Key Races & Bets for Saturday November 23rd, 2024
Brought to you by Amwager.com, a great legal online wagering website with great betting tools and perks, legal for residents of most states and covering most tracks in North America as well as many in the rest of the world.
New York Stallion Series Stakes (Fillies & Mares) - Race 7 at Aqueduct - Post Time 3:08 PM Eastern
Win Contenders: Athena Beach, Brown Suga Babe
Athena Beach has won six of 12 races and has been second in two others. Her record in races at a mile or less is even better at 6-2-1 in 11 races. Although her first try in a stakes race for NY Breds only (last month) was the worse effort of her career, as she finished fifth, the issue that day was she drew the rail and was sent hard for the lead before tiring. One race before that when she got the five post she led from the start and even though passed after a half mile came back to win. That’s the race we can expect her to run here and that race, if repeated, is good enough to win.
Brown Suga Babe also has six career wins, but in 20 starts compared to 12 for Athena Beach. Brown Suga Babe has never raced in a stakes for NY Breds but her last two one-turn races at Aqueduct, in NY Bred allowance company, were very strong. Both under Silvera, who rides here, the filly stalked in third after a half mile and won easily. As such, she’s the only other horse in the field with a very strong probability of succeeding.
The others in this field all have knocks, with Sunday Girl and My Shea D Lady both having races in their past which may make them competitive if repeated, but not good enough to beat either of the top two contenders.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Both Athena Beach and Brown Suga Babe should be strongly considered for win bets at 2 to 1 odds or higher.
Exactas: Athena Beach and Brown Suga Babe over Athena Beach, Brown Suga Babe, Sunday Girl and My Shea D Lady
Box Athena Beach and Brown Suga Babe
Doubles:
Race 7: Athena Beach, Brown Suga Babe
Race 8: Light Man, Doc Sullivan, Antonio of Venice
Race 7: Athena Beach, Brown Suga Babe
Race 8: Light Man
Dave’s Friend Stakes - Race 7 at Laurel - Post Time 3:31 PM Eastern
Win Contenders: Dean Delivers, Witty
Dean Delivers has won four of seven this year, four in a row to be exact between May and September, all following the trainer change to Allard. Although third in his most recent race, Dean Delivers can rebound to winning form as he’s dropping from the Grade 3 Vosburgh Stakes (where he was third) back to non-graded stakes, which was the level of all four of his recent wins. One of those came here at Laurel in the De Francis and it is very notable that Rodriguez was up for his last five races, and chooses him to ride over No Cents and Witty, both who the jockey rode to victories in their most recent races.
Witty gets an able replacement for Rodriguez in Toledo, who has been up for four of the horse’s last five wins. Of note was the win last December, at Laurel, at this distance, in which Witty made a visually impressive move from sixth, seven lengths back, to the front, then drew off easily. He won a Stakes on turf in April after four months off, also under Toledo, then finished second in three straight before two much poorer efforts (all on turf). Back on dirt three weeks ago, Witty rebounded in a big way with one of the best efforts in his career and he gets a strong early pace to run into so at the least should be second, if not first, adding to his exceptional record of 19 for 27 first or second to date in his career.
Handicapper Picks
Win: We should consider win bets on Dean Delivers and Witty at odds of 3 to 2 or higher, both likely to be low odds overlays at that threshold.
Doubles:
Race 7: Dean Delivers, Witty
Race 8: Armando R
Race 7: Dean Delivers, Witty
Race 8: Armando R, Excellorator, Magic Michael
New York Stallion Series Stakes (open division) - Race 8 at Aqueduct - Post Time 3:38 PM Eastern
Top win contenders: Light Man, Doc Sullivan, Antonio of Venice
Light Man gets preference among a trio that can win based on his strong record of five wins in eight races and that he’s never finished worse than third in the other three. His best effort yet came in his most recent race on October 27 at Aqueduct when winning the very similar Hudson Stakes. He added blinkers for that race after a pair of third place finishes and that helped him to focus and win, rallying from fifth in the early stages and moving past three horses on the turn and the final challenger late. Carmouche has been aboard for the last three wins and rides back, which are more reasons to expect this horse to start a new winning streak like the one he put forth winning three in a row from February through July.
Doc Sullivan has finished first or second in eight of 10 races, with four of each placing. He was completely overmatched when last seen in the Pennsylvania Derby so he’s really eight for nine in my opinion. He won the identical Mike Lee Stakes at Saratoga in June with Castellano up, who rides today, and he wasn’t disgraced in a pair of two turn races after that when second. The return to one turn will certainly help his chances to return to winning form.
Antonio of Venice beat Doc Sullivan the only time they met previously, back in April. Doc Sullivan has improved since then and Antonio of Venice has been on the sidelines since that race. His workouts for the comeback have been sensational and he’s ready to fire, so he must absolutely be used on double and similar multi-race tickets played. As a win bet he is unlikely to offer the return compared to either of the other two because he’s routinely even money or less at post time.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Light Man should both be considered for win bets at odds of 2 to 1 or higher. Doc Sullivan and Antonio of Venice can be considered for a second win bet at 5 to 2 or more.
Exactas:
Light Man over Doc Sullivan and Antonio of Venice
Box Light Man, Doc Sullivan, Antonio of Venice
Richard W. Small Stakes - Race 8 at Laurel - Post Time 4:02 PM Eastern
Top win contender: Armando R
Other win contenders: Excellorator, Magic Michael
Armando R may have finished a poor seventh behind Excellorator in his most recent race last month, at 7 to 2, but the return to two-turns off that one turn mile race is a strong reason to believe he can run the tables on his nemesis today. He did just that one before last in September, rallying from 17 lengths back to win by almost six in a visually impressive performance. That was his second win in a row, the other also around two turns at Laurel, and Armando R should have no problem with this nine furlong trip, where he’s two-for-four, including winning this race in 2022.
Excellorator is going for his third straight win and third in four races since the Ness claim in July. He had been away for 14 months prior to that and finished fourth in the comeback but has been nearly flawless since, except when beaten by nearly six lengths by Armando R in September. Excellorator also has won at this nine furlong trip, here at Laurel, and in his current form will give it everything he has.
Magic Michael finished fast but too late in a stakes at a mile last month at Parx, missing by three necks on the wire. That was on the cut back from a mile and one-half and so now moving up to a mile and one-eighth, where he won in May, Magic Michael has a decent shot to get into the top two, which he’s now done in 25 of 43 career races on dirt.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Armando R should be considered for a win bets at odds of 9 to 5 or higher.
I might consider a second win bet on either Excellorator or on Magic Michael, whichever is 3 to 1 or more and the higher odds of the pair.
Exacta: Armando R over Excellorator and Magic Michael
Box Armando R, Excellorator, Magic Michael
