The Quarantine Edition of the Florida Derby

While the world struggles to cope with Coronavirus, Gulfstream Park is intent on running the Florida Derby card sans fans in the stands. The consensus is they won’t run beyond Saturday. Santa Anita, also owned by the Stronach Group, will likely employ a similar plan and try and run through their Santa Anita Derby card. We’ll see.

To their credit, Gulfstream has put together a stellar card of racing on Saturday. The Florida Derby has a full field of twelve with an also eligible. I’ll give you my rundown on the race and horses.

As Seen On Tv has a nice inside draw and Paco Lopez has been hot. He’s never run a bad one, and he has a nice style for this race in that he can sit just off the speed and save ground. I don’t trust him 100% and may toss him despite fearing him.
Shivaree takes blinkers off and stretches out. Jaramillo likes to gun, and his best chance maybe if he does just that. He makes it interesting and tough for Ete Indien if he indeed goes. I’m not sold he can win.
Disc Jockey so far looks like an excellent claim for Saffie Joseph, who has done this before a la Math Wizard. He also looks like he will get a good trip here. I think I have to use him.

Soros obviously has some ability. He broke his maiden in a stake. He should be well off the pace with a lot to do. I’m going to pass. Gouverneur Morris I expect to get a lot of play. He’s a hyped horse. I have liked him since I saw him. 8-1 isn’t very likely, but I think a strong and likely winning race is—my top choice.

Ajaaweed is another who is ok but will be far back early on Saturday. He is one to watch going forward, in my opinion. That said, if the pace heats up, and it may, he’s a dangerous runner. Using.

Tiz the Law will go favored. He’s hard to knock. He handled Ete Indien, who came right back to run a huge race. He’s fresh, has a nice style, and rider hungry for these type mounts. I’m going to bet against him on the win end, but he deserves respect nonetheless.
My First Grammy is a maiden who looks way overmatched to me.
Independence Hall looks better on paper to me than I thought he would. I like the switch to Rosario, who may take him back a bit. I don’t have any legit excuse for his last, but I like Tampa as a setup track. I’m going to use him.
Candy Tycoon ran well in the Fountain of Youth, but I think it looks better than it was. He made a nice wide run, but not sure he goes forward again here.

Sassy But Smart likes turf better. A pass for me.

Ete Indien ran them off their heels last out. Can he clear again from the 12 hole this time and do it again? Maybe but the two inside horses can hurt him if they hold ground. He also has to go a tad further. Independence Hall and Tiz the Law probably won’t let him get away. I’m gonna say they get him this time.

Rouge Element is the also eligible who is not eligible to win, in my opinion.

For me, I’m going to use Gouverneur Morris and Ajaaweed on top and in any multi-race wagers. Gouverneur Morris should move first, and if he’s not good enough, I’ll have a late chance with Ajaaweed.

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Jon Stettin

Since childhood, Jon has always had a deep love and respect for the Sport of Kings. His years of experience have earned him a well respected spot in the industry as a handicapper. He now is a frequent contributor to AmWager as well as writing for his own site.

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