last time Gaffalione was in the saddle. Considering the quality of the field he faced in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile and his superb record at the mile and one-eighth distance of the Pegasus, I think Skippylongstocking should be a very strong contender in the race from start to finish.
Saudi Crown, with jockey Florent Geroux aboard, could be the horse the duo of Skippylongstocking/Gaffalione has to catch to win. This is because he draws the number two post position in the gate and has used his excellent early speed to earn four of his six wins leading from the start. One of those came in the 2023 Pennsylvania Derby where Saudi Crown earned a career-best 114 Equibase Speed Figure while controlling the tempo from start to finish at the distance of the Pegasus. He can also win from just off the pace, as evidenced when winning the Tenacious Stakes on December 21 after racing in second for the first three-quarters of a mile. That effort earned a 113 figure, right up there with the 114 best figures Skippylongstocking has earned. Prior to the Tenacious, Saudi Crown went to post at the same seven-to-one odds as Skippylongstocking in the Dirt Mile but finished last of 13 compared to sixth for Skippylongstocking. Still, this horse has shown a lot of quality, winning half of his 12 career starts, and considering he is making his third start since returning from a three-month layoff in November we should expect a top effort that could be good enough to win.
Stronghold may have twice as many second-place finishes (six) in his career as compared to wins (three) but three of those runner-up efforts came in his last three races, two at the top level in the Pennsylvania Derby and the Malibu Stakes. His Equibase figures have significantly improved in his last three races as he has matured physically as well, going from 102 in July, to 107 in the Pennsylvania Derby, to 114 in the Malibu. That last effort puts him right there with the top two contenders if replicated and gives him a chance to post the mild upset if he improves upon it and the other two do not run as well as expected. The only two times he has run the distance of the Pegasus, Stronghold has run exceptionally well. One of those was when second in the Pennsylvania Derby and the other was when winning the Santa Anita Derby last April. Making his second start following three months off and first as a four year old, Stronghold must be considered a strong contender in this group.
Honorable mention must go to Locked and to White Abarrio. Locked returned from 11 months off in October to win an allowance race then won the Cigar Mile Handicap with a 113 figure which certainly is competitive with the top horses here if repeated. However, there is a question about this distance, which he has never run previously, noting the Cigar win came in a one turn mile race. White Abarrio earned a 116 figure winning the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Classic and has won six of eight races on the Gulfstream Park main track. Like Locked, White Abarrio stretches out from a one-turn race following a second-place finish in the Mr. Prospector Stakes four weeks ago. He won the 2023 Whitney Stakes at this distance with a career-best 122 figure, but he was a four year old then and in his two races at the end of last year as a five year old, including the Mr. Prospector, White Abarrio earned 104 and 100 figures which would not make him competitive if repeated in this field.
Handicapper Picks
Win: We should consider both Skippylongstocking and Saudi Crown at odds of 5 to 2 or more
We should also consider Stronghold at odds of 4 to 1 or more.
This is absolutely a race to bet more than one horse to win, particularly as I feel the starting favorite, Locked, has less probability to win than the three top win contenders. This is where the dutching tool at Amwager comes in very handy in helping get the best mathematical edge possible.
Exactas:
Box Skippylongstocking, Saudi Crown, Stronghold
Skippylongstocking, Saudi Crown, Stronghold over Skippylongstocking, Saudi Crown, Stronghold, Locked, White Abarrio
