Keeneland – Thursday October 28

We develop our picks through a process of regression analysis, evaluating past winners for today’s race types to identify significant attributes we can build bets around. Hopefully our insights are helpful to others as they build their own tickets.

RACE 1

Significant attributes: Horses Beat%, Speed last race

TRIFECTA

#2, 8

#2, 8

#3, 4, 7

EXACTA

#8

#3, 4, 7

RACE 2
Significant attributes: Avg Speed Best 2oflast3 races, jockey

Best horse for WIN/PLACE #5 Pinson

TRIFECTA
#3, 5
#6, 7
#3, 5

TRIFECTA
#3, 5
#3, 5
#6, 7

RACE 3

Debut runners rarely hit the board for this race type so we can over-look # 1, 3, 12, 13

#2 Lady De Peron has the best rank for Horses Beat% which the most significant attribute for this race type.

TRIFECTA
#2, 7
#2, 6, 7
#2, 5, 6, 7, 11

RACE 4

Significant attributes: best lifetime speed, jockey

.10 SUPERFECTA
#5, 7
#5, 7
#2, 5, 7, 8
#1-3,5-8

.10 SUPERFECTA
#5, 7
#2, 8
#5,7
#1-3,5-8

RACE 5

For this maiden special weight, when past winners were NOT first time starters, they had strong advantages for either InTheMoney%, Speed, HorsesBeat% or Earnings.

None of today’s runners really express these strengths. So, the debut runners should have a good chance to get to the finish line first.

Clarkland Farm, owners of debut runner #4 Marr Tim, win 40% of the time with 2yr olds!

Trainer Brenden Walsh + owners Godolphin + jockey Tyler Gaffalione are a powerful combination with the Tapit filly # 6 Flower Garden.

We will use these two, along with the #5 in our multi-race tickets.

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OUR EARLY PICK 5
RC1 # 8
RC2 # 5,6
RC3 # 2,7
RC4 # 2,5,7,8
RC5 # 4-6

Cost $24

DOUBLE
RC1 #2, 8
RC2 #3, 5, 6
Cost $6

DOUBLE
RC4 # 2, 5, 7
RC5 # 4, 5, 6