Key Races & Bets for Saturday January 22, 2022
Race 6 at Aqueduct – Post Time 2:48 PM Eastern
Win contenders are Moonachie, South Sea and Mi Tres Por Ciento. Horses to be considered for second on exacta tickets are Summer Bourbon, Gran Casique and Speeding Kid.
Moonachie runs first off the claim by Vasquez, hitting at a VERY high rate so far at the meeting with seven wins from 19 starts. The key here is in spite of being off for almost five months off the $12,500 claim, Moonachie is raised to the $16K level. That’s because his last race at Aqueduct, in March, was a strong winning effort versus tougher than these, and because he’s showing signs of running back to that race with a very strong half-mile workout on January 4 as part of a series of four drills since returning to training on 12/19.
South Sea was also claimed out of his most recent start, but opposite Moonachie he is dropped from that 25K claiming level to this 16K level. Still, he’s been running very consistently as he’s not been worse than third in five races going back to July. All five were on grass, but he has earned seven of his eight career wins on dirt and like Moonachie, South Sea put in a splendid workout recently, on 1/13 at four furlongs which was the best of 79 on the day.
Mi Tres Por Ciento runs second off the Linda Rice claim for 40K in October, having run only once since, for 25K, so this second drop is a bit suspect. Still, he’s never raced this cheaply and won at Aqueduct 11 months ago as well as adds blinkers worn for his last two wins.
Handicapper Picks
Win bet: Moonachie at odds of 5 to 2 or more.
Exactas:
Box Moonachie, South Sea and Mi Tres Por Ciento
Moonachie, South Sea and Mi Tres Por Ciento over Moonachie, South Sea, Mi Tres Por Ciento, Summer Bourbon, Gran Casique and Speeding Kid.
Pick 3 (optional daily double in both races 6/7 and 7/8)
Race 6: Moonachie, South Sea and Mi Tres Por Ciento
Race 7: Why Why Paul Why, Empty Tomb, Twelve Volt Man, Forewarned
Race 8: Thinking It Over, Flip My Lid, Leeloo
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Jazil Stakes – Race 7 at Aqueduct – Post Time 3:20 PM Eastern
Forewarned, Twelve Volt Man and Why Why Paul Why are the main win contenders but also Empty Tomb will be considered on some exacta tickets and for the pick 3 and doubles.
Forewarned posted the big upset at 42 to 1 in the identical Queens County Stakes five weeks ago, identical because it was a nine furlong stakes at Aqueduct. Two before that he won a 10 furlong race in Ohio and this past summer he missed by a head at 10 furlongs in another stakes in Ohio. This seven year old has 10 wins and is approaching the $800K mark in earnings so is no slouch. ONLY he and Twelve Volt Man have won at this distance although Empty Tomb has finished second or third five times in seven tries, so Forewarned, who beat Empty Tomb last month in the Queens County, appears very capable of repeating that effort.
Twelve Volt Man is a lightly raced (six races on dirt) four year old with four wins. He won his ONLY try around two turns on dirt, last month at Gulfstream Park. That was the Claiming Crown Jewel Stakes and he was ONLY eligible to run in that race because last October trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr. entered him for the optional claiming price to make him eligible for that starter stakes. In the Jewel, Twelve Volt Man rallied three wide at the quarter pole and won pretty easily in a field of 10 and with jockey Edwin Gonzalez following him north from Florida, and with a 110 Equibase Figure which stacks up very nicely with the 115 figure Forewarned earned winning the similar Queens County Stakes, Twelve Volt Man must be considered a win contender, and a good win bet, opening at 10/1.
Why Why Paul Why has been a monster since trainer Pearce claimed him last June, because he was just 1 for 12 before the claim and has won five of six since, moving all the way up to win the Kris Kringle Stakes at Parx last month with authority. The 115 figure was no fluke as he earned 106 and 107 figures prior to that. Now with 10 first or second place finishes in 18 races, better still nine of 12 on dirt, the only knock is he has never run this 9 furlong trip but as he’s a son of Archarcharch I don’t see that as an issue. Carmouche rode him for the first time to that win last month and rides back so this horse strongly rounds out the main trio of win contenders here, NONE of which is favored. That honor goes to First Constitution (5/2), Core Conviction (7/2) and Empty Tomb (3/1), with the first two of three over bet as Pletcher and Brown, respectively, are their trainers, but neither is as fast as Forewarned, Twelve Volt Man or Why Why Paul Why.
Empty Tomb had a 2-4-1 record in 2021 and as stated previously is winless in seven tries at this nine furlong trip, finishing second or third in five of those. Still, he led until late in the stretch in the Queens County and IF jockey Cancel can rate him behind the more likely early leader Core Conviction, Empty Tomb could get the lead in deep stretch, with a slight chance to hang on over the closers as he did one before last when beating First Constitution. That’s why I’m going to use him on pick 3 tickets, but opening at 3 to 1 I’m going to take a stand against him for exacta plays.
Handicapper Picks
Win Bets: Forewarned AND Twelve Volt Man to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more.
(If one of those two scratches, substitute Why Why Paul Why)
With Forewarned opening at 9 to 2 and Twelve Volt Man at twice the odds (10/1), this is a great race in which to proportion our bets accordingly for the best mathematical edge. This can be best accomplished by using a “Dutching Tool” like the one which is free and easy to use at Amwager.com. A Dutching tool lets you set the amount you want to bet or the amount you want to win, then based on the odds your bets are proportioned accordingly. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.
Exactas:
Box Forewarned, Twelve Volt Man and Why Why Paul Why
Box Forewarned, Twelve Volt Man, Why Why Paul Why and Empty Tomb
For optional doubles between races 8 and 9 refer to the horses used in the pick 3 play at the bottom of race 7.
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Franklin Square Stakes – Race 8 at Aqueduct – Post Time 3:50 PM Eastern
Flip My Lid, Thinking It Over and Leeloo are the main contenders. Sterling Silver, Moam, Shesawildjoker and Captainsdaughter can be use in second on some exacta tickets.
Flip My Lid could be a very profitable play here as she opens at 15/1. This is based not only on having finished seventh, seventh and sixth I her last three races but also because they, as well as her only other start, were on turf. She won that debut, in July at Belmont, with maturity after stalking in third early, and she rallied six paths wide yet still drew off, as the 8 to 5 favorite. ALL THREE of her races since were stakes and not only that they are “OPEN” stakes, not just for NY breds like this stakes is. She’s bred to love dirt and calls the strong Mike Maker barn home. In her debut, Flip My Lid earned an 82 Equibase Speed Figure which is absolutely as good as the top figure horses in the field (Leeloo 81, Thinking It Over 83 and Sandy’s Garden 83) so Flip My Lid is as likely to run well as any of those.
Thinking It Over won her only start, at Aqueduct, in November. She showed a lot of maturity when stalking in third of 11 early before rallying four wide on the turn and drawing off. Rested a couple of months and with Davis riding back for the hot Handal barn (7 for 21 at the meet), this gal might just need only modest improvement off a field high tying 83 figure to win this race.
Leeloo didn’t run well in her debut in the race won by Sterling Silver (with a pretty low 71 figure) but improved markedly second time out on 12/11 to win in eased up fashion by eight lengths, improving to an 81 figure. She’s moving in the right direction and Carmouche rides back so she rounds out the main trio of win contenders.
Handicapper Picks
Win Bets: Flip My Lid at odds of 5 to 1 or more AND Thinking It Over to win at odds of 5 to 2 or more.
This is another race where, when wagering on two horses (or more) for the best mathematical edge, a DUTCHING tool like the one at Amwager, really helps us maximize the value for our win bets.
Exactas:
Box Flip My Lid with ALL
Thinking It Over and Leeloo over Thinking It Over, Leeloo, Sterling Silver, Moam, Shesawildjoker and Captainsdaughter
