Key Races & Bets for Saturday May 6th, 2023

Elusive Quality Stakes – Race 8 at Belmont – Post Time 4:19 PM Eastern

Contenders:
Anaconda just missed by a nose in the similar non-graded Dangers Hour Stakes on the Aqueduct turf around two turns and should really appreciate the slightly shorter seven furlong trip. His other two best recent races, a win last September at seven furlongs and a big runner up in the Turf Sprint Championship last November, seem to foretell he’s going to run as well or better than he did just a few weeks ago.

Voodoo Zip has more second place finishes (7) in his career than wins (4), all on turf, BUT one of his best races ever came at Belmont at this seven furlong trip. Like Anaconda, Voodoo Zip ran well in a stakes race, the tougher grade 3 Belmont Turf Sprint, last October, and he may have needed his last race on 4/13 when third following nearly five months off so could improve enough to be very competitive here, particularly as his comeback race Equibase Speed Figure was 104 and that compares favorably with the 105 figure Anaconda earned in his last race just a couple of days later.

Surprise Boss is the horse the aforementioned two have to run down to win as he’s had the lead after a quarter mile has been run in six of his last 12 races. The best of those came at this seven furlong trip on turf, at Belmont, last June, when second in the N.Y Stallion Stakes, and he’s in good recent form because he returned off a five month rest in March to win albeit on dirt.

Handicapper Picks

Win: We’ll start with Anaconda, who we can bet at odds of 9 to 5 or more. We should insist on a bit more return for the risk on the other two so fair odds on Voodoo Zip and on Surprise Boss are 3 to 1.

When betting two horses at greater than minimum odds/fair odds there is a big opportunity to get an edge by using a dutching tool, which prorates wagers for the best value. There’s a free dutching tool at Amwager.com, where you can set the amount you want to bet or the amount you want to win, and the math is done for you to help achieve the best edge. This is just one of many tools, and perks, for bettors at Amwager.com

Exactas: Box Anaconda, Voodoo Zip, Surprise Boss

For the doubles and pick 3’s we should try to capitalize on our top picks winning by playing some tickets with only those horses so we may win the bet multiple times if we are correct.

Doubles: (three bets)
Race 8: Anaconda, Voodoo Zip, Surprise Boss
Race 9: Ottoman Fleet, City Man, Keystone Field

Race 8: Anaconda
Race 9: Ottoman Fleet, City Man, Keystone Field

Race 8: Anaconda, Voodoo Zip, Surprise Boss
Race 9: Ottoman Fleet

Pick 3: (three tickets)
Race 8: Anaconda, Voodoo Zip, Surprise Boss
Race 9: Ottoman Fleet, City Man, Keystone Field
Race 10: Idiomatic

Race 8: Anaconda
Race 9: Ottoman Fleet, City Man, Keystone Field
Race 10: Idiomatic

Race 8: Anaconda, Voodoo Zip, Surprise Boss
Race 9: Ottoman Fleet
Race 10: Idiomatic

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Fort Marcy Stakes – Race 9 at Belmont – Post Time 4:56 PM Eastern

Contenders:
Charles Appleby, the trainer for Godolphin in Europe, is nearly sensational when he brings horses over to run in North America. Over the last three years, from 19 horses Appleby has run in North America, he has won nearly half (nine) while finishing second another seven times and third only twice. That’s 16 of 19 first or second and Ottoman Fleet should add to those numbers. The gelding has only finished worse than third in one race in his 10 race career and he won his most recent race just 18 days ago in England, at this nine furlong turf trip, easily winning by a couple of lengths in a group 3 stakes. European group 3 races are the equivalent of North American Grade 2 races to Ottoman Fleet fits perfectly in this grade 2 stakes. He also finished third twice in group 2 stakes earlier this year and was third behind Nations Pride in a group 3 stakes. Nations Pride won the Grade Saratoga Derby and Grade 1 Belmont Derby last year for Appleby so if Ottoman Fleet repeats any of his four efforts this year it is possibly the rest of the field are running for second.

Keystone Field is no slouch, having won seven of 25 races for a half-million in earnings. Three of those wins were on turf but he hasn’t run on the grass except once in the past two years. That’s why he may be ignored in the wagering by many bettors but that will be their mistake, as he’s trained by Mike Maker, who wins a lot of turf stakes around the country. Keystone Field finished second to Law Professor (entered for dirt only) in the Excelsior Stakes last time out and that effort stacks up very well here if repeated, even though it was on dirt, because we know the horse can handle the grass.

City Man won the nearly identical Grade 2 Fort Lauderdale Stakes last December, then was over his head in the Pegasus World Cup Invitational Turf. The win in the Fort Lauderdale came off a two month layoff and even though the layoff he’s coming back from today is a bit longer at three months there’s no concerns because trainer Clement is just fine at bringing his horses back from time off in fine form.

Handicapper Picks

Win: Ottoman Fleet has a much higher probability to win than the other two, so his minimum odds for making a win bet are 6 to 5. He could be lower odds than that near post time and that’s why the multiple double and pick 3 tickets started in the previous race and all using him are a way to profit if he wins. Keystone Field can be bet to win at 3 to 1 and City Man can be bet to win at 7 to 2 or more.

This is another superb race to use the dutching tool which is free and easy to use at Amwager.com.

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Ruffian Stakes – Race 10 at Belmont – Post Time 5:37 PM Eastern

Contender:
Idiomatic appears to be a standout here in my opinion but since Kathleen O has gone to post at odds of even money, four to five and two to five in her last three races, finishing second in all three, she may be the favorite and Idiomatic the second or third betting choice. While Kathleen O has earned 90 and 99 Equibase figures in her two starts this year, Idiomatic has earned 97 and 111 figures in two of her last three. The 111 figure effort came in her most recent race on March 25 when winning the Latonia Stakes at the slightly longer distance of a mile and one-sixteenth, in a field of nine. Meanwhile Kathleen O finished second in a field of five. Although Idiomatic has earned all four career wins (in six races) on all-weather, I have no concerns about her running as well on conventional dirt, because she’s been in training on dirt at Churchill Downs since April and her most recent workout was a very strong 47.6 half mile which was the second fastest of 58 on the day. She’s also trained by Brad Cox, who is having another career year and winning 27% of his races in 2023, to go along with 26% of his stakes races this year and last.

Handicapper Picks

Win: Idiomatic can be bet to win at even money and may be a low odds overlay at anything over 6 to 5. Hopefully we’re live to all our pick 3 tickets started in race eight as well.

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Kentucky Derby – Race 12 at Churchill Downs – Post Time 6:57 PM Eastern

Top contenders in preference order:
1. Angel of Empire
2. Tapit Trice
3. Forte
4. Derma Sotogake
5. Kingsbarns
6. Skinner

Angel of Empire ticks all the boxes to be a win contender in this year’s Kentucky Derby. In the first race of his career back in August 2022, Angel of Empire showed a lot of talent by winning at the distance of one mile on dirt and around two-turns, which is no easy task as horses normally need to work up to a race of a mile or more with a shorter one-turn race first. After a totally irrelevant race where he tried running on grass, Angel of Empire returned to the dirt and dominated by six lengths over the runner-up. Next tried in a stakes race for the first time this past January, Angel of Empire finished second, once more at a mile. When asked to run a mile and one-eighth for the first time in February in the important Risen Star Stakes in Louisiana, Angel of Empire showed a big burst of speed when making up four lengths with a quarter mile to run, also going from seventh to third while racing wide on the far turn, then was drawing off at the end to win by a length. Bettering that once more in the $1 million Arkansas Derby on April 1, Angel of Empire once again showed a tremendous response when asked to quicken his stride as he went from sixth with a quarter mile to run, three lengths behind the leader, to first within an eighth of a mile, then drew off by four lengths. That fast acceleration on the turn occurred while the colt was racing four paths wide as well. Throughout his three year old campaign, Angel of Empire has run faster, as evidenced by Equibase Speed Figures (which normalize for things we can’t see) of 80, then 92, then 96, then 106, the latter which is the highest (fastest) last race figure in the field. A quick burst of speed like the one this colt possesses is often the key to Kentucky Derby success as it allows a horse to move by many horses in a short time on the far turn, at the same time many are hitting the wall. Getting in front in the stretch in the Derby with that kind of acceleration can make it difficult for other horses to pass in the late stages and that could be the key to Angel of Empire succeeding in the 149th Kentucky Derby. Angel of Empire is trained by Brad Cox, who also trains Hit Show, Jace’s Road and Verifying. Cox trained Mandaloun and Essential Quality, who finished second and fourth, respectively, in the 2021 Derby.

Tapit Trice lost the very first race of his career back in November and is undefeated in four races since then. Like Angel of Empire, Tapit Trice has improved in his last few races, going from a 96 speed figure in February, to 98, then to 103 in his most recent race. That recent win came in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland just 75 miles from Churchill Downs, and in that race Tapit Trice showed a lot of mental toughness as he had to battle head-and-head with Verifying for the length of the stretch. At one point during that battle Verifying was in front by a head but Tapit Trice refused to yield and prevailed. Although that effort didn’t show the quick acceleration Angel of Empire displayed in the Arkansas Derby, Tapit Trice did demonstrate a big burst of speed one race before last in March when winning the Tampa Bay Derby, in which he moved from eighth to first in the final eighth of a mile. Just like Angel of Empire, Tapit Trice is on a pattern of improvement which suggests he can peak in this race and that makes him a formidable contender. Tapit Trice is trained by Todd Pletcher, who won the 2010 Derby with Super Saver and the 2017 Derby with Always Dreaming. Pletcher also saddles two other contenders in Forte and Kingsbarns.

Forte will likely enter the gate for the 149th Kentucky Derby as the betting favorite and for good reason as he has won six of seven career races including five in a row. He scored a 100 on every test starting with the Hopeful Stakes last summer, then the Breeders’ Futurity and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last fall. Given three months off to grow up physically, Forte returned in March as if he had never been away from the races, cruising to a four length win in the Fountain of Youth Stakes in March before winning the Florida Derby in April. The 102 speed figure Forte earned last October in the Futurity, followed by a 105 figure in the Breeders’ Cup, were exceptional for a two year old, so it was a bit of a surprise when he returned with a 106 figure effort in the Fountain of Youth. It was not a surprise, and of no real concern, when Forte earned a 104 figure in the Florida Derby because Historically horses can run just a tad slower in their last prep before the Kentucky Derby and still win, as occurred with Derby winners I’ll Have Another, California Chrome and eventual Triple Crown winner Justify. Similar to the late kick Tapit Trice demonstrated in the Tampa Bay Derby, Forte put in a big kick in the stretch of the Florida Derby when going from fifth to win by a length in the final eighth of a mile. Although I am ranking Forte slightly below Angel of Empire and Tapit Trice on my list of win contenders, this is only due to the tremendous talent and strength among this year’s Derby field.

Derma Sotogake is one of two likely Derby entrants who were born and raised in Japan. He is a grandson of 1989 Kentucky Derby winner Sunday Silence, who was sold to Japanese interests in 1991 and who has become one of the dominant sires in that country. Now he’s a grandsire and his genes continue to create great horses. Derma Sotogake won a very important race in Japan last November at the distance of one mile and one eighth, on the same week Forte won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at one mile and one sixteenth. Derma Sotogake ended his two year old season by beating 13 other horses then took three months off to mature. Shipped to Saudi Arabia, Derma Sotogake finished third of 13 in the $15 million Saudi Derby then one month later when sent to Dubai the colt decimated a field of 13 in the United Arab Emirates Derby. In that race Derma Sotogake established the lead from the start and after taking on some challengers early drew off to win by five lengths while geared down in the final stages. Although he led from the start in that race, Derma Sotogake put in a very strong late kick to win his final start of 2022 so it appears no matter the pace scenario in the Derby this colt could be a big threat to win.

Kingsbarns, yet another Todd Pletcher trainee, is one of the most lightly raced horses in the field, having run just three times. He’s undefeated to date and it must be noted that among 34 horses to enter the gate in the Kentucky Derby undefeated, nine exited the gate in the same fashion. That warrants tremendous respect, as does the fact Kingsbarns won the first two races of his career while sitting in third or fourth position early, while in his most recent victory in the Louisiana Derby, he led from start to finish and didn’t give any of the other 11 competitors a chance in the stretch while coasting to an easy win. Even though the time was slower than average, the fact is that Kingsbarns actually ran faster in the last eighth of a mile than many of the other entrants in this year’s Derby and that’s notable. Having improved from an 84 figure in his debut to 100 figures in his last two races, and being as lightly raced as he is, there is a lot of upside for Kingsbarns to take a big leap forward and to post a mild upset to win this year’s Derby.

Skinner rounds out the group of six that I feel have the best chance to win, but he appears less probable than any of the previous five mentioned. However, his high odds will make up for that, so don’t hesitate to bet him given the return potential for the risk. Unlike the previous five contenders I talked about, Skinner hasn’t won any of the fall or spring prep races for the Derby, and he was not scheduled to ship from trainer John Shirreffs home base in California unless one more of the main 20 horse likely to run withdrew from consideration, which happened earlier this week. Shirreffs saddled Giacomo to a $102 payoff winning the 2005 Derby. Giacomo had finished fourth in the Santa Anita Derby prior to the upset win and similarly Skinner finished third in the 2023 Santa Anita Derby in his most recent race. Although he has just one win to his credit in six lifetime races, only the three this year are notable, and in those races he’s run faster and faster, from a 94 speed figure in February (following four months off), to 103, then to 104. So although the third place finish isn’t as good as the wins the top five contenders all have coming into this race, the 104 figure compares favorably with the 100 to 106 figures as those other horses. Skinner is a son of Curlin, who finished third in the 2007 Derby, and whose son Good Magic finished second in the 2018 Derby. With the breeding to run the Derby distance of a mile and one-quarter and with a bit of a pattern similar to the trainer’s huge upset in the 2005 Derby, Skinner is an interesting longshot we may want to bet so we are not found kicking ourselves after the race has been run.

If we were to go a bit deeper in terms of contenders, I would consider Mage, Hit Show and Verifying. Also note that Mandarin Hero (#22) has a very slim chance of running if two horses among the top 20 withdraw. Last year’s winner Rich Strike was in this position and ran because a horse withdrew one day before the race.

Handicapper Picks

Betting suggestions: The Kentucky Derby is a race on which to remove the rubber band from your bankroll to some extent. With a big field there will be more than a few horses with odds of 20 to 1 or more which is normally not the case in smaller fields. Therefore there are a number of strategies with which we will try to cash a winning bet or two.

First, win bets, or win & place, or win, place & show bets can be considered on two, possibly three of the top contenders.

For the exacta and trifecta I’ll make it simple, and box the six contenders:

Angel of Empire, Tapit Trice, Forte, Derma Sotogake, Kingsbarns, Skinner

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Ellis Starr

Ellis is a well respected handicapper and contributor of AmWager. He has been a public handicapper for more than twenty years, educating racing fans of all skill levels with detailed commentary few other handicappers provide.

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