Key Horse Races & Expert Handicapper Bets - August 7, 2021
Glens Falls Stakes – Race 7 at Saratoga – Post Time 3:58 PM Eastern
Luck Money, Call Me Love, War Like Goddess and Dalika are the win contenders. Temple City Terror should be considered for exacta and trifecta tickets.
Luck Money just finished second, beaten a length, in a nearly identical stakes race run at a marathon distance. Fifth early and 13 lengths behind the leader, Luck Money surged to second, only a length back with an eighth of a mile to go but could not go by Dalika, who had pressed then led on a sensationally slow early pace over a turf course labeled soft. Nevertheless, Luck Money improved nicely in her second start following six months off, going from a 92 Equibase figure in the comeback to 102. Not only is she on a pattern to improve nicely third off the layoff, the ONLY horse in the field on an improving pattern, but she is reunited with Javier Castellano, who last rode her to victory in an identical 12 furlong stakes race this past October when she earned a 104 figure good enough to win. Best of all, she opens at 8 to 1.
Call Me Love just won the identical River Memories Stakes at 12 furlongs on turf, from the two post after stalking the speed and under Junior Alvarado, who rides again. She was second, beaten a neck, over the course, in the 2020 Grade 2 Ballston Spa Stakes so she’s got some class as well as has won nearly half of her 16 career starts, all on turf. Like Luck Money, Call Me Love opens at 8 to 1 and offers exceptional value in this race in which the second morning line favorite (My Sister Nat) is highly vulnerable, and in which the 8 to 5 morning line favorite War Like Goddess is no standout.
Dalika won the Robert G. Dick Memorial Stakes last month and led from the start and was beaten by less than a length by Temple City Terror in the Keertana Stakes before that. We know she’s going to be out in front early in a race with no other horse which likes to lead early and that gives her a shot to win for the eighth time in her 23rd career start, BUT like the other six (excluding the much slower Orglandes), her best efforts have earned 104 to 106 figures no better than any of the others. War Like Goddess won the Bewitch Stakes at the distance when last seen in April with a brilliant late kick, her second stakes win in a row. Leparoux rides her back and she doesn’t need a fast pace to win but she’s another whose best effort, ever, earned a 102 Equibase figure which is just on par with most of the rest here and so she is no standout as her low odds make it appear.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: ABSOLUTELY bet both Luck Money and Call Me Love at 3 to 1 or more.
In that case, we should use a “Dutching” tool to do the work of allocating our wagering dollars for the best edge. A Dutching tool lets us set the amount you want to bet or the amount we want to win, then based on the odds our bets are proportioned accordingly. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.
Exactas:
Luck Money, Call Me Love, Dalika and War Like Goddess over Luck Money, Call Me Love, Dalika, War Like Goddess and Temple City Terror
Luck Money over Call Me Love, Temple City Terror, War Like Goddess and Dalika
Call Me Love, Temple City Terror, War Like Goddess and Dalika over Luck Money
Doubles:
Race 7: Luck Money, Call Me Love, Dalika and War Like Goddess
Race 8: Bella Sofia, Souper Sensational, Zaajel
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Test Stakes – Race 8 at Saratoga – Post Time 4:34 PM Eastern
Bella Sofia, Souper Sensational and Zaajel are the three contenders to win.
This year’s Grade 1 Test Stakes is a very interesting, and VERY playable race. The favorite is Search Results, winner of the G1 Acorn Stakes in June and nearly undefeated in five races, her only defeat coming by a neck in the Kentucky Oaks. Another low odds horse is Always Carina, winner of two in a row but defeated (second) behind Zaajel in the Grade 2 Mother Goose Stakes in June. The first thing I noticed, and found odd, is although Zaajel beat Always Carina in the Mother Goose, Zaajel opens at 8 to 1 odds while Always Carina opens at 3 to 1. Some of that has to do with the fact Always Carina is trained by Chad Brown and was the 4 to 5 favorite in the Mother Goose, but other than that I don’t get it because Zaajel legitimately won the race. Search Results is another Brown trainee, but this field is SO EVENLY MATCHED it’s ridiculous and so no horse seems to deserve heavy favoritism, with EVERY horse except one having earned 104 to 106 figures in one of their two most recent races.
The EXCEPTION to the fact seven of eight have run identically fast to one another is Bella Sofia, who has run faster than ANY of the rest. After dominating by 11 lengths in her May debut, Bella Sofia led early and settled for second in the Jersey Girl Stakes, gamely so when holding off the third horse by a neck after leading early. In her start after that, four weeks ago, Bella Sofia took on older fillies and mares in allowance company and won under wraps by six lengths. The 112 Equibase figure is nearly a half-second faster than any other entrant in the race, and this will be only the fourth start of her career. Leading jockey Saez rides and from the outside post, even though she has speed, Bella Sofia doesn’t need the lead, having proven that when second after a quarter mile in both races won. Another big plus is top trainer Rudy Rodriguez has a very strong record of 14 for 51 (27%) in stakes which are dirt sprints with a horse which won its most recent start. This shows Rodriguez can keep a horse in top form and that 27% rate is as good as Chad Brown and only slightly lower than Bob Baffert (32%), except in this race Baffert’s Illumination comes into the race off a maiden win while the rest have run in allowance or stakes. As such, Bella Sofia is my top pick and would be a gift of a win bet at anywhere near her 6 to 1 starting odds.
Souper Sensational also opens at 6 to 1, even though she just won the Victory Ride Stakes at Belmont easily with a career-best 104 figure. She rallied from fifth in that race and as she’s making her second start following two and one-half months she should run even better.
Zaajel was 18 to 1 when winning the Mother Goose and there are reasons she should have been those high odds, and reasons she should have been lower odds. She was a badly beaten seventh and sixth in her two starts before that, BUT both were routes, one on turf. She was UNDEFEATED in two sprints prior to that, and the fact Rosario chose to ride for Pletcher should have had bettors taking notice, but they didn’t. The 106 figure was legitimate and with Rosario staying aboard, as I mentioned earlier, it’s pretty silly she opens at 8 to 1 compared to 3 to 1 for Always Carina, the horse she beat in the Mother Goose who had no excuse.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Absolutely bet Bella Sofia and Souper Sensational to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more.
This is another race where a DUTCHING tool does us a lot of good and helps us to make a profit. A Dutching tool, like the one which is free to use at Amwager.com, saves us doing the math to determine the right wagering amounts.
Exactas: Box Bella Sofia, Souper Sensational and Zaajel
NOTE: For my analysis of the Whitney Stakes, Race 10, go to the Race of the Week page here at Equibase.com. My top contender is By My Standards, with Knicks Go the other horse with the bulk of the probability to win.
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Yellow Ribbon Handicap – Race 10 at Del Mar – Post Time 9:30 PM Eastern / 6:30 PM Pacific
Bodhicitta and Maxim Rate are the win contenders. Charmaine’s Mia, Dogtag and Laura’s Light are also contenders, mostly for exacta and trifecta wagers.
Bodhicitta won the 2020 Yellow Ribbon at odds of 9 to 2 in a field of seven and did so with a lot of gusto when stalking third from the start and battling down to the wire to win by nose. She ran poorly nearly four months later in the Matriarch but not badly at all six months later on May 31 when third, beaten a half-length for the runner-up spot and a length for the win, in the nearly identical Gamely Stakes. McCarthy was up for the first time in that race so may be much more familiar with her here and form the rail she can stalk whoever has the lead early and run as she did last year. Notably last year Bodhicitta finished second in the Gamely, beaten a length, before winning the Yellow Ribbon and her third place effort in this year’s Gamely was NO DIFFERENT so she may over a ton of value opening at 6 to 1.
Maxim Rate won this year’s Gamely and as noted earlier Bodhicitta won the 2020 Yellow Ribbon after finishing second in the Gamely and after taking time off just like she is doing this year, and just like Maxim Rate is doing. Hernandez rode Maxim Rate for the first time in the Gamely and gave her a beautiful ride when stalking in fourth of seven early before bursting to the lead late. She was already a winner at this Grade 2 level, having won the Goldikova Stakes last October, and she won two races at Del Mar last summer so should run big once more in this situation. The only reason she’s not the top pick is she opens at 3 to 1 compared to 6 to 1 for Bodhicitta.
Charmaine’s Mia, Dogtag and Laura’s Light all fit with these but appear just a bit less probable than the top two. Nevertheless in a race with no heavy favorite expected, they can be used on exacta and trifecta tickets.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Bet Bodhicitta and Maxim Rate to win at odds of 5 to 2 or more.
This is another race where a DUTCHING tool does us a lot of good and helps us to make a profit. A Dutching tool, like the one which is free to use at Amwager.com, saves us doing the math to determine the right wagering amounts.
Exactas: Bodhicitta and Maxim Rate over Bodhicitta, Maxim Rate, Charmaine’s Mia, Dogtag and Laura’s Light
Bodhicitta, Maxim Rate, Charmaine’s Mia, Dogtag and Laura’s Light over Bodhicitta and Maxim Rate
