September 23rd – Thrilling Picks Select Picks

THURSDAY GULFSTREAM PARK SEPT 23
We develop our picks through a process of analyzing past races that mirror today’s conditions to identify significant attributes that have helped past winners (aka regression analysis) .  The selections below are intended to help shape multi-race tickets (Doubles, PICK3,4,5s).

RACE 1

Of the chalky contenders #3, 5, 8, handicappers maybe better off to toss #8 Greatest Glory from the win position of tickets because it finished 17+ lengths behind the winner in it’s prior race. Compare that to #3 SweetCandyFacatory which was only 1 length behind the winner if her last race. #5 Kingston Queen is the wildcard, it reared during at the start of it’s last race, meanwhile she was the favorite in the race before that.

EXACTA

#3, 5
#3, 5, 8

For Multi-Race Wagers
Must Use # 3
Stretch # 5

RACE 2
An interesting insight to share: Horses making a cut back in distance have NEVER won this race type before.  This helps us eliminate two contenders immediately the #2 and #5.

60% of the time this race has been won by horses with the E2 pace advantage. Today, this is   #4 Levy Land, but at 8-1 we will keep #4 as our stretch horse.

For Multi-Race Wagers
Must Use # 1, 6
Stretch # 4

RACE 3
This race type has been won by first time runners 100% of the time, but we are hesitant to single #4 Alecka Star, trainer Michael Yates has never won with a 3yr old debut runner. Trainer of #7 Happy Success, Ralph Nicks, doesn’t have a very strong win% at this level however, the owners do! Whisper Hill Farm have won 33% of races when their horses have a 3 month lay off.

For Multi-Race Wagers
We are going wide using #1, 4, 6, 7

RACE 4

As this race has gone off the turf, our model says to focus on Best Lifetime Speed and Avg Late Pace.

For Multi-Race Wagers
#2, 3, 9, 10

RACE 5

Another race won by 1st time starters majority of the time. We never bet RunHappy progeny on debut runs, they have poor win% , so we toss the longshot #8 Secret Melody. The jockey of #4 Wandering E. Jaramillo is the strongest jockey for this race type, wins 17% of the time.

For Multi-Race Wagers
Must Use # 1, 4, 5
Contender # 3

OUR PICK 5 in RACE 1
rc1 # 3, 5, 6
rc2 # 1, 6
rc3 #1, 4, 6, 7
rc4 # 2, 3, 9,10 (off turf)
rc5 # 1, 4

OUR PICK 3 in RACE 2
rc2 # 4
rc3 #1, 4, 5, 6, 7
rc4 # 2, 3, 9,10 (off turf)

Share This Story!

Related Posts

The Champagne Stakes

There are plenty of stakes to choose from this Saturday and there is no shortage of Breeders’ Cup implications. The Champagne has implications beyond the

Read More »

Another Super Saturday

Another Super Saturday This will be one of the last if not the last Super Saturdays prior to the Breeders’ Cup. There will be some

Read More »