Key Races & Bets for Saturday November 16th, 2024
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Race 2 at Aqueduct - Post Time 12:10 PM Eastern
Win Contenders: Swinging Solo, Key Point
Swinging Solo won rather easily in his one and only race five weeks ago. Although it was at Delaware Park, the effort earned a strong 88 Equibase Speed Figure which is going to be improved upon off the physical and mental experience of a race. In that debut, Swinging Solo stalked the pacesetter early then took the lead and never looked back and since then he shipped to New York and put in a spectacular half-mile drill about a week ago which was the third best of 177 on the day (47.4), sending all the right signals for another top effort at this first allowance level.
Key Point will likely go favored because he’s trained by Brad Cox and because he had won three of six prior to finishing seventh under these conditions but at seven furlongs last time out in September. He had returned from 23 months off to win on August 1 at this six furlong trip, against NY Breds before the poor effort and it was the worst race of his career. Considering how well he ran before that, if he rebounds to that kind of form he could be tough to beat, depending on how much Swinging Solo improves in his second career start.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Swinging Solo at 2 to 1 odds or higher.
Exactas: Box Swinging Solo & Key Point
Doubles:
Race 2: Swinging Solo, Key Point
Race 3: Man in Finance, Shoot It True
Notebook Stakes - Race 3 Aqueduct- Post Time 12:40 PM Eastern
Win Contenders: Shoot It True, Man in Finance
Shoot It True ships in from Kentucky for Wesley Ward, who also addles Phoebeinwonderland but Shoot It True appears to be the more talented of the two. She debuted in April at Keeneland and won easily by nearly eight lengths, earning a 97 Equibase Speed Figure which is not only stakes quality but by far the highest (fastest) in this field. Entered in the Kentucky Juvenile Stakes the next month, Shoot It True sizzled the opening quarter in 21.8 on the lead and still led into the stretch by two lengths but tired late and ended up fourth. Rested seven months since then, she returns with blinkers off to help her relax and is the ONLY horse in the field facing NY Breds for the first time. Dettori gets on and if the filly gets to the lead in the first few strides as expected, she can successfully play “come catch me” and win as easily as she did first time out. Both Shoot It True and Phoebeinwonderland are fillies facing boys but that’s not a concern in the two year old ranks, as well as putting fillies in against males has been a Ward staple for years.
Man in Finance can win if Shoot It True can’t lead from start to finish. He showed a lot of maturity stalking in second for the opening half-mile in his debut in September before moving to the lead and winning by about the same margin as Shoot It True did in her maiden win. The 92 Equibase figure is the second best in the field and can be improved upon off the experience of a race and so he’s a strong contender as well.
Handicapper Picks
Win: We should consider win bets on Shoot It True at 8 to 5 or more and on Man In Finance at 2 to 1 or more.
When betting more than one horse to win, an edge can be obtained by prorating your bets to obtain the same profit. This is called “Dutching” and there’s an easy to use “Dutching” tool at Amwager where you set the total amount you want to bet and all the math is done for you.
Central Park Stakes - Race 9 at Aqueduct - Post Time 3:40 PM Eastern
Top win contenders: Early Adopter, Super Swift
For exacta tickets: Jack and Jim, Davy Crockett, Rock d’Oro (also-eligible)
Early Adopter showed a ton of talent in his debut at the end of August at Saratoga, winning a two-turn grass race with a lot of maturity. In that race he relaxed in third for the first six furlongs, was fourth with a quarter mile to run, then surged in the final eighth to make up more than two lengths, getting up just in time by a neck on the wire. Stepped up in class significantly for the Grade 2 Pilgrim Stakes one month later, Early Adopter was about to make the same move as he was three-quarters of a length from the lead with an eighth of a mile to run but was cut off badly by a horse swerving in front of him, losing all chance. Red hot Flavien Prat gets on for the first time, for the Brown barn, and the race had a number of talented horses in it as the winner and runner-up ran in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (although the didn’t do well) and the fifth horse came right back to win. Early Adopter was third and Smooth Breeze (also in this field) was fourth and that suggests more reasons Early Adopter can win with a trouble free trip.
Super Swift also ran well in a stakes in his most recent start following a winning debut. That effort came in the Atlantic Beach Stakes 15 days ago. That was his first try on turf and while the winner got an easy lead early and led all the way, Atlantic Beach rallied for second and improved markedly off his debut to earn an 86 Equibase Speed Figure, actually one point more than the 85 which Early Adopter earned in the Pilgrim. John Velazquez gets on for the first time and on the stretch out to two turns and in his third career start we can expect Super Swift to run even better and have a big say in the outcome.
Davy Crockett and Jack and Jim both won around two-turns on this inner turf course last time out to break their maidens, with decent 86 and 81 figures they can improve upon. Their only knocks are they don’t have the stakes experience of the top two. Rock d’Oro makes his U.S. debut for a superb trainer in Ralph Beckett, who saddled Starlust to win the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint two weeks ago at 33 to 1 odds. The colt ran second twice in England and appears to have some talent, as well as may be ignored by bettors if he gets in from the also-eligible list.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Early Adopter and Super Swift should both be considered for win bets at odds of 2 to 1 or higher.
Using a dutching tool like the one which is free and easy to use at Amwager, we can get a nice mathematical edge when we wager on two horses in a race like we may be doing here.
Exactas:
Early Adopter and Super Swift over Early Adopter, Super Swift, Davy Crockett, Jack and Jim and Rock d’Oro
Early Adopter, Super Swift, Davy Crockett, Jack and Jim and Rock d’Oro over Early Adopter and Super Swift
Doubles:
Race 9: Early Adopter, Super Swift
Race 10: Blue Eyed Scout, Miss Tiramisu, Spool, Storm Charger, Trulli Magic
Race 9: Early Adopter, Super Swift, Davy Crockett, Jack and Jim and Rock d’Oro
Race 10: Blue Eyed Scout
Race 10 at Aqueduct - Post Time 4:10 PM Eastern
Win contenders: Blue Eyed Scout, Miss Tiramisu, Spool, Storm Charger, Trulli Magic
Blue Eyed Scout has experience the other contenders lack, and good experience at that as she led from the start and held second strongly in a field of 12 last time out on September 20, in her second career start, first at Aqueduct. Irad Ortiz, Jr. gets on and she’s the likely favorite and obviously so among those which have run.
That being said, there are FOUR first timers who have potential to run well, some perhaps at high odds. Miss Tiramisu comes from the very strong Duarte barn, winning at a high 24% clip on the year. BOTH of the dam’s foals won first time out and red hot Dylan Davis rides.
Spool is the fifth foal of her dam, with two of the previous four having won first time out, perhaps the reason why this NY Bred cost $125,000 at auction. She’s in the barn of another top trainer in Graham Motion and Franco rides, more signs she’s live in her debut.
Storm Charger is a NY Bred who has been training in Pennsylvania for a competent trainer in Synnefias. One of here siblings on the dam’s side won first out so she could have something to show here and is likely the horse among the group to go to post at the highest odds so we want to consider her for at least a minimum win bet so as not to be kicking ourselves if she wins at high odds.
Trulli Magic sees Prat riding for Weaver on a daughter of new sire Fog of War, who is 1 for 1 in NY Bred maiden races to date with is progeny. Some of her works suggest talent and Weaver wins his share of these types of races so she rounds out a quintet to consider in the nightcap.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Blue Eyed Scout can both be considered for win bets at odds of 2 to 1 or higher. As it may be likely she may be below those odds that is why we hopefully will be live to two double tickets started in race 9.
As to the others, I would consider betting whichever two of the four are around 4 to 1 or higher near post time.
Using a dutching tool like the one which is free and easy to use at Amwager, we can get a nice mathematical edge when we wager on two horses in a race like we may be doing here.
