Key Races & Bets for Saturday March 22nd, 2025
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Beyond the Wire Stakes - Race 7 at Laurel - Post Time 2:59 PM Eastern
Top win contender: Central Casting
Central Casting just ran the fastest of any of the eight entered in this race, earning a 90 Equibase Speed Figure while dominating by nearly seven lengths in hand. That was her second race since moving to the Ness barn and the #1 jockey for the barn, Rodriguez, who did not ride her in either of her two starts since Ness took over (the other a second place finish) rides for the first time. She’s fast early but doesn’t need the lead to win and even though her last win came in a starter allowance race the effort was stakes quality so she’s the one to beat.
Safe Trust and Onyx Ten finished second and first, respectively, in the Wide Country Stakes last month although neither was favored. Safe Trust won one before that and finished second or third in three straight races before the win so although proven at the level is not the type that may want to win but could if Central Casting doesn’t fire. Onyx Ten goes for her third straight stakes win but before that finished second or third in three straight. She has a good stalking style and could rally late for another win. On the other hand, this pair’s best 82-84 Equibase Speed Figures would need a lot or improvement to beat Central Casting of that one repeats her last effort.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Central Casting can be considered for a win bet at odds of 3 to 2 or more.
Exactas: Central Casting over Safe Trust, Onyx Ten
Box Central Casting, Safe Trust
Box Central Casting, Onyx Ten
Double:
Race 7: Central Casting
Race 8: Superpower, Pay Billy
Private Terms Stakes - Race 8 at Laurel - Post Time 3:27 PM Eastern
Win contenders: Superpower, Pay Billy
Superpower added blinkers for her second career start four weeks ago and ran a big race. He grabbed the lead from the start, relinquished it late, then came back to win and earn a field high 88 Equibase Speed Figure he is very likely to improve upon in his third career start.
Pay Billy ran similarly well in his most recent start, in the Miracle Wood Stakes, as he stalked in second for the first half-mile, moved to the lead over the next quarter mile, fought gamely into the stretch to still lead by a head and lost by a nose on the wire while nearly four lengths ahead of the next horse. He earned the same 88 speed figure in that race as Superpower did (in a maiden race) and won two in a row prior to that so expected top form should continue.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Superpower to win at 9 to 5 or more. Pay Billy at 2 to 1 or more.
Exacta: Box Superpower, Pay Billy
Texas Glitter Stakes - Race 7 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 3:50 PM Eastern
Win contenders: Turbulent Force, Gabaldon, No Evidence
Turbulent Force has run twice and won twice. One was on turf and one was on the all-weather and both were at this five furlong trip. He proved he doesn’t need the early lead to win in the first race when stalking in third for the first quarter mile and appears to have targets here in No Evidence and Gabaldon, both who may go for the lead from the start. He’s been freshened since January 9 and put in a very strong recent workout on the grass so appears to have a solid probability to win his third in a row.
Gabaldon won strongly last May in his career debut at this trip on turf, taking the Royal Palms Juvenile Stakes at first asking with a stakes quality 87 Equibase Speed Figure (compare that to the 88 figure Turbulent Force earned in his most recent race). Then Gabaldon shipped to win in the very important Windsor Castle Stakes, where in a field of 27 he led from the start and was clearly second at the end with a 92 figure. He’s going to come back strongly as a three year old and the outside post is great for a horse with his style. The only question is whether No Evidence may also want the lead and hurt his chances.
No Evidence rallied from fourth to second into the stretch before settling for third in his debut and does not wear blinkers so even though he did lead pretty much from start to finish last month on the return from seven months off, he could settle in nicely and improve off a strong 84 Equibase Speed figure effort in his second race following the layoff.
Handicapper Picks
Win: We will first look at the odds on Turbulent Force and consider a win bet at 2 to 1 or more. Next, we may consider a second win bet, on either Gabaldon or No Evidence as long as one of them is 3 to 1 or more. If both are 3 to 1 or more we can bet the one at the highest odds of the pair.
Exacta: Box Turbulent Force, Gabaldon, No Evidence
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San Luis Rey Stakes - Race 7 at Santa Anita - Post Time 7 PM Eastern
Top win contenders: Megayacht
Other contenders for exacta, double, pick 3 and pick 4 tickets: Easter, Gold Phoenix, Divin Propos, Atitlan
Megayacht was pretty well regarded in at the end of 2021 and start of 2022 when he was a four year old, winning two of three and finishing second in the other, all marathon races of one mile and three eighths or more. He went off form then bounced back in the fall of that year winning then was sent to post well regarded at 3 to 1 in the Grade 3 Valedictory Stakes but ran badly. He must have been injured in that race because he wasn’t seen again until March of last year, when Megayacht finished third in a race he had to have needed after all that time off. Sent to the sidelines once again, he returned on February 2 following 11 months off and won at a mile on turf, no easy task. This now seven year old really prefers longer distances and this mile and one-half hits him right between the eyes. It doesn’t matter to me the last race as a 25K claimer as his ability to get the distance successfully is more important than class in this race in which FEW are successful at these distances. Smith rides back AND the horse put in a strong 58.4 five furlong workout coming into the race. As a seven year old, although lightly raced, his record of 4-2-2 in 13 races is pretty solid and as he’s in winning form he looks very capable of posting the mild upset in this race as he may be overlooked relative to others who have run in stakes races recently.
There’s nothing really wrong with the four other listed contenders, perhaps low odds, and the fact none are standouts. Easter has won seven of 26 BUT has NEVER run this distance and not won since December 2023. Gold Phoenix won the Del Mar Handicap at 11 furlongs last August BUT is 0 for 3 at this distance, not even finishing second or third, and his last win was seven months ago. Divin Propos won at 11 furlongs on turf last August but has had no impact in three similar races since then including one last month. Atitlan has never run the distance but is related to Astronaut, who has won as far as one mile and three-quarters. He won the Twilight Derby last fall (for three year olds only) and may be a price so can be included on exacta tickets with Megayacht.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Megayacht at odds of 2 to 1 or more.
Exactas:
Box Megayacht, Easter
Box Megayacht, Gold Phoenix
Box Megayacht, Divin Propos
Box
Win: Megayacht at odds of 2 to 1 or more.
Exactas:
Box Megayacht, Easter
Box Megayacht, Gold Phoenix
Box Megayacht, Divin Propos
Box Megayacht, Atitlan
, Atitlan
