Key Races & Bets for Saturday June 4, 2022
Race 8 at Belmont Park – Post Time 4:40 PM Eastern
This is a very interesting starter allowance open to horses which raced at least once in a claiming race carrying a $50,000 price. It’s really a non-winners of two BUT four of the nine entered have either two or three wins to date. More specifically, Royal Tryst and Blake B. have three wins including their most recent races, both at this one turf mile trip on the main track at Belmont. Royal Tryst moved to the Maker barn privately before that race and ran the best race of his career, earning a field high 97 Equibase Figure while drawing off easily at the end. He loses Davis but gets Jose Ortiz so I’m not concerned and he would be no surprise if winning again.
Blake B opens at 12 to 1 compared to 7 to 2 for Royal Tryst, and that potentially makes him a better bet although he would need to run a career-best race to beat Royal Tryst. The win on 4/30 at the trip earned a 90 figure and he earned a 93 figure winning last November so his best race could be good enough to win if Royal Tryst doesn’t repeat his last race.
For exactas and for doubles we will also use Luni Sima and Cousteau, the former first or second in all three starts after moving to the Walder barn and the latter the likely early leader and running first off the claim by Atras, whose new acquisitions win a strong 26% of the time
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Royal Tryst at odds of 5 to 2 or more AND Blake B. at odds of 7 to 2 or more.
The best way to capitalize on betting two horses to win, especially when their odds may high as is the case here, with the goal of maximizing our profit, is to “Dutch” the bet, which means to prorate it based on the odds. Amwager.com has a free and easy to use Dutching Tool available where you can set the amount you want to bet, or the amount you want to win, and the math is done for you. This is just one of many tools, and perks, available to the bettor at Amwager.com
Exactas:
Royal Tryst and Blake B. over Royal Tryst, Blake B., Luni Sima and Cousteau
Royal Tryst, Blake B., Luni Sima and Cousteau over Royal Tryst and Blake B.
Daily Doubles:
Race 8: Royal Tryst, Blake B., Luni Sima and Cousteau
Race 9: Limited Liability, Elizar
Daily Doubles:
Race 8: Royal Tryst, Blake B.
Race 9: Limited Liability, Elizar, Napoleonic War, Emmanuel, Unanimous Consent
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Mr. Prospector Stakes – Race 11 at Monmouth – Post Time 4:55 PM Eastern
Milton the Monster and Drafted will love the hot early pace, with Quick Tempo (on the rail) and Hollywood Jet (on the outside) both absolute need-the-lead types, perhaps joined by others. Milton the Monster gets slight preference because his 8 to 1 starting odds are both out of line and offer a lot of profit opportunity. He has a 4-2-5 record in 14 main track races and we must ignore his only turf start, at the end of April, where he faded to sixth after pressing the pace. He won two of three before that, both from off the pace and with hot Castillo riding I think Milton the Monster can sit near the outside from the start and take over in the stretch when the early leaders get tired.
Drafted just won the Grade 3 Runhappy Stakes last month at Belmont, rallying from last of five to win going away. He also won the Grade 3 Toboggan Stakes in February so this non-graded stakes gives him a big shot.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Milton the Monster and Drafted at odds of 5 to 2 or higher.
This is another race where the mathematical edge provided by a dutching tool, like the one which is free and easy to use at Amwager, will come in very handy.
Exacta: Box Milton the Monster and Drafted
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Pennine Ridge Stakes – Race 9 at Belmont Park – Post Time 5:12 PM Eastern
Although if you ran this race 100 times, five of the six (excluding the main track only) could win about 20 times each. That’s exactly why the most important thing is to try to extract value from the odds when wagering. Both Limited Liability and Elizar open at 6 to 1 and if those odds hold up on either or both they are very playable.
Limited Liability won his debut last July in a turf route at Saratoga and stamped himself as a potential star. Not disgraced when third in the With Anticipation Stakes and Pilgrim Stakes, he was given six months off to mature and improve by Hall-of-Fame trainer Shug McGaughey. Returning in a first level allowance race at Keeneland in mid-April, Limited Liability was visually impressive going from last of 12 to sixth in an eighth of a mile then from sixth to get up by a neck on the wire. He was then flattered when the third horse won and it’s highly likely McGaughey has been pointing for this race since then. Jose Ortiz rides back and the 92 Equibase figure is rock solid and very likely to be bettered in the colt’s second start off the layoff since last year.
Elizar won his debut last October in France, in a field of eight. He stalked the paced then went well clear by four lengths at the end in a big effort which earned a very strong 95 figure, which is the best figure in the field. Rosario rides for Clement, winning at nearly a 30% clip this year and also with a strong 4-4-4 record with 19 foreign imports making their U.S. debuts the past few years. Elizar has been working regularly on the Belmont turf and could easily outrun his 6 to 1 starting odds.
For the doubles started in race 8, and for exacta tickets we play in this race, we will also use Napoleonic War, Emmanuel and Unanimous Consent.
Handicapper Picks
Win Bets: Limited Liability and Elizar at odds of 3 to 1 or higher.
Exactas:
Limited Liability over Elizar, Napoleonic War, Emmanuel and Unanimous Consent.
Elizar, Napoleonic War, Emmanuel and Unanimous Consent over Limited Liability.
