Key Races & Bets for Saturday December 11, 2021
Race 8 at Gulfstream Park – Post Time 3:28 PM Eastern
We Miss Susie opens at pretty nice odds of 10/1 and even if those odds come down she offers a lot of value for our wagering dollars. She drops in class from the non-winners of 2 other than (NW2X) allowance level for the one lower NW1X level and is in for the optional 25K claiming price, because she’s already won at the level. That win came at this six furlong trip and here at Gulfstream Park in March of 2020 and although that was a long time ago, We Miss Susie ran a similar race when winning in June of this year, three races back, in a starter allowance race where she was protected (not able to be claimed) the same as she was in her last two races where she faced much tougher than she’s facing today. She was the 4 to 5 favorite one before last and 7 to 2 last time out but as mentioned in the opening sentence opens at 10 to1 here. Referring back to both wins, in each case We Miss Susie started fourth and rallied and she’s likely to do the same thing here after Restofthestory, Wild America and Gitana, all need-the-lead types, get through battling heavily on a fast and contested early pace.
My Destiny just won over the track at the distance from just off the pace and gets a great outside post to stalk the pacesetters today and possibly do the same thing. She was second prior to that, also over the track, and she was claimed by Wilensky for a measly $12,500 last month but is raised way up in class to try to earn the $36K winner’s share of the purse and that’s pretty good incentive for a big effort. Her 46.6 half-mile workout in late November shows she’s in good form as well.
Awesome Annmarie missed by a neck three back under identical conditions in June then was beaten a length when second in July before a poorer fifth place effort as the 3 to 2 favorite. Freshened three months and reunited with the jockey (Morelos) who was up for the neck defeat in June, this gal also should really like the early pace scenario and with a four for nine record offers value for a win bet opening at 8 to 1.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Based on probability, minimum odds on the three contenders above are 7 to 2. What I would do in this situation is bet TWO of the THREE and the ones I’d bet are the two going to post at the highest odds near post tie.
When we consider wagers on two or more overlays from fair (minimum odds), we can and should adjust our bets accordingly in order to maximize our profit both in the short term and in the long term. That can be best accomplished by using a “Dutching Tool” like the one which is free and easy to use at Amwager.com. A Dutching tool lets you set the amount you want to bet or the amount you want to win, then based on the odds your bets are proportioned accordingly. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.
Exactas:
Box We Miss Susie, Awesome Annmarie and My Destiny
Also play We Miss Susie, Awesome Annmarie and My Destiny over We Miss Susie, Awesome Annmarie, My Destiny, Bargainaire and Playara
Pick 3’s (multiple tickets):
Race 8: We Miss Susie, Awesome Annmarie, My Destiny
Race 9: Palatial Times, Devoted Kitten, Man On the Moon, New Year, Alado, On Base
Race 10: Endorsed, Dennis’ Moment, Officiating
Race 8: We Miss Susie, Awesome Annmarie, My Destiny, Bargainaire, Playara
Race 9: Devoted Kitten, New Year
Race 10: Endorsed, Dennis’ Moment, Officiating
You can also play doubles, even for just $1, using the contenders in races 8 and 9 above.
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Race 9 at Gulfstream Park – Post Time 3:59 PM Eastern
New Year and Devoted Kitten stand out in my opinion, but because On Base opens at 15/1, even with a slightly lower probability to win, I must respect him as a win contender when making bets involving this race.
New Year tried the Tapeta all-weather track at Gulfstream Park for the first time one before last on October 14 and finished 4th of eight then as many horses do improved DRAMATICALLY second time over the surface one month ago when winning easily by four lengths in a field of 10. That effort earned a field high 101 Equibase figure which makes it easier to compare horses which have run on all three surfaces at Gulfstream (and elsewhere). One of just three horses in the field with four of more wins but still eligible for this starter condition, New Year appears very capable of winning his second in a row considering trainer Rodriguez gets his charges to win back-to-back a pretty strong 20% of the time.
Devoted Kitten leads the field with six career wins including the one on 11/6 in his first ever start on Tapeta. He won by three and just about as easily as New Year but the figure came in a bit lower. Still, he’s making his second start on the surface and third off the claim by high percentage trainer Delgado (23% wins on 240+ races this year) and although Castillo get off, Sutherland has won nearly 30% of the time (in 90 races) for the trainer at GP this year and last so there are no concerns about the jockey change.
On Base has been first or second in 6 of 12 races this year, all on all-weather either at Presque Isle Downs or at Gulfstream. He gets positive jockey change to Zayas off a poor sixth place effort and makes his second start at the meeting. One before that, On Base rallied from fourth to lead in the stretch and although settling for second at the end was well clear of the third horse in an effort which if repeated could help him be part of the exacta at the least, and at high odds.
Man on the Moon (second in a similar situation in his most recent race), Palatial Times (stretching out off a third place sprint so with potential to be the one the rest have to catch for Maker and Gaffalione) and Alado (first or second in four straight races on turf or all-weather before a fifth place effort last out) all have some shot and should be used on some tickets we play involving this race.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: New Year and Devoted Kitten, either of both, at odds of 2 to 1 or more.
This is ABSOLUTELY a race to use a Dutching Tool when betting two horses to win, like the one which is free and very easy to use at Amwager.com
Exactas:
New Year and Devoted Kitten over New Year, Devoted Kitten, Palatial Times, Man On the Moon, Alado and On Base
New Year, Devoted Kitten, Palatial Times, Man On the Moon, Alado and On Base over New Year and Devoted Kitten
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Mr. Prospector Stakes – Race 10 at Gulfstream Park – Post Time 4:32 PM Eastern
Officiating took seven tries to earn his first win, doing so on turf this past March. Following his maiden win and after missing by a neck in a non-graded stakes race on turf and a mediocre third place effort on dirt, he was privately transferred to the barn of trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr. Then, after fourth and third place finishes on turf, Officiating was entered in the Bear’s Den Stakes, scheduled for turf, but stayed in the race which was moved to dirt due to weather, earning a career best 110 Equibase Speed Figure and winning authoritatively by three and one-half lengths. In his most recent race and following the Bear’s Den, Officiating tried the Tapeta all-weather surface and two-turns in the Showing Up Stakes last month and ran poorly, demonstrating only he did not like the surface nor the distance. Cutting back to the distance of the Bear’s Den while moving back to the surface of that race, it can be assumed Officiating can duplicate his effort in that race which is good enough to win. There is also little doubt about his being able to run as well considering his last two workouts on dirt coming into the race have been excellent.
Dennis’ Moment was thought to be a top two year old in the summer of 2019 following his 19 length win in July with a 106 figure, virtually unheard of for a young two year old. He won the Iroquois Stakes two months later but after finishing last of eight in that year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes he was given time off to mature. When returning in the Fountain of Youth Stakes last February, 2020, Dennis’ Moment was sent to post as the heavy favorite but finished 10th and last. Rested another nine months, he ran poorly one year ago and was again given time off. This time the rest helped greatly as Dennis’ Moment missed by a head in a six furlong sprint. Two races later in October, Dennis’ Moment earned his first win in 25 months in a highly rated race at Keeneland at the distance of the Mr. Prospector, duplicating the 106 figure earned in the summer of 2019. With logical improvement off that effort in his fourth start off the rest and at the same distance of his last effort, Dennis’ Moment has every right to earn a graded stakes win for the second time in his career.
Endorsed can win based on his runner-up effort behind Sir Alfred James last month at Churchill Downs at this distance and as such I’ll be playing him on pick 3 and other tickets but I wouldn’t consider a win bet based on his low starting odds of 5 to 2 combined with his 2021 record of 0-2-4 in nine races. He has faced some good ones but was never really a threat to them so without those in the race that doesn’t move him up enough in my opinion to make him a play as a win bet.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Officiating to win at odds of 4 to 1 or more
Exactas:
Box Officiating and Dennis’ Moment
Box Officiating and Endorsed
