The Breeders’ Cup Distaff 2024
There are plenty of championship implications in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff this year. Thorpedo Anna, aka The Grizzly Bear will likely be the shortest priced favorite on the card. I would guess she goes to post somewhere in the neighborhood of 3-5 and 2-5 wouldn’t surprise me.
Her race two back against the boys in The Travers was a huge runner-up effort. It was a hard race in a string of hard races. She has held her form despite having to work harder than most expected to win The Cotillion at Parx. Horses are not machines and am I inclined how many hard races like her last few does she have in her. Some are of the opinion she was not fully cranked up at Parx. I do not believe that for a second. Ken Mcpeek has not only three-year-old filly champ on his mind he is thinking Horse of the Year and a win in The Distaff might just do that depending on some other results. No chance Ken didn’t have her at the top of her game in Pennsylvania.
She will be facing older fillies for the first time including an intriguing invader from Japan in Awesome Result. Idiomatic scratched early insuring Thorpedo Anna odds on status.
In multi race wagers you either ride with her as a single or bet against her and leave her off the ticket. Including her and others could work out given the pool sizes with the right results, but you would be putting yourself behind the eight ball, something you should never do when betting horses. There are enough hurdles already you don’t want to add any.
You’d be hard pressed to find anyone who doesn’t like her, and she will be one of the most singled horses on the card. If I am going to ride with a short price like that, I must see no vulnerability whatsoever. I do see some vulnerability here. The hard campaign concerns me from a wagering perspective. When I combine that with how hard she had to work at Parx for that win I think she just might be tailing off a bit. Perhaps this is the time to take a shot against her. You’d have to do so being well aware she could beat you but sometimes in this game you go with your gut and take a shot. If you are going to try and beat her you can use as many as you like hoping to get lucky. If you do beat her you’ll knock out a lot of the multi race tickets. That’s music to a multi race player’s ears.
I lean to Raging Sea. She comes home as fast as any horse in this race, the heavily favored filly included. She appears to have finally put it all together and I have always believed she was cut out to be very good. While her odds won’t be huge in the win pool I have to think they will be twice what they show in the multi race wagers and maybe even more if we get some big process in the other legs. Like I said sometimes you go with your gut and take a shot.
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