Opportunities Elsewhere
Churchill Downs is not the only racetrack running on Saturday and sometimes when many eyes are focused elsewhere one can find opportunities. I’ll try and do that.
At Belmont at Aqueduct which is Aqueduct Green Up caught my eye as a horse who could give heavily favored Randomized all she can handle. Green Up had a recent race at Santa Anita against a fast filly in Sweet Azteca and Adare Manor came out of the same race and romped in the Apple Blossom at Oaklawn Park. Green Up is one for one at the Big A and should find herself in a nice stalking spot. Randomized got very good last year but off the bench she could be giving Green Up the recency edge.
In the Fort Marcy the Godolphin runner will be another very short priced favorite. Obviously, he will have to be reckoned with in here. There does not seem to be an abundance of speed in here and although Exact Estimate is moving up to the stakes ranks, he could find himself setting the pace or at the least getting the jump on most or all of these. That could be enough to get him to the wire first for one of the best barns around.
The Charles Whittingham out at Santa Anita was somewhat of a puzzle to me. I liked Balladeer last time out as the lone speed but was not thrilled with his race. Gold Phoenix looks like he needed his last and can certainly move forward second off the bench and on the stretch-out. I wound up landing on War at Sea. This horse looks to me like he will sit a great trip in here under Mike Smith. He will go farther than he ever has but that doesn’t really concern me. He looks to still have some room for improvement, and I think he makes his share of noise in here.
All the best and have a fun and profitable weekend.
On Friday at Aqueduct, they will run the Westchester. Messier ran huge only to be disqualified last out. I won’t comment on the merits of that DQ. It is what it is. As for the Westchester I see messier as a big threat to come right back and run another big one. The cut back to a mile should help if anything.