Key Races & Bets for Saturday March 1st, 2025
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Fountain of Youth Stakes - Race 13 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 5:42 PM Eastern
Win contenders: Sovereignty, Burnham Square
The biggest of this weekend’s Derby preps is the Fountain of Youth Stakes and it provides an opportunity to use the handicapping process including the process of elimination of some horses having one reason or another they have less probability than others to succeed, particularly when compared against the two main win contenders – Sovereignty and Burnham Square.
The first of those is River Thames, the horse I think will be the lowest odds of that group, based on his two wins by a total of more than 10 lengths and the fact that he’s trained by Todd Pletcher. The first of the two wins, at six furlongs, earned the colt a very strong 105 Equibase speed figure. However, when stretched to one mile and although winning by six and one-half lengths, River Thames did not run as fast, only earning an 84 figure. It might be said he was so far in front he was geared down, but that type of regression is concerning, particularly as he’s stretching out again by a sixteenth of a mile and being asked to run two-turns for the first time. Based on his pedigree I think that could be an issue as a Race Lens query reveals sons and daughters of Maclean’s Music have done well in stakes but mostly up to and including one mile. The dam of River Thames was a sprinter and that is another reason I am taking a stand against the potential favorite as a win contender.
Similar to River Thames, there are concerns with Keep It Easy, who won the Ed Brown Stakes when last seen at the end of November. He earned a 94 figure for the effort, and although his sire Hard Spun finished second in the 2007 Kentucky Derby, of late not many of his progeny have won a race at this level and distance. However, it must be noted his son Two Phils finished second in the 2023 Kentucky Derby (and won the Ohio Derby) and his son Built finished third in this year’s Risen Star. Due to concerns about pedigree I’ll wait to see how Keep It Easy performs at this distance before endorsing him. Similarly, Gate to Wire won the Swale Stakes last month by five lengths with a 94 figure, but the Swale has not been an effective prep for winning the Fountain of Youth recently as the 2024 winner finished third in this race and the 2021 winner was second in this race.
Next, there’s Neoequos, whose best figure is 91, earned when second in the Florida Sire Affirmed Stakes in October, is similar to River Thames in that he is out of a mare who was a sprinter with her other foals being sprinters as well. Additionally, from an outside post it appears he will have to use a lot of speed to get to the rail and the lead where he likes to be which makes him susceptible to being passed in the final stages of the race. Following Neoequos, McKellen ran very well in the first two starts of his career, particularly when second at a mile in November with a 90 figure. That race was won by Disco Time, who won the Lecomte Stakes on the Road to the Derby in January. The last of the group is Solid Left, who won at the distance of this race over the track on January 26, earning an 80 figure. That effort requires too much improvement to get to the level of about 100 needed to win this race in my opinion.
Following that handicapping process, I’m down to Sovereignty and Burnham Square as the two horses which possess the bulk of the probability to win this race. Sovereignty improved in all three races as a two year old, going from an 87 figure when stretched out to a mile for his second start to a 96 figure when running in his first race around two turns. That race was the Street Sense Stakes where Sovereignty started an eye-catching rally with a quarter mile to go, six paths wide, going from ninth to second with an eighth of a mile to run. Further accelerating, Sovereignty drew off by five lengths at the end. I have little concern about the layoff of more than three months, given the colt calls the barn of Hall-of-Fame trainer Bill Mott home, because Mott has shown an affinity for getting horses to run big off similar layoffs. Considering how much a horse can grow physically from the end of their two year old season to their three year old campaign, I think Sovereignty is going to improve markedly off his last effort, making him the horse to beat in this year’s Fountain of Youth Stakes.
Burnham Square has the advantage of a more recent race compared to Sovereignty, as he won the Holy Bull Stakes last month over the track. Like Sovereignty, Burnham Square is on an improving pattern of figures, having earned an 86 figure in his first two turn race in November, then 92 when winning easily by nine lengths near the end of the year, to 95 in the Holy Bull. Blinkers added for his second race made a big difference, and I can see Burnham Square taking another big step forward off his last effort. If that is the case, the battle to the wire between he and Sovereignty may be something to behold.
Handicapper Picks
Win: We should consider win bets on Sovereignty and on Burnham Square at odds of 9 to 5 or higher.
Doubles:
Race 13: Sovereignty, Burnham Square
Race 14: Cash Equity, Sugoi, Grand Sonata, Dashman
Mac Diarmida Stakes - Race 14 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 6:12 PM Eastern
Top win contender: Grand Sonata, Sugoi, Dashman, Cash Equity
I am a big subscriber to the theory that horses that have run well at marathon distances (1 3/8 miles and up) run well at marathon distances, particularly if those efforts came in stakes races. With that in mind the contender list quickly boils down to the four contenders above.
Grand Sonata has been running against the toughest competition of the quartet, with only grade 1 or 2 races among his last six starts. He won one of those (the Turf Cup at Kentucky Downs in September) and missed by a nose in another (the United Nations Stakes in July) and among some of the best in the country a little over one month ago in the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational, Grand Sonata was beaten four lengths in a field of 12. He’s not necessarily a horse who loves to win, evidenced by five wins and six runner-up efforts in 26 career starts, but two of his four turf wins have come at Gulfstream Park. The key reason Grand Sonata gets slight preference among the group is the Irad Ortiz, Jr. rides for the VERY first time although the horse has been trained by Pletcher for his entire career. Ortiz, Jr. rode Cash Equity to a nose defeat in the nearly identical William McKnight Stakes five weeks ago, and the fact he and his agent chose Grand Sonata, plus the fact the horse is the only one dropping in class from grade 1 to grade 2 stakes, suggest he can run back to his Grade 2 Turf Cup win last summer, which also came off a drop from grade 1 to grade 2.
Sugoi won the Grade 3 Louisville Stakes last May at 19 to 1 odds, one race following the $50K claim by Mike Maker. Nearly leading from start to finish in his first try at a marathon distance, Sugoi followed that up with a game runner-up in a similar race, then was overmatched in the Grade 1 Arlington Million, also at the shorter distance of 1 ¼ miles. He finished fifth, and second after that, and when returned to a marathon distance on January 25, the same day as the McKnight and Pegasus, Sugoi won the John B. Connally Stakes after battling head-and-head for the lead for the last half mile. He’s making his second start after two months off and has won 11 of 32, finishing second in eight others, as well as run “A” races back to back to back before, so he’s a strong contender.
Dashman and Cash Equity finished first and second, respectively, when a nose apart in the McKnight five weeks ago on the course. Both ran the best races of their career that day and can run well again, but are moving up in class from grade 3 to grade 2. Dashman has never run at this level but is lightly raced (eight starts) and improving as he’s making his second start off a two month layoff. Cash Equity didn’t run well in his two tries above grade 3 previously, but neither were at a marathon distance. The McKnight was his first try farther than nine furlongs and he proved he can run well at the distance, but it must also be noted he loses Ortiz, Jr. to Grand Sonata (although Zayas is a fine rider) and although second five times in 11 races going back to 1/1/24 he has not won in the past 14 months.
Handicapper Picks
Win: We should start by considering Grand Sonata and Sugoi for win bets, at odds of 5 to 2 or more.
With it possible TWO horses may be above minimum odds, this race presents a great opportunity for “Dutching” the win bets, meaning to prorate the wagers for the best mathematical edge. Amwager has a great “Dutching” tool, where all you have to do is enter the total amount you want to win, select two (or more horses) and all the math is done for you. This is one of many great tools and perks for bettors at Amwager.
NEXT, Dashman and Cash Equity can be considered for win bets at odds of 7 to 2 or more.
Exacta and Trifecta: Box Grand Sonata, Sugoi, Dashman, Cash Equity.
Santa Anita Handicap - Race 10 at Santa Anita - Post Time 7:47 PM Eastern (4:47 Pacific)
Win contenders: Katonah, Express Train
This year’s Big Cap (as the Santa Anita Handicap has been known for decades) drew a field of nine, with TWO trained by Bob Baffert. Those two – Marahmadi and New King¸ are likely to be bet by many in the public, and I think BOTH are suspect (for reasons outlined below), so the race is VERY playable for profit.
If (and that could be a BIG “IF”) the race goes as drawn, It appears that Mirahmadi will be sent to the lead, as BOTH his career wins have been earned leading from start to finish, and in a few of his defeats he’s gone to the front as well. In races where he’s stalked and tried to pass, he couldn’t do it, and his 2-4-2 record in 11 races and the fact his only try further than 1 1/16 miles was a poor sixth place effort. Considering Mirahmadi and New King have the same ownership group, I suspect Mirahmadi is in the race as a “RABBIT” to ensure a good early pace for New King to run into.
However, RABBITS don’t always only help the horse they’re designed to, and in this case Tarantino (on the outside) will also try for the lead from the start, perhaps at ANY COST, because all four of his last races have been run where he’s been on the lead early or within a half-length of the lead. Jockey Maldonado is one of the best gate riders in North America today and he will SEND Tarantino from the moment the gates open. Add J B Strikes Back to the early mix as well, as he’s won three in a row including the Grade 2 Laffit Pincay Stakes on December 26. He has been on the lead or within a half-length of the lead in all three of those races. Then there’s Midnight Mammoth, who led from start to finish in two of three wins last summer, including the Grade 3 Cougar II Stakes. He was beaten 34 lengths combined in his two races so far this year, BUT he went for the lead in BOTH, including the San Pasqual Stakes last month, where he zipped through an opening half-mile and six furlongs in 45.8 and 1:10.6.
The San Pasqual is a perfect example of what I think will happen in this year’s Santa Anita Handicap, because if only TWO of the four “need the lead” types go for the front, we will have the same result where Katonah rallied brilliantly from seventh, to fourth, to win going away, and where Express Train rallied from fourth, to lead, then was out finished by Katonah but held second well as Tarantino tired. Katonah earned the highest last race Equibase Figure in the field, 105, and has run even faster such as when second in the San Diego Handicap last July with a 114 figure. Express Train finished second in this race in 2021 and won it in 2022, BOTH off wins in the San Pasqual, which is a KEY PREP for this race historically, and should be again this year.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Katonah can and should be bet to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more. Express Train should be considered for a win bet at 3 to 1 or more.
As I expect the Baffert pair to be bet heavily, if BOTH horses above are higher than minimum odds, this is absolutely the right opportunity to use the Dutching tool at Amwager for the best mathematical edge.
