The Florida Derby 2024
Eleven three-year-olds are
scheduled to go in the Grade 1 mile and an eighth Florida Derby. The race is
not only an important 100-point Derby prep but the staple of the Gulfstream
Park Championship meet. It is only fitting South Florida winter based
two-year-old champion Fierceness is the headliner. He should go off a well back
significant favorite in the wagering, but he is far from a cinch in my view.
Hades who also returns in this spot beat him on the square last out in the Holy
Bull. We’ll go through the field and see how things shake out.
Frankie’s Empire breaks from
the rail off a decent showing in the Fountain of Youth. That race was decimated
by scratches, and it probably looks better on paper than it actually was. No
thank you for me.
Hades is three for three with
a nice win in the Holy Bull where he turned back Fierceness on the square. He
set a slow pace that day and I must believe they will be going harder and
faster on Saturday likely with more pressure. He will have to prove it to me.
Bail Us Out ran just okay in
his lone dirt start before breaking his maiden over the Tapeta. It is Pletcher
and Irad for Repole so you can’t be shocked if he has more to offer but I will
have to see it to believe it.
Grand Mo the First is
improving and I think he gets the right sort of trip in here. He is well bred,
comes off the Tampa strip that gets horses fit and I view him as a serious
player with a real chance. The 15-1 morning line only makes him more attractive
should it hold. Jaramillo could be sitting on a live one to win the biggest
race of his career to date.
Real Macho should sit a good
trip the way I see it but he looks a cut below a few in here to me.
Le Dom Bro appears to like
this track and is another who should sit a good trip if you like him. I don’t
believe he is good enough to win here.
Catalytic is interesting
coming out of two sprints. Leparoux rides and he is not a rider who likes to
gun, and I feel that would be this colt’s best chance. He is intriguing out of
the sprints and stretching out and Saffie can be deadly, but I will have to say
prove it to him also.
Seminole Chief managed to
land Joel Rosario, but he looks like he will need more than that to get home
first here.
Conquest Warrior looks very
good to me. He will get the pace he needs to rally into, he likes the track at
two for two, he has handled less than ideal trips already and has won at this
distance. If he can run as good off Lasix as he has been running on it, I think
he will be tough to beat. I think he will take money right into Fierceness and
end up the second choice. I’ll land here.
Fierceness is obviously
capable on his best. There are questions however and more than a few. I am not
sure I want an odds-on horse with questions. He has not been consistent and has
failed when faced with any adversity. The problem is it appears he will get a
dream stalk and pounce trip like what he got in the Breeders’ Cup. That said
has he progressed at three, can he win a fight, can he get past the speed and
hold off Shug’s horse late? We’ll find out and even if he wins, he will be hard
for me to trust going forward as things look perfect for him Saturday. I’ll
gamble Conquest Warrior can run him down.
Iris’s Dream would be a big
surprise.
Those are my thoughts on this
renewal of the Florida Derby. Enjoy the races!
