Key Races & Bets for Saturday March 29th, 2025
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Army Mule Stakes - Race 11 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 4:40 PM Eastern
Win contenders: Playmea Tune, Inveigled, Knightsbridge
Playmea Tune is four for seven in his career, but really four for six as his effort last September around two turns in the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile can be ignored. This will be his third start off the layoff and that last effort was a win from off the pace in a stakes race at the similar distance of six and one-half furlongs. The third horse from that last race came back to win and that bodes well too. Considering he already has the best last race Equibase Speed Figure in the field (105) to improve upon, Playmea Tune is the one to beat.
Inveigled came back from a two-month layoff and in his first start as a four-year-old ran the best race of his career. Lopez was aboard for the first time and the result was a very smart rally from fourth. His stalking style should play well in this field and improving off the 100 figure he earned last month puts him in range of running as fast as Playmea Tune, but perhaps at higher odds.
Knightsbridge won the first two starts of his career by nearly 20 lengths combined, then rested seven months he ran lights out when beaten a length in the Perryville Stakes last fall. He returned as a four year old last month and led late before being passed by Inveigled, who was returning from a shorter layoff. Knightsbridge should improve second off the layoff and may be sent to the front from the start based on his last effort, and that could make him tough to catch like he was in his second career start last March when leading from start to finish at a mile here at Gulfstream.
Handicapper Picks
Win: We will start with Playmea Tune, who can be considered for a win bet at odds of 9 to 5 or more. Inveigled and Knightsbridge can be considered for win bets at 5 to 2 or higher.
If we end up betting two of the three, this is an opportunity to use the “Dutching” tool, free at Amwager, to achieve the best mathematical edge we can by prorating our bets for the best return. All we need to do is select the total we want to wager and then select two horses and all the work is done for us. That’s one of many great tools and perks at Amwager.
Double, Pick 3 and Pick 4
Race 11: Playmea Tune, Inveigled, Knightsbridge
Race 12: Five Towns, Buttercream Babe, Vina Arana
Race 13: Seminole Chief, Major Dude, Axthelm
Race 14: Tappan Street, Madaket Road, Sovereignty
Sand Springs Stakes - Race 12 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 5:15 PM Eastern
Win contenders: Five Towns, Buttercream Babe, Vina Arana
Five Towns is a very consistent sort who has two wins and two second place finishes in her last five races and a 4-3-1 record overall from just 13 starts, including seven in England. She won the similar Dahlia Stakes at this mile turf trip last April, before second and third place efforts in three higher level graded stakes, including when beaten a head in the Grade 3 Noble Damsel Stakes last summer. She’s been rested since and trainer Graham Motion does very well with his turf runners off this kind of layoff. Jockey Ruiz rode Five Towns to both her wins in the states including the stakes and the mare enters the race off a strong pattern of workouts on the grass locally.
Buttercream Babe also makes her first start of the year, last seen finishing a head from second in the higher level Grade 3 Valley View Stakes. She won off her last layoff, in June, at this mile trip, which also happens to have been the last time jockey Saez rode her. Saez rides today and we can expect a big effort off the bench.
Vina Arana ran four times in her native Ireland before coming to the U.S. last spring, and her U.S. debut in August at Saratoga was a big effort where she came home fast from 11th of 12, more than 12 lengths back at one point and seven paths wide on the turn then drawing away late. She was Group 3 placed in her home country and she’s another I’m not concerned about running as well as she did off the layoff last year so she rounds out the top contenders in this event.
Handicapper Picks
Win: We will start with Five Towns, who can be considered for a win bet at odds of 5 to 2 or more. Buttercream Babe and Vina Arana can be considered for win bets at 3 to 1 or higher.
This is another race where I wouldn’t hesitate to bet two of the three contenders above their fair odds, using the dutching tool at Amwager to gets an edge.
Double and Pick 3
Race 12: Five Towns, Buttercream Babe, Vina Arana
Race 13: Seminole Chief, Major Dude, Axthelm
Race 14: Tappan Street, Madaket Road, Sovereignty
Appleton Stakes - Race 13 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 5:57 PM Easter
Win contenders: Seminole Chief, Major Dude, Axthelm
Seminole Chief just ran the best race of his career in his eighth start, the reason being taking blinkers off after five straight races in the equipment. Gaffalione was up for the first time in victory and that, as well as identifying the reason for the big effort, makes it very representative of what he can do today, particularly as he’s making his third straight start in a turf route and continues to improve as a four year old. The 103 Equibase Speed Figure, the second best last race figure in the field by one point, certainly points to another big effort and even though Major Dude ran a bit faster last out and has run even faster this year, the odds on Seminole Chief will be better so he gets slight preference.
Major Dude has few knocks, as he won three of five last year including the Grade 2 Fort Lauderdale Stakes on this course in December with Irad Ortiz, Jr. in the saddle as today. He was overmatched in the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational and rebounded to top form when beaten inches on the wire four weeks ago in the Canadian Turf Stakes, where he earned a 104 figure. He ran one of the best races of his career in the Fort Lauderdale with a 114 figure and has earned $1.1 million to date, so we can expect another big effort. Although he may not be a good win bet at low odds, Major Dude is a must to use on any exacta, double, pick 3 and 4 tickets we play involving this race.
Axthelm may come in under the radar by most bettors, similar to his last two races where he went to post at odds of 17 to 1 and 31 to 1. Those were both five furlong turf sprints and most handicappers won’t notice he has run this distance previously but he has, and well, as he won at a mile early in his career as well as missed by a small margin in the Byran Station Stakes around two turns on grass as a two year old. He won last September in a tough allowance race at Kentucky Downs with a 104 figure and he enters the race with a very strong four furlong workout in :47 flat. Likely to be relaxed and possibly far back in the early stages under Frankie Dettori, Axthelm could be passing many of these in the late stages and has an upset shot.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Seminole Chief and Major Dude should both be considered for win bets at 5 to 2 or higher, but I think only Seminole Chief will rise to that threshold. Axthelm can certainly be considered for a win bet at odds of 5 to 1 or more as well.
Exacta: Box Seminole Chief, Major Dude, Axthelm
Again, if we end up betting two of the three, this is an opportunity to use the “Dutching” tool, free at Amwager, to achieve the best mathematical edge we can by prorating our bets for the best return. All we need to do is select the total we want to wager and then select two horses and all the work is done for us. That’s one of many great tools and perks at Amwager.
Double:
Race 13: Seminole Chief, Major Dude, Axthelm
Race 14: Tappan Street, Madaket Road, Sovereignty
Florida Derby - Race 14 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 6:42 PM Eastern
Win contenders: Tappan Street, Madaket Road, Sovereignty
Analysis and win contenders:
On paper, the fastest two horses in this year’s Florida Derby field are Madaket Road and Sovereignty, who have earned 102 and 98 Equibase Speed Figures, respectively, in their most recent races on the “Road to the Derby.” However, Madaket Road gets an outside post and appears to be a “need the lead” type in a race with at least two other horses drawn inside of him who are likely to keep hm from getting the early lead. Sovereignty should improve off his strong effort in the Fountain of Youth Stakes following a few months off, but unfortunately it was announced this week that his regular jockey, Junior Alvarado, will miss the race due to an injury, leaving the connections scrambling for a replacement when most of the top jockeys in the U.S. are already committed to other horses in this race or in the Arkansas Derby which is being run today at Oaklawn Park. Perhaps more importantly, historically the winner of the Fountain of Youth does not fare nearly as well in the Florida Derby. Among the most recent 10 horses to have run in both races, only one won them both, that being Forte in 2023.
With that in mind, and with first and second place finishes necessary to secure a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate in five weeks, Tappan Street is the most probable winner in my opinion. A lightly raced son of Into Mischief, the sire of Sovereignty as well, Tappan Street won his debut at Gulfstream in a seven-furlong sprint at the end of December, then ran a very good race in the Holy Bull Stakes five weeks later. In the Holy Bull, Tappan Street rallied from sixth to make the lead while wide on the far turn, holding that lead until one-sixteenth of a mile to run, ending up clearly second by a nine-length margin over the third finisher at the end. The winner of that race, Burnham Square, had much more race experience compared to Tappan Street, and it showed, but I expect this horse to improve markedly both physically and mentally off the effort, particularly as he skipped the Fountain of Youth to enter this year’s Florida Derby as a fresh horse. Trainer Brad Cox has several contenders on the Derby trail this year in the form of Final Gambit (winner of last week’s Jeff Ruby Steaks), Flood Zone, John Hancock, Instant Replay and Patch Adams, and Cox has proven to have a knack for having his charges fit and ready in these types of races. Jockey Luis Saez has ridden Tappan Street in both races, and also rides Good Cheer for Cox, the undefeated early favorite for the Kentucky Oaks, as well as rode Angel of Empire for Cox to win the 2023 Risen Star Stakes and Essential Quality to victory in the 2021 Blue Grass Stakes. Although Tappan Street has earned 93 and 89 figures to date which are far short of the 99 and 102 best figures Sovereignty and Madaket Road have earned, respectively, Tappan Street appears to be ready for the best effort of his career and one good enough to post the upset win in this year’s Florida Derby.
Madaket Road is on a pattern of improvement which can’t be denied, going from a 90 figure in his debut last November and steadily increasing how fast he’s run, culminating with a field high last race 102 figure when second last month in the Rebel Stakes. Blinkers come off for this race after three races with the equipment, perhaps allowing Madaket Road to relax a bit in the early stages as opposed to when zipping through the opening half mile in :45.6 seconds in the Rebel Stakes before tiring to finish second. On the other hand, with it appearing Neoequos (on the rail), Disruptor (stretching out to two turns) and Jimmy’s Dailys might also want the lead, it will be necessary for jockey Tyler Gaffalione to put Madaket Road in a stalking position early while not going too wide on the first turn from his outside post. In his maiden win in a sprint last December, Madaket Road stalked in fourth position early before rallying to win so it is possible with the equipment change those tactics could be successful in the Florida Derby.
Sovereignty currently has 60 points on the “Road to the Derby” so may not need to win to secure his spot in the Kentucky Derby, particularly compared to Madaket Road (31 points), Tappan Street (10 points) and others. Earning a career best 99 figure when winning the Street Sense Stakes to close out his two year old campaign, Sovereignty earned a 98 figure winning the Fountain of Youth Stakes last month which should be improved upon in his second start at the age of three. His outside post does not compromise his chances given he has been ninth and sixth in the early stages of his two most recent races, both wins, so one question is whether Sovereignty will be asked for everything he has in the late stages of the race if needed, if he is already in a position to add to his points total and ensure he can enter the Kentucky Derby in five weeks, compared to other horses which will be off the Derby trail if they don’t finish in the top three in this race. He certainly has the talent to win this race and it would be no surprise if he did so.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Tappan Street at odds of 3 to 1 or more.
Exactas:
Box Tappan Street and Madaket Road
Box Tappan Street and Sovereignty
