The Holy Bull 2024
The Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park on Saturday features the return of two-year-old champion Fierceness who is also the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner. He has been working very good for his three-year-old debut at Palm Beach Downs and is obviously the most likely and even probable Holy Bull winner despite the moderate layoff.
More interesting that if he wins is how he wins, how he looks and whether he has progressed from two to three. A good two-year-old is not always a good three-year-old and I like to see progression and a faster more developed and focused racehorse. We’ll find out if Fierceness fits that bill Saturday afternoon.
Things can get tricky to decipher when a horse like Fierceness wins but doesn’t go forward. That happens often enough and can fool people into thinking they have a sure thing next out or a major contender going forward and that just might not be the case. You have to watch the race, competition, trip, time and a good speed figure barometer like Thoro-Graph to get a true barometer.
We hope you read our last column and watched our Past the Wire TV Pegasus coverage as we crushed it for the most part.
Let’s see how the Holy Bull shakes out and if there is anyone in there who might be able to give Fierceness a tussle.
Hades is on the rail off two sprint wins from two starts. He has won on the lead and from off the pace. You have to think he will be close to the lead or on it under Paco breaking from the rail off two sprints. He is bred to go long, looks like he has ability but has a very tall order in front of him.
Inveigled has Irad up so he will get his share of attention. I question if he wants two turns and he didn’t have the best trip last out. He is steady but will have to improve quite a bit to win.
Otello is probably the second most likely winner. He is two for two both at a one turn mile. He looks all distance and showed some grit winning The Mucho Macho Man splitting horses late and showing determination. He will have to have that same kick and more around two turns. Clement on the Derby trail is interesting in and of itself.
Dancing Groom adds blinkers in his first start at three. They will have to really move him up to have any shot at the win.
No More Time is lightly raced and nicely bred, but this good he will have to prove.
Domestic Product was dusted by Dornooch and stablemate Sierra Leone. Chad doesn’t back off but takes the blinkers off instead. I don’t see it, but it is Chad not backing off following a subpar race, always a dangerous angle.
Fierceness will be a very short price and probably justifies it with the win. As I said earlier it is more how he does it than if he does it. If he doesn’t get it done that is a whole new set of questions to answer.
Sea Streak is honest and looks close to the field in here barring the favorite. The problem is the post and his style. Neither is conducive to a good trip in here so Luca will have to work some magic for him to have any chance.
Fierceness should handle these if he is where he was at two and has not progressed. If he has then he should win comfortably. He will be odds on so nothing to see here from a betting standpoint. Sometimes it is all about knowing just how vulnerable he may or may not be at a short price going forward.
