Kentucky Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, September 12, 2020

Kentucky Downs Ladies Turf – Race 7 at Kentucky Downs – Post Time 4:27 PM Eastern

English Affair posted the 14/1 upset in the Kentucky Downs Preview Ladies Turf Stakes last month at Ellis Park and I think she will prove that big win was no fluke. Bejarano rode her for the first time and brilliantly and she’s come back to work big since then. She won the Grade 3 Cardinal Stakes as a four year old in 2018 and is ow back in that kind of form and the 114 Equibase Figure she earned last month is BETTER than any other horse in the field, including those who are also stakes winners.

Regal Glory has to be used on exacta, double and pick 3 tickets but is tough to consider for a win bet as she opens at 9/5. She won five of her first seven and finished second in the other, through last August, before a poor sixth place finish and eight months off. Returning as a four year old, the filly ran okay when second to stablemate Newspaperofrecord in the Intercontinental Stakes in June then didn’t fire a bit in the much tougher Grade 1 Just a Game Stakes at the end of June. Maybe coming back on three weeks rest was a bad idea so she’s had two months off now. The Just a Game turned out productive as the runner-up ran fifth then won the Churchill Downs Distaff Turf Mile last weekend, with Just a Game winner Newspaperofrecord finishing second in that same race. Therefore Regal Glory can win but there are a few others who can win as well so she’s no standout.

Mitchell Road, Tapit Today and Secret Message are mostly contenders for second and third on exacta and trifecta tickets but I’ll use them on a pick 3 and double ticket as well. Their best races could be competitive here but I think they’re a cut below the top two, particularly English Affair if that filly repeats her last effort.


Win: English Affair at odds of 3 to 1 or higher.


English Affair over Mitchell Road, Tapit Today, Regal Glory and Secret Message.

Mitchell Road, Tapit Today, Regal Glory and Secret Message over English Affair.


Race 7: English Affair, Regal Glory

Race 8: Change of Control, Cariba, Into Mystic, Got Stormy, Kimari

Race 7: English Affair, Regal Glory, Mitchell Road, Tapit Today and Secret Message

Race 8: Change of Control, Cariba, Into Mystic, Got Stormy, Kimari

Pick 3:

Race 7: English Affair, Regal Glory, Mitchell Road, Tapit Today and Secret Message

Race 8: Change of Control, Cariba, Into Mystic, Got Stormy, Kimari

Race 9: County Final, Outadore, Fauci

Kentucky Downs Ladies Sprint Stakes – Race 8 at Kentucky Downs – Post Time 4:59 PM Eastern

Cariba has run four big races in a row since racing on turf for the first time in March. The most recent of those was her best and it came when winning the Caress Stakes at Saratoga last month in a 10 horse field. Irad Ortiz, Jr. was up for the first time and rides back and the race the filly won has turned out to be a KEY RACE from which the third, fourth AND fifth finishers all came back from to win, one of those wins coming in the One Dreamer Stakes on 9/7 at Kentucky Downs. Making her third start off a layoff and off a career-best 106 figure which should be improved upon, Cariba looks like a KEY bet opening at 8/1.

Into Mystic ran huge last month as well, off the trainer change to Walsh, taking the Kentucky Downs Preview Ladies Sprint with a 108 figure effort. That turned out to be a KEY race as well as the runner-up won the Unbridled Sydney Stakes last week at Churchill Downs and the fifth horse won back while the third and fourth have yet to run. She’s won four of her last five and in top form so must be respected.

Kimari scratched out of the Prioress Stakes on dirt last week at Saratoga to run here. She’s done little wrong in five turf starts and Ward wins a lot of races at Kentucky Downs, so with this filly working spectacularly well for this race and a proven stakes winner in turf sprints, she is yet another who adds depth to this field.

Change of Control may be a bit overmatched on paper but she opens at 15/1 and has the figures to run at this level based on her back to back wins in turf sprints in May and June. She was third in the Unbridled Sydney, but that was taken off the turf and run on dirt so back on turf this gal could have run a lot better than her high odds suggest as those two turf sprints earned 112 and 108 figures competitive with horses at much lower odds in this field.

Got Stormy rounds out a quintet that rises above the rest here , particularly on the cut back from a route to a sprint in a race with at least three need-the-lead types (Quebec, Jakarta, Surrender Now and possibly I’llhandalthecash). She’s not known as a sprinter but she is a grade one stakes winner on turf and in decent form following a runner-up effort against males in the Fourstardave Handicap last month at Saratoga. However, as win bet she’s a hard pass opening at 2/1.


Win: I will ABSOLUTELY BET BOTH Cariba and Into Mystic at odds of 5 to 2 or more.

I would consider a smaller win bet on Change of Control at 6 to 1 or more because I wouldn’t want to miss her if she wins and pays $30.

When making multiple win bets, use a “Dutching” tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. A Dutching tool lets you set the amount you want to bet or the amount you want to win, then based on the odds your bets are proportioned accordingly. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.


Box Cariba, Change of Control, Into Mystic, Kimari and Got Stormy.


Box Cariba, Change of Control, Into Mystic, Kimari and Got Stormy.


Race 8: Change of Control, Cariba, Into Mystic, Got Stormy, Kimari

Race 9: County Final, Outadore, Fauci

Kentucky Downs Juvenile Turf Sprint Stakes – Race 9 at Kentucky Downs – Post Time 5:32 PM Eastern

County Final, Outadore and Fauci stick out quite a bit against the other seven in this race but of the three the only one offering value for a win bet is County Final, who opens at 9/2. This well bred colt won in his debut in June in a turf sprint, easily drawing off by four lengths in a field of 10. Moving to dirt for the Bashford Manor Stakes in June, he wasn’t disgraced when second then entered in the Tyro Stakes after moving to the Asmussen barn, he stayed in the race even though it was taken off the turf. Winning that race easily then flattered when the third horse came back to win, County Final is a quality colt with upside and a bit underbet relative to the other two contenders but has every right to win his second stakes in a row and make us a some profit on our win bets.

Outadore broke his maiden at first asking at the end of July at Saratoga in a turf sprint, showing a good amount of maturity to win from off the pace. The 87 figure was solid but County Final earned an 84 figure and both have upside. Fauci finished second in his debut on dirt then won nicely on turf, before a runner-up finish in the Skidmore Stakes last month at Saratoga on turf. Those efforts earned 89 and 90 figures, tops in the field, but not much better than either of the other two. He’s certainly a contender but no standout.

Note also this race has a trio of need-the-lead types in Petit Verdot, Bodenheimer and Cowan. All three of the contenders above could take up stalking positions behind the speed, but there’s also a chance any of them could get caught up in the hot pace and be vulnerable late. The one of those three most likely to be unable to rate appears to be Fauci so he’s the one I’m using the most reluctantly on double and pick 3 tickets from the previous races.


Win: County Final at 2 to 1 or more.

Exacta: Box County Final and Outadore. Box County Final and Fauci.

Trifecta: Box County Final, Outadore and Fauci.

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Ellis Starr

Ellis is a well respected handicapper and contributor of AmWager. He has been a public handicapper for more than twenty years, educating racing fans of all skill levels with detailed commentary few other handicappers provide.

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