Wednesday March 25, 2021

Tampa Bay Downs

Below are our selections to construct Doubles and PICK3/4/5s

RACE 1

Must use #4, 5
Stretch/Wildcard #2

All past winners had a jockey ranked in the top3 which would point to #2, 4,5 today
#4 has the trainer advantage

#5 has the jockey advantage

#2 Burkley’s Babe is a stretch but also has the earnings advantage at Tampa.

RACE 2
Must use #2, 3
Contender #1

Significant factors: best speed last 3 races, earnings at Tampa

RACE 3
Must use #4, 5
Contender #2 (debut runner)

Significant factors: avg speed last 3 races, last purse, Avg E2 pace, speed last race

#2 Continually is a debut runner, jockey Sammy Camacho wins on debut fillies 25% of the time at this purse range.

RACE 4

Must Use #6
Contenders #3, 5
Stretch/Longshot #7

With the best lifetime speed advantage and best speed at Tampa, combined with jockey rank and E2 rank, the #6 Rachel’s Wish matches 50% of past horses who have won this race type. Of the chalk #1, 3, 6 the #6 should provide our best chance.

The #5 and #7 lack speed but have strong trainers and jockeys for Tampa. If the #3 or #6 miss the win, we would expect it is because of either #5 or #7.

RACE 5
Must Use #3, 6, 7

The #7 King Ottokar has the jockey advantage and a minor speed advantage, when present in past horses those runners won 38% of the time and scored second place 61% of the time. We will not single the #7 in this leg, we will include the #3 and #6 in our tickets.

OUR 0.50 PICK 5
RC1 # 4, 5
RC2 # 2, 3
RC3 # 2, 4, 5
RC4 # 6
RC5 # 3, 6, 7
Total Cost $18

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