Key Horse Races & Expert Handicapper Bets – August 21, 2021
Torrey Pines Stakes – Race 6 at Del Mar – Post Time 7:30 PM Eastern
Forest Caraway opens as the 5/2 second choice on the morning line and has a much larger probability to win in my opinion than 9/5 morning line favorite Private Mission, who is likely going to continue to be favored because her trainer is Bob Baffert. The problem is Private Mission led from start to finish when winning a sprint in June so may be committed to the lead from the outside at a mile, but Day Plan also led from start to finish in a sprint in her most recent start, as did Lady Mystify, who gets the rail off a wire-to-wire win at a mile. It’s just not possible for all three fillies to battle and hang on with two pretty good closers in the field, Forest Caraway being the one with the best last race Equibase figure (104) in the field by far and highly likely to improve on it in her second start following nine and one-half months off. Additionally, Forest Caraway is bred to be a good one, as two of her sisters were both multiple dirt route stakes winners, having combined for $1.1 million in earnings. She rallied from fifth in her comeback sprint three weeks ago and will likely be last early in this field before rallying strongly to win.
Lisette (2) is another to consider and makes a nice horse for the exacta as she opens at 6 to 1. She returned from five months off in June in a sprint and ran fourth while never threatening but turned in a big effort stretching out to a mile 16 days ago, rallying from second to win going away under Rispoli, who rides back. That mile experience and mature off the pace style could serve her very well in this race where many have not learned to relax early.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Forest Caraway to win at 3 to 2 or more, a true low odds overlay win bet.
Exacta: Box Forest Caraway and Lisette. Then also Forest Caraway over Lisette.
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Race 9 at Del Mar (Del Mar Oaks) – Post Time 9:03 PM Eastern
Although my selections and analysis for the Del Mar Oaks is on another blog, which you can get via my twitter account @ubercapper, here are my pick 3 plays starting in this race and covering the next two in the sequence which detailed analysis for follows on this Key Races & Bets blog:
Handicapper Picks
Race 9: Javanica, Closing Remarks, Going Global, Madone, Fluffy Socks, Soaring Sky
Race 10: Dr Post
Race 11: United, Arklow, Say the Word
Race 9: Javanica, Closing Remarks, Going Global, Madone, Fluffy Socks, Soaring Sky
Race 10: Tripoli, Tizamagician, Dr Post, Royal Ship, Express Train, Cupid’s Claws
Race 11: United
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Pacific Classic – Race 10 at Del Mar – Post Time 9:33 PM Eastern
Most of the nine entrants in this year’s Pacific Classic have been taking turns beating each other:
Express Train beat Tripoli and Royal Ship in the San Diego Handicap last month but Royal Ship finished in front of Express Train seven weeks earlier when second in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita. Express Train beat Tizamagician in the San Pasqual Stakes this past January, then one day after the San Diego Handicap, Tizamagician beat Cupid’s Claws in the Cougar II Stakes. However, Cupid’s Claws had beaten Tizamagician when winning the Tokyo City Stakes last summer. When winning the Californian Stakes in April, Royal Ship beat Independence Hall and Express Train finished in front of Independence Hall when second in the Malibu Stakes last December. Sheriff Brown was far back in the San Diego, as was Magic On Tap, who also we well beaten by Royal Ship in the Californian.
With all that turn-taking to consider, the race is ready to be won by a new face. That new face is Dr Post, with a career-best and field high last race 108 Equibase figure. That figure is likely to be improved upon as this will be Dr Post’s second start since adding blinkers as well as his second with Joel Rosario in the saddle. Dr Post made his third start following an eight month layoff in the Monmouth Cup Stakes last month, run on the same day as the San Diego and won more easily than the one and one-quarter length margin of victory makes it appear as he was “ridden out” in the final stages. Given that his first two races this year were at the distance of a mile around one turn, the stretch out to a mile and one-eighth around two turns in the Monmouth Cup sets the stage for an even better effort in the Pacific Classic.
Express Train is the next most probable winner of this year’s Pacific Classic, but unlike Dr Post (who has never run this mile and one-quarter trip), Express Train is winless in two tries at the distance. His best effort of the two tries came when beaten a half-length in the Santa Anita Handicap in March, in which he led by two lengths with an eighth of a mile to go and was caught near the wire. It’s just unclear whether he can run his best at this distance, but coming off a big win in the San Diego Handicap last month with a 107 figure, and having run so well in the Santa Anita Handicap, Express Train has every right to win this race, particularly as he may have the early lead all to himself from the start.
There’s no doubt Royal Ship, Tripoli, Tizamagician and Cupid’s Claws have some chance to win, but each as one negative factor in my opinion which makes that must more improbable than the top two win contenders. Royal Ship earned a 113 figure winning the Californian in April and finished in front of Express Train by a head in the Gold Cup (111 figure) but disappointed badly in the San Diego when a non-threatening third as the betting favorite with no excuse. Tripoli earned a 109 figure one before last in an allowance race and nearly duplicated the effort when second to Express Train in the San Diego Handicap but his six pound difference is not in effect here as they are at even weight and there’s no indication he wants to run this far, having never run farther than one mile and one-sixteenth on dirt. Tizamagician (career-best 106 winning figure) and Cupid’s Claws (career-best 100 figure) both sport graded stakes wins at a mile and one-half, but that doesn’t mean they can run this well at the classic distance of one mile and one-quarter.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Dr Post at odds of 9 to 5 or higher
Express Train to win at odds of 2 to 1 or higher
Considering Dr Post opens at 4 to 1 and Express Train opens at 3 to 1, both above the minimums for win bets above, This is race where a DUTCHING tool does us a lot of good and helps us to make a profit. A Dutching tool, like the one which is free to use at Amwager.com, saves us doing the math to determine the right wagering amounts.
Exactas: Dr Post and Express Train over Dr Post, Express Train, Tripoli, Tizamagician, Royal Ship, Cupid’s Claws
(Optionally you can play the bet as a Trifecta as well by using the same six horses in third as well as second)
Doubles:
Race 10: Tripoli, Tizamagician, Dr Post, Royal Ship, Express Train, Cupid’s Claws
Race 11: United
Race 10: Dr Post
Race 11: United, Arklow, Say the Word, Masteroffoxhounds, Acclimate, Award Winner
Race 10: Dr Post
Race 11: United, Arklow, Say the Word
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Del Mar Handicap – Race 11 at Del Mar – Post Time 10:03 PM Eastern
United, the 6/5 morning line favorite, should win as he’s in top form off a win in the Eddie Read Stakes last month over the course and missed by a head in this race last year. The horse that beat him last year, Red King, isn’t in form as he’s finished no better than third in six since. It’s possible Acclimate, who won the race in 2019, may take the lead as he likes to lead from the start and control the pace, but it’s also as likely Award Winner, who has led from start to finish, or almost to the finish, in four of his last five races, might not let Acclimate get an easy lead. Depending on the early fractions, both could be around late for a piece, and potentially win so that’s why they are included on one of the double tickets from race 10. However, United has so many races in the past year which win this if repeated it’s hard to try to beat him, such as the John Henry Turf Classic last September, the San Luis Rey Stakes this past March or his Eddie Read effort, all under Prat, who rides here, and the 125 pound impost is no big deal nor is no lasix as he’s won two of three without it.
Arklow is tough as nails when he runs his “A” race, and as United has, Arklow has nine career wins. His only start at Del Mar came last fall in the Hollywood Turf Cup, which United was not in, and Arklow won gamely with a 108 figure then bettered it to 118 winning the Louisville Stakes this past May off a six month layoff. If you’re wondering about his last race, it’s irrelevant as he clipped heels and stumbled early and never had a chance as the jockey just rode him around the track.
The value in the race, if there is any, is with Say the Word, who was beaten narrowly by United when second in the San Luis Rey and narrowly by Arklow when third in the Hollywood Turf Cup. He won the 12 furlong Elkhorn Stakes in April at Keeneland with a 117 figure as good as either of the two horses above and Say the Word opens at 6 to 1.
As a price play for exactas and trifectas we should consider Masteroffoxhounds. He was third behind United and Say the Word in the San Luis Rey, just one and three-quarter lengths back, and he won the San Marcos in February, beating Acclimate who had lead easily from the start.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Honestly, the pick 3 and double tickets started earlier are the best way to profit if United wins, and likely even if Arklow wins, as their 2/1 and 5/2 starting odds will not hold up and they will go to post at odds too low for win bets.
Say the Word can be bet to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more.
Exactas:
United over Arklow and Say the Word
United over Arklow, Say the Word and Masteroffoxhounds
United and Arklow over United, Arklow, Say the Word and Masteroffoxhounds
United, Arklow and Say the Word over United, Arklow, Say the Word and Masteroffoxhounds
Trifecta:
United and Arklow over United, Arklow, Say the Word and Masteroffoxhounds over United, Arklow, Say the Word, Masteroffoxhounds, Acclimate, Award Winner and Red King
