It All Comes Together; Looking in the Crystal Ball

It is interesting to look back at some of our opinions on races and horses from a few weeks or months back and see how they aged. You get a real good window into your focus and grasp of this challenging game we play. This is a good time of year to do it as we are approaching the fourth quarter so to speak and if we don’t have a clear picture now something is wrong.

A few weeks ago, I wrote right here Shancelot was a bet against in his next start after the monster win first time at the Spa. He lost at a short price. A week or two before that I wrote right here Code of Honor was most likely to be the one to assert himself into the top three-year-old of 2019 picture. I think he accomplished that with his Travers win. We pretty much called that one. If you play this game long enough you get a feel for certain things. Let’s examine some things ahead and see how they age.

As the horses of 2019 race towards their championships, and we have some really good horses this year in Bricks and Mortar, Sistercharlie, McKinzie, Mitole and more, we can get ready to capitalize on the upsets, and get down on the strong plays. That is what it is all about.

The Pennsylvania Derby should give us a very clear leader for the top three-year-old. It looks like Maximum Security, the current leader will face War of Will for sure. Mucho Gusto and Improbable are possible. Code of Honor may sneak in as may Tacitus. If that happens you have the three-year-old championship on the line as I do not think any of them are good enough to go to Santa Anita and beat older horses. Well at least one in particular. The spoiler to that whole party may be Omaha Beach who is working his way back to the races and hopefully the picture. We may see Omaha Beach at Parx, but not in the Pennsylvania Derby. Don’t be surprised if Mandella opts for the two-turn mile race instead.

It is true we do not know what type of surface we will see at Santa Anita this fall, but it will be McKinzie’s home track whatever it is. He is blossoming at just the right time.

Mitole is back, and the loss from the rail is totally forgivable at this point. It will take something very fast to handle him at his best. It probably isn’t Imperial Hint away from Saratoga.

Bricks and Mortar has put together some season. He has been on a tear. There is some European horse out there that just may have him in their or should I say her sights. The Breeders’ Cup Turf may be the race of that weekend.

If Elate couldn’t beat Midnight Bisou on the square when she was supposed to at Saratoga, how will she at Santa Anita where Bisou is familiar?

Sistercharlie probably still has not run her peak race of the year of yet. That should be pretty discouraging for any of the horses looking to take her down in the filly and mare turf. Good luck with that one.

Moving on to another subject, when will they run out of ways to disrespect bettors and make this already difficult game more difficult? Never. The deck is stacked against us. Now it is definitely wrong and bad to move a race from one turf course to another with 8 minutes or thereabouts to post time. It crushes the multi-race wager players in pick 4’s, 5’s, and 6’s. This day involved a mandatory jackpot payout as well. Ouch. It would have been worse if they changed surfaces altogether as the race would become an all. But even the course change can affect the race. Personally, I do not believe it did in this case. Quarbaan, the best horse that day won, and decisively. That said it still leaves a bad taste and with no explanation it is disrespectful. For safety we can all understand it, but we deserve to know not guess. Unfortunately, this discretion lies with the stewards and track management. There is no argument. They have the right to switch surfaces with little or no notice. We agree to play by those rules.

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Jon Stettin

Since childhood, Jon has always had a deep love and respect for the Sport of Kings. His years of experience have earned him a well respected spot in the industry as a handicapper. He now is a frequent contributor to AmWager as well as writing for his own site.

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