Key Horse Races & Expert Handicapper Bets - June 12, 2021
Race 7 at Belmont – Post Time 4:06 PM Eastern
Subsidiary, Whispering Pines, Entreat and Love and Love are the win contenders.
Subsidiary gets slight preference among four horses which can win as she’s coming off a brilliant seven length score at a mile over the track. That was her first start at Belmont in a long time, after shipping up from Florida and Rodriguez rode her for the first time and rides back for the hot Noda barn. Cutting back to seven furlongs is no problem as she won at the distance in February and the 92 Equibase Speed figure earned is just one point off the top 93 figure earned when Love and Love finished second at this allowance level so no matter Subsidiary is stepping up from starter allowance to open allowance she fits and can run big opening at 4 to 1.
Whispering Pines didn’t do well when shipped from NY to Pimlico last month but like Subsidiary her first start at Belmont was a good one. In that effort, one before last in April, Whispering Pines finished second to a runaway six length winner no horse had any chance of beating, who then won again. Jose Ortiz was up then, not in Maryland, but gets back up and was in the saddle for the filly’s only win which came in December. The 96 figure earned in the runner-up effort is the best figure earned by any horse in the field so this gal fits on all counts as a contender.
Love and Love has six runner-up finishes in her career to go along with five wins, so appears as content to follow as to lead. Nevertheless her last two efforts, both at a mile, were solid and she led at the seven furlong mark in both, with 93 and 94 figures which are good enough to be in the thick of the action here if repeated.
Entreat is a contender but likely a poor win bet choice as she opens at 3 to 1 and will be bet down because Chad Brown trains. She won her one and only start last September but it was nothing special as it only earned an 87 figure. She should be stronger as a four year old but she was 7 to 2 that day and even with logical improvement as a more mature horse doesn’t appear to be any faster as compared to the three previously mentioned horses.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Subsidiary to win at odds of 5 to 2 or more.
It’s unlikely any of the others may be above the odds which makes sense but just in case:
Whispering Pines and/or Love and Love can be considered for win bets at odds of 7 to 2 or more.
Exacta:
Subsidiary over Entreat, Love and Love and Whispering Pines
Love and Love over Subsidiary, Entreat and Whispering Pines
Subsidiary, Entreat and Whispering Pines over Love and Love
The latter two exactas are because Love and Love has a very high probability to finish first or second.
Doubles:
Race 7: Entreat, Love and Love, Subsidiary, Whispering Pines
Race 8: Fierce Lady, Sadie Lady
Race 7: Subsidiary
Race 8: Fierce Lady, Sadie Lady
Race 7: Entreat, Love and Love, Subsidiary, Whispering Pines
Race 8: Fierce Lady
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Salvator Mile Stakes – Race 10 at Monmouth – Post Time 4:28 PM Eastern
Ny Traffic, Croatian and Pirate’s Punch are the win contenders.
Ny Traffic gets top billing in this year’s Salvator Mile Stakes by virtue of a strong seven-length win in his four year old debut last month. That win came at the distance of seven furlongs and earned a 99 Equibase Speed Figure which is highly likely to be improved upon significantly in his second start off the layoff and on the stretch out to two turns. Last spring and summer, Ny Traffic proved competitive with top three year olds Maxfield and then Authentic when second or third in three straight graded stakes – the Risen Star, Louisiana Derby and Matt Winn. Next came the Haskell Stakes at Monmouth last July in which Ny Traffic ran the best race of his career, earning a 107 figure and coming up just a nose shy of beating subsequent Kentucky Derby winner Authentic. Following an eighth-place finish in the Derby and a ninth-place effort in the Preakness, Ny Traffic was given time off to mature and he certainly did so as evidenced by his comeback last month. With Paco Lopez returning to the saddle to ride him as he did in the Haskell, Ny Traffic may be the one to beat in this race. As he opens at 9 to 5 we’re going to pass on making a win bet but will double up on exotic wagers to make money if he wins.
Croatian is the veteran in this field, having run 31 times. This will be only his second career start in a stakes race and the other, back in March of last year, was a poor effort in which he finished sixth. However, Croatian was claimed shortly thereafter by Jerry Hollendorfer and reeled off four straight top efforts including two wins and a defeat by a neck, all at Monmouth. The best of those, last September, earned Croatian a 107 figure on par with the figure Ny Traffic earned in the Haskell. Also similar to Ny Traffic, Croatian stretches out off a sprint prep following a layoff (October to April). In that sprint, Croatian finished fourth, beaten just two lengths by the winner, with a 97 figure very similar to NY Traffic. As such, it is very likely Croatian will take a big step forward and if he does and can duplicate any of his four efforts over the track last summer, he could post the upset or at the least run much better than his high odds suggest he will. Opening at 15/1, Croatian is a definite win bet in this race.
Pirate’s Punch has one big question mark regarding his chances which Ny Traffic and Croatian do not and that is he is making his first start of 2021, returning off a seven month layoff. Pirate’s Punch won the 2020 Salvator Mile with a strong 110 figure and fairly easily by two lengths in a field of eight, as the two to one betting favorite. He had won the Philip H. Iselin Stakes one month prior to that but was disqualified and placed second. Following a last of 12 finish in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, Pirate’s Punch was given time to rest and his recent workouts indicated he is in excellent physical form. Additionally, Pirate’s Punch won his 2020 debut with a 112 figure but that was following two months off and seven months can be quite different. Nevertheless as he’s proven at the level and over the track, Pirate’s Punch rounds out a trio I feel stand out against the others in this year’s Salvator Mile Stakes. Opening at 5/1, Pirate’s Punch is a second horse we must consider for a win bet in this race.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Croatian and Pirate’s Punch to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more.
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Exactas:
NyTraffic over Croatian and Pirate’s Punch
NyTraffic over Croatian, Pirates Punch, Galerio, West Will Power, Informative and Bal Harbour
Croatian, Ny Traffic and Pirate’s Punch over Ny Traffic, Croatian, Pirates Punch, Galerio, West Will Power, Informative and Bal Harbour
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Dancing Renee Stakes – Race 8 at Belmont – Post Time 4:40 PM Eastern
Fierce Lady and Sadie Lady are the win contenders but only Fierce Lady is a horse we can bet to win.
Fierce Lady returned from six months off a little under four weeks ago, after changing trainers to Brittany Russell, and absolutely ran the best race of her life, BY FAR, in her 12th career start. After stalking the pace in third early she took over and drew off by a couple of lengths, earning a graded stakes quality 109 Equibase figure. NO HORSE in this field has ever run that fast, not even Biogios Rose Stakes winner Espresso Shot (98) and Correction Stakes winner Sadie Lady (102). Considering that was her first start as a four year old and this will be her second start off the layoff, Fierce Lady should run even better and with Saez getting on she’s going to be tough to beat, and easy to bet, opening at 6 to 1.
Sadie Lady is the one the top pick has to run down to win as she’s a need-the-lead type with no company early unless Ruvies in Time tries to go or stays very close and causes her to go too fast early. She’s had the lead in the first quarter mile in all but one of her last nine races, winning five, including the Correction Stakes in March. Jose Ortiz gets on and she could get loose and not be caught again but I’m hoping she will so we can catch a decent exacta.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Fierce Lady at 2 to 1 or more.
Exacta: Box Fierce Lady and Sadie Lady
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Ginger Punch Stakes – Race 10 at Gulfstream – Post Time 5:02 PM Eastern
Sun Summers, Shifty She, Summering and Mo of the West are the win contenders.
Sun Summers nearly won the similar Sunshine Millions Filly & Turf Stakes in January, missing by a pair of necks after being blocked most of the stretch. She ran poorly in two races since, one at Tampa, but she has been rested two months and won before the Sunshine Millions off a two month layoff, so I think she’s going for fire a big shot and without the kind of traffic trouble she suffered from in January she can win.
Shifty She returned from 16 months off in April and tired to fourth after battling head-and-head early on fast fractions. Next time out, last month on 5/15, she relaxed in third early under Gonzalez (who rides today) and made the lead in the stretch but was getting tired late yet still hung on by a neck. That win came in the OPEN Powder Break Stakes so moving to this stakes for Florida breds only, and more importantly stronger third off the layoff and getting the rail, Shifty She could win her second in a row.
Summering opens as the 3 to 1 favorite on the strength of her win in the similar Distaff Turf Stakes at Tampa at the end of March, a race for Florida breds only. That was certainly a good effort, but she had put in three losses prior to that and had put in four losses between that second to last win and her last before that. She did win back-to-back to start her career and the 99 figure she earned in March can be improved upon in her second start of the year so she must be respected but anywhere near her starting 3 to 1 odds she’s not as good a win bet as either of the first two mares.
Mo of the West rounds out a quartet of contenders here, opening at 9 to 2. She finished third behind Shifty She last month and second, beaten a neck, behind Bienville Street (who has run very poorly in her last three races) in a stakes in January. Vasquez stays aboard and there is room for improvement after being beaten a length following four months off last month so she has to be respected as a contender.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Sun Summers and Shifty She at 5 to 2 or higher odds.
This is another race where a DUTCHING tool does us a lot of good and helps us to make a profit. A Dutching tool, like the one which is free to use at Amwager.com, saves us doing the math to determine the right wagering amounts.
Exacta: Sun Summers over Shifty She, Summering and Mo of the West
Mo of the West, Summering and Shifty She over Sun Summers
Trifecta: Box Sun Summers, Shifty She, Summering and Mo of the West
