Key Races & Bets for SaturdayJuly 17, 2021
Osunitas Stakes – Race 9 at Del Mar – Post Time 9 PM Eastern / 6 PM Pacific
Tapwater, Nasty and Sedamar are the win contenders. Brooke should be used in second and third on exacta and trifecta tickets played.
Tapwater might have won the Grade 3 Santa Barbara Stakes when last seen in May if not for nearly falling on her face when the gate opened. She moved up quickly, perhaps too quickly, to the lead and led for one mile and three eighths but the race was a mile and one half and she tired late to settle for third. Cutting back to a mile and coming back off a two month layoff, having won at a mile in February off a four month layoff, Tapwater has a big shot to run well enough to win this restricted stakes.
Nasty is Tapwater’s stablemate as she shares the same owner but has a different trainer (Baltas compared to Mandella for Tapwater), one year younger than the five year old. She returned from five months off in the Grade 2 Monrovia Stakes last month but that was a sprint and she’s NOT a sprinter so I suspect that was a prep for this. She won the Lady Shamrock Stakes at a mile right before the layoff and her best effort, one which if repeated gives her a BIG shot to post the mild upset at 5 to 1 starting odds, came when she led late and was beaten a half-length for the win in the Grade 3 Autumn Miss Stakes at this mile trip last fall. As such, and with a sharp half-mile workout recently, she has a strong shot as she’s reunited with jockey Ricky Gonzalez, who was up for the Lady Shamrock win.
Sedamar has earned three of her four career wins on the Del Mar turf and she’s been first or second in eight of 14 career races at this mile turf trip. Two of her losses in the past year were as good as wins, particularly when beaten three-quarters of a length by multiple stakes winner Mucho Unusual in the Grade 3 Megahertz Stakes in January. She was overmatched in the Grade 2 Royal Heroine after that but on the drop in class to non-graded company Sedamar has every right to bounce back to very competitive form.
Handicapper Picks
Win bet: Tapwater to win at odds of 9 to 5 or more.
A second win bet is warranted on the one of these two at the highest odds near post time: Nasty or Sedamar at 5 to 2 odds.
When making multiple win bets, use a “Dutching” tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. A Dutching tool lets you set the amount you want to bet or the amount you want to win, then based on the odds your bets are proportioned accordingly. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.
Exacta:
Sedamar, Nasty and Tapwater over Sedamar, Nasty, Tapwater and Brooke
Trifecta:
Sedamar, Nasty and Tapwater over Sedamar, Nasty, Tapwater and Brooke over Sedamar, Nasty, Tapwater and Brooke
Doubles:
Race 9: Sedamar, Nasty, Tapwater
Race 10: Royal Ship, Mo Mosa, Tripoli
Pick 3:
Race 9: Sedamar, Nasty, Tapwater
Race 10: Royal Ship, Mo Mosa, Tripoli
Race 11: Jimmy Blue Jeans, Wyfire, Mohawk King, Lincoln Hawk, The Hulk
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San Diego Handicap – Race 10 at Del Mar – Post Time 9:30 PM Eastern / 6:30 PM Pacific
Tripoli, Mo Mosa and favorite Royal Ship are the three contenders to win and to complete the exacta.
Tripoli absolutely FITS at this grade 2 stakes level based on his last effort, a career-best and his second win in a row. MORE importantly, it was his first ever try on dirt after 11 races on grass. Trainer Sadler is likely regretting not trying the horse on dirt sooner, as it was a very strong effort in which he stalked in fourth and third early, took the lead by a head with an eighth of a mile to go and not only battled head-and-head the rest of the way but was pulling away late. The 109 Equibase Speed figure puts him right there with 111 figure Royal Ship (9 to 5 starting odds) earned in the Gold Cup and the 112 figure Mo Mosa earned in the Steve Sexton Mile. Pereira rides back and the colt has excellent tactical speed in a field in which there’s no real need-the-lead type, suggesting the early pace may be average. That gives Pereira the right to take the race to them by getting the lead from the start, and in that case if Tripoli can run as gamely in the last eighth of a mile as he did last out he can post the upset.
Mo Mosa also opens at odds way too high to pass up for a win bet, 6/1, based on two “A” races, both stakes wins, in a row. These came at Fonner (in Arkansas) and Lone Star but the speed figures normalize for all tracks and with the last being a 112 figure this colt fits on all counts. Jockey Ramon Vasquez, who rarely if ever rides on the California circuit, rides back after being up for the colt’s three and one-half length win over multiple graded stakes winner C Z Rocket, and in his current form Mo Mosa may win his second graded stakes in a row.
Royal Ship only has one knock and that’s his low starting odds, so he’s not nearly as good a win bet as the other two. Nevertheless he must be respected after winning the Californian Stakes in April and missing by a head in the Gold Cup last month, four lengths clear of third place finisher Express Train. His first four U.S. starts weren’t much BUT three were on turf, and similar to Tripoli trying dirt for the first time and winning last month, Royal Ship has found a home on dirt now and must be respected as a win contender.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Tripoli and Mo Mosa at 3 to 1 or more.
This is another race where a DUTCHING tool does us a lot of good and helps us to make a profit. A Dutching tool, like the one which is free to use at Amwager.com, saves us doing the math to determine the right wagering amounts.
Exactas:
Box Tripoli, Mo Mosa and Royal Ship
Doubles: (if the pick 3 started in race 9 is no longer live if none of the contenders won, or if we forgot to make the bet, or if we just want to take a shot at extra profit).
Race 10: Royal Ship, Mo Mosa, Tripoli
Race 11: Jimmy Blue Jeans, Wyfire, Mohawk King, Lincoln Hawk, The Hulk
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Race 11 at Del Mar – Post Time 10 PM Eastern / 7 PM Pacific
Jimmy Blue Jeans, Wyfire, Mohawk King, Lincoln Hawk and The Hulk are the contenders to win and for exacta as well as trifecta tickets.
This race is a wide open allowance race for three year olds on the turf and with no likely heavy favorite it’s a great race to finish the pick 3 started in race 9, the double starts in race 10 and to bet by itself as well.
I’ll start with The Hulk, who is making his U.S. debut for Simon Callaghan, who also trains Mohawk King. The Hulk won three of his first five races in England, missing by a head in another, then ran poorly. He’s had five workouts for his U.S. debut, gets lasix and MOST importantly gets Umberto Rispoli, who along with Flavien Prat, has dominated turf races in Southern California for the past year, between them winning about 50% of the time. Callaghan does very well with European imports, sporting a record of 4-4-0 on 21 starts over the past few years, and including a few at high odds. Based on the gelding’s big efforts before the one which led to coming to the U.S., The Hulk is a legitimate contender at this allowance level and opens at 12/1.
Wyfire stretches out to two-turns off a fine runner-up effort at this condition sprinting on turf last month. That followed nine months off and in the race before the layoff he missed by a head in a stakes. Blinkers come off so I don’t expect him to be going for the lead, and in the sprint he rallied from eighth early to miss by inches so we can expect a fine effort for the very strong Miller barn.
Mohawk King finished second in his U.S. debut in May (another reason to expect The Hulk to run well) for Callaghan, then second again but this time in the Desert Code Stakes. He’s bred to stretch out just fine and may actually be the one to catch coming out of sprints and with Hernandez in the saddle, so could get brave and go all the way.
Jimmy Blue Jeans has won two in a row, both turf routes, the latter of the two the Snow Chief Stakes for Cal-Breds last month. He has tactical speed in that he stalked in second in his last two races and he gets the rail, which makes his 12/1 starting odds way out of line with his actually probability to win.
Lincoln Hawk is another recent European Import, having missed by a neck in his U.S. debut in a turf sprint in May before a strong win rallying from seventh to get up by a neck at a mile last month. He’s another who fits perfectly at the level and rounds out a quintet to help us make a nice profit in the nightcap.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: The Hulk, Wyfire and Jimmy Blue Jeans at 7 to 2 or higher.
I believe two of the three may go to post at 10/1 or more and in that case I would ABSOLUTELY bet them both as this is the kind of race which lends itself to nice prices.
Exacta:
Box Jimmy Blue Jeans, Wyfire, Mohawk King, Lincoln Hawk and The Hulk.
Trifecta:
Box Jimmy Blue Jeans, Wyfire, Mohawk King, Lincoln Hawk and The Hulk.
