The Sam F. Davis Stakes 2024

The Kentucky Derby trail continues with a stop at Tampa Bay Downs on Saturday. Let’s get right to it and look at the field and see what we come up with in the way of contenders and pretenders.


El Principito looks like he will or may flash some speed from the rail but that is about it. He looks a cut below and not up to this task.


Tireless went on Lasix to break his maiden over this track last out but comes off it here moving into this Grade 3 Stake. He is improving and comes from a powerhouse barn, but three or four look better than him in here to me.


Patriot Spirit has speed, comes from an under the radar barn that is good sprint to route, and may wind up clearing this field. If he does, he might get brave and is dangerous at what should be a nice price.


Crazy Mason went on Lasix to get an allowance win over this track last out but comes off it here against tougher. He is a pass for me.


No More Time made a middle move off a freshening last out in the Mucho Macho Man. I tend to shy away, but he is eligible and would not be a surprise. Paco comes in to ride as a vote of confidence.


Agate Road has yet to run a bad race and looks like the class here. He gets pace to run at, handles the dirt, and I think he is most likely running best down the lane. I’d like him more if this was a mile and an eighth as opposed to a mile and a sixteenth, but he has the bottom to him.


Copper Tax was on a bit of a roll last year but tailed off. I’ll have to see him prove it was no fluke.

Everdoit has some speed but carrying it this far with company near the front end is a tall order.


Change of Command took a bit to come around after bringing just north of a cool million at the Keeneland sale. He puts blinkers on off two wins for Shug. He seems to like it near the front but doesn’t necessarily need the lead to win. He must be viewed as a contender in my book.


West Saratoga was good enough to win The Iroquois last year. His race back over this track did not impress and while he may go forward, I think there are better and more likely candidates in here.


Agate Road handled Fulmineo twice already, albeit both times on grass, but I don’t see that changing today or here.


Elysian Meadows could have stayed in New York where he is two for two against New York breds. Mott brought him here off the two sprint wins and stretches him out in a Derby prep race. That is a big vote of confidence from a big race trainer. He will have to take that sprint form a route of ground and the draw did him no favors, but Junior knows how to work out a trip. Another who’d be no surprise but will need some luck to break his way.


I think Agate Road will produce a late run here that should be good enough to get home. 7-2 on the morning line seems fair if we can get it but we’ll see where the money goes.


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Jon Stettin

Since childhood, Jon has always had a deep love and respect for the Sport of Kings. His years of experience have earned him a well respected spot in the industry as a handicapper. He now is a frequent contributor to AmWager as well as writing for his own site.

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