Key Races & Bets for Saturday July 20, 2024
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Monmouth Cup Stakes - Race 10 at Monmouth - Post Time 4:38 PM Eastern
Top win Contender: Counterspy
Other win contender: Highland Falls
Counterspy is a “lone front runner” with an aggressive rider in Paco Lopez, who was up for a very strong win on June 10 where the horse won more easily than it appears, earning a 108 Equibase Speed Figure which is the best/fastest winning figure earned by any horse in the field this year. In his only start since, he did not get the lead in a seven furlong race where the opening half-mile was :44 and change but he was four lengths off that hot pace which projects to an easy lead in this two-turn race. Counterspy has won his last four two-turn races, all powerfully, with the one on March 24 even faster than on June 10, as he earned a 112 figure, and so it is highly likely he can win for the seventh time in his career. Even if low odds he may offer value in doubles to the next race, the United Nations, and similarly to the pick 3 ending in the Haskell (Race 12).
I can see using Highland Falls on some double and pick 3 tickets, and perhaps playing an exacta box with Counterspy, as he is definitely the horse with the second highest probability to win. Highland Falls finished second to multiple graded stakes winner Skippylongstocking in the $1 million Oaklawn Handicap one before last in April, earning a 111 figure, then easily won the similar Grade 3 Blame Stakes at this distance on June 1 with a 104 figure. If Counterspy falters for any reason, Highland Falls can win.
Handicapper Picks
Win:
Counterspy at odds of 3 to 2 or more, a low odds overlay.
Highland Falls can be considered for a win bet at odds of 5 to 2 or more.
Exactas:
Counterspy over Highland Falls
Box Counterspy and Highland Falls
Doubles:
Race 10: Counterspy
Race 11: Starting Over, Far Bridge, Webslinger
Race 10: Counterspy
Race 11: Starting Over, Far Bridge, Webslinger, Running Bee, Fort Washington
Doubles:
Race 10: Counterspy, Highland Falls
Race 11: Starting Over
For Pick 3 bets in race 12 use Tuscan Sky, Dornoch and Mindframe
United Nations Stakes - Race 11 at Monmouth - Post Time 5:09 PM Eastern
Win contenders: Starting Over, Far Bridge, Webslinger
Other contenders: Running Bee, Fort Washington
In a marathon turf race (11 furlongs or more), experience at these distances gets the most weight when handicapping. That’s why Starting Over gets top billing, because the won the identical Grade 2 Mac Diarmida Stakes when last seen in March at this 11 furlong turf trip. He had won the Colonial Cup Stakes last September at 12 furlongs on turf as well, but he ran even better in the Mac Diarmida, which followed a fine second place finish at 12 furlongs in the McKnight Stakes in January. In the Mac Diarmida, Starting Over was relaxed in eighth of 10 after three-quarters of a mile to run then when given his queue and moved off the rail he really come on strongly, going to sixth at the head of the lane and with clear sailing gobbling up ground to win by a neck. Having fired well of a four month layoff in January this layoff is of no consequence and so Starting Over may be very tough to beat.
Far Bridge won the Grade 1 Belmont Derby against three year olds only last July at 10 furlongs, then finished third, then second, in similar stakes before taking seven months off. Moved to the Clement barn since then, he won his 2024 comeback then ran poorly but last month in the Manhattan he returned to good form even though third as he had no shot against a pair of much classier Godolphin runners, but held third very gamely. As a four year old he’s got room to improve and as a son of English Channel this 11 furlong trip should not prove a problem so he’s definitely a contender, particularly as he’s only finished farther back than third in one of 10 races.
Webslinger, like Starting Over, is proven at the level and distance, having just won a stakes race on June 15 at this 11 furlong turf trip. That was the best race of his career, and even though Jose Ortiz gets off to ride Far Bridge, with Saez getting on this horse could run well enough to win or be part of the exacta.
Running Bee and Fort Washington dead-heated for the win in the Monmouth Stakes on the course last month at the shorter distance of 9 furlongs. Both ran the best races of their careers and may or not regress off those efforts but if they don’t they could have a say in the outcome. Running Bee is a son of English Channel and should run as well at this distance, while Fort Washington isn’t as well-bred for the trip but is in the hands of Hall-of-Fame trainer Shug McGaughey and Carmouche, who rode him so well last time when in the saddle for the first time, rides back.
Handicapper Picks
Win:
Starting Over at 5 to 2 or higher.
Far Bridge and Webslinger at 3 to 1 or more.
In this race there may be an opportunity for a mathematical edge by using a dutching tool, which prorates wagers for the best value. There’s a free dutching tool at Amwager.com, where you can set the amount you want to bet and the math is done for you to help achieve the best edge. This is just one of many tools, and perks, for bettors at Amwager.com
Exactas:
Box Starting Over, Far Bridge, Webslinger
Starting Over, Far Bridge, Webslinger over Starting Over, Far Bridge, Webslinger, Running Bee, Fort Washington
(optionally play the reverse of the above as well).
Lake George Stakes - Race 10 at Saratoga - Post Time 5:38 PM Eastern
Win Contenders: Pounce, Oversubscribed, De Regreso
Contrary to some opinions, I like it when a horse leads past the eighth pole and ends up second or third. In many cases this shows they are trying their best and just got beat by a better horse or two. Better still, in many cases these horses are a bit overlooked by the betting public who weights higher on whether a horse won its most recent race. Pounce meets those standards, as she led from the start in the Penn Oaks Stakes last out at the end of May, was still in front past the eighth pole, then tired and ended up third. However, she’s not a “need the lead” type, as she finished fastest of all two races before that in the Herecomesthebride Stakes in March, rallying from last of eight early, to fifth with an eighth of a mile to run, to get up by a neck. Her two recent workouts on the Saratoga turf are great and she may get a hot pace to chase with Manama Gold stretching out from six furlongs and a few others likely to show early speed. She was 3 to 1 in the Penn Oaks but will be higher odds here and offers better value than Oversubscribed.
Oversubscribed has done nothing wrong in three races, winning her debut in February around two turns on grass, then after nearly three months off finishing second before a strong win last month in the Wild Applause Stakes at Aqueduct at this mile turf trip. She made up 16 lengths in that race and is another likely to be flying late, but as she’s trained by Char Brown is likely to be the betting favorite.
De Regreso has run the most of any of these, 10 times so far, but has won four times including her last three and that makes her a strong contender. She won the Honey Ryder Stakes at this mile turf trip in May then five weeks later won the off-turf Martha Washington Stakes on all-weather. She raced up close in second in the latter but moved up from fifth to lead into the stretch in the former and has the tactical speed to be well placed by Manny Franco in the early stages before launching her late bid so rounds out the trio of win contenders in this race.
Handicapper Picks
Win:
Pounce can be considered for a win bet at odds of 3 to 1 or more.
So too can Oversubscribed, but that’s unlikely given the reasons mentioned above.
De Regreso can be considered for a win bet at 4 to 1 or more.
Exactas:
Box Pounce, Oversubscribed, De Regreso
