The Tropical Turf Single

On Saturday Gulfstream Park will run the Grade 3 Tropical Turf which may serve as somewhat of a preview of the Pegasus World Cup Turf to be run January 29th. Todd Pletcher and Chad Brown both have runners that can wind up in the Pegasus at the end of the month. Pletcher’s Largent has not run since the Pegasus Turf last year where he was beaten a neck by his stablemate Colonel Liam. Largent loves the course at Gulfstream with a 4 for 6 record with two seconds. He has speed but doesn’t need the lead, has Saez and the rail, runs well fresh and brings it every time he goes into the gate. He is working well, and Todd knows how to fire fresh. I must give him the edge and nod in here.

Chad Brown sends out Value Proposition who on his best day is every bit as good and fast as Largent. He comes off a subpar effort sprinting but should like this mile race much better and will be ridden by the recent suspension returnee Irad Ortiz who. Wasted no time getting back to the winner’s circle. Irad was suspended in part for fouling a Chad Brown horse in the Remsen back at Aqueduct bit obviously no grudge was held. That said, Irad owes Chad a nice ride and he will likely get the best out of Value Proposition on Saturday. He will be the horse to beat, and a handful but I lean Largent in this contest. Luis Saez rode Value Proposition last two starts but rides Largent off the bench in here.

So much of this game is strategy and positioning. You likely have a good chance of getting by this race using both these horses in the Rainbow 6 if you are so inclined to play it. It is the safe way to go, and most players will take that approach. I won’t. I’d rather single here, where I think I just have one horse to beat and spread later or earlier in races I think have more contenders. I believe in the long run, and I view this game as a marathon, I will put myself in position to score more often going this way as opposed to the safer way. If you are in position often enough, it will happen. Being willing to cash less tickets bit win more money leads to long term success as odd as that may sound on the surface.

There are a lot of people who don’t like singles in multi-race wagers. I love them and depend on them. I’m not afraid to back and stand by my opinion. This obviously allows you to spread and go deep in races you are not as confident in. You’ll often hear people say they lose in deep races and end up scratching their heads. I have a theory about that. When you’re deep your opinion is not as strong as when you are short or narrow or even singled. You’re fishing and that is when you can beat as opposed to when you have a strong opinion.

Use the single to put yourself in position for the score. If you, do it often enough it’ll happen. Scared money doesn’t win. Don’t be scared to stand by your opinion. We all are wrong more than right.

We are planning a fun and info filled Pegasus World Cup seminar. It is free and if you miss the live interactive version an audio and video replay will be available. Get all the details HERE

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Jon Stettin

Since childhood, Jon has always had a deep love and respect for the Sport of Kings. His years of experience have earned him a well respected spot in the industry as a handicapper. He now is a frequent contributor to AmWager as well as writing for his own site.

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