AmWager Key Races & Bets for Saturday, June 22, 2019
Race 7 at Monmouth – Post Time 4:30 PM Eastern
This wide open maiden race leads into the Iselin Stakes (Race 10) and offers profit opportunity, not only in doubles to race 10, but in this race itself. Rumors of Violence ran very well when second last month in a race scheduled for turf but run on the main track, which was his first start after five months off. Trainer Dickinson, always high percentage on few starters, is 6 for 13 on the year, including two for three at the meeting, BOTH ridden by Gallardo, who rides this gelding who should improve nicely second off the layoff.
Zieg may be second most likely in my opinion but as he opens at 15/1 he must be played as well. He improved nicely second time out in April to be third at seven furlongs and is absolutely bred to adore the turf. That race turned out to be a key race and the 82 Equibase Speed Figure he earned is close enough to the 86 figure Rumors of Violence earned in his most recent start that, with logical improvement, this horse can run as well.
Trinity must be considered a contender although he’s likely to go to post favored in the betting as he was last month at 2 to 1 when he led for the first mile then tired to fifth. He had run very well in two prior, either of those good enough to win here if repeated.
Win Bets: Rumors of Violence to win at odds of 5 to 2 or higher.
Zieg to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more, adding a place bet at 6 to 1 or more.
When making multiple win bets, use a “Dutching” tool with which you can enter the amount you want to spend or the amount you want to win and the calculation of how much to bet will be done for you. Amwager provides a free “Dutching” tool, among other great benefits for the handicapper and bettor.
Exactas:
Rumors of Violence, Zieg and Trinity over Rumors of Violence, Zieg, Trinity, Air Attack, Medina Ridge, Superhighway, Storm Tower and Travel Agent.
Doubles: Rumors of Violence, Zieg and Trinity in Race 9 with Bal Harbour, Runnin’toluvya and Diamond King in Race 10.
Rumors of Violence, Zieg, Trinity, Air Attack, Medina Ridge, Superhighway, Storm Tower and Travel Agent in Race 9 with Runnin’toluvya in Race 10. (Optionally, also use Bal Harbour and Diamond King).
Iselin Stakes – Race 10 at Monmouth – Post Time 5 PM Eastern
Runnin’toluvya doesn’t really know what losing feels like, having won 11 in a row and 13 of 17 races. All have been at Charles Town but one was the Charles Town Classic, in which he beat Diamond King and some other nice horses. He’s a two-turn specialist with excellent tactical speed who can win on the lead or from just off the pace and it’s great the trainer goes to a local jockey in Suarez. With the three post, Runnin’toluvya should be first or second early and should win for the 14th time in his career as his 110, 116 and 108 Equibase figures from his last three wins are as good or better than the other two win contenders, with the rest really a cut below.
Bal Harbour was third, two lengths behind runner-up Diamond King, in the Salvatore Mile over the track last month. That was his first race after four months off so he has room to improve and he does get seven pounds from Runnin’toluvya so he could improve off the effort on a couple of counts. Whether that improvement is good enough to win is a question as his last win came in November around one turn with a 105 figure. Diamond King adds blinkers, a bit odd for a stakes, but considering he led by a half-length in the stretch in the Salvatore Mile and was passed (albeit by a very good horse in Sunny Ridge) the blinkers could help. He’s earned 108, 115 (when second to Runnin’toluvya) and 109 figures in his last three and is in the best form of his career.
Bets: Runnin’toluvya at 2 to 1 or more. (If live in the double, it’s okay to skip the win bet).
Exacta: Runnin’toluvya over Bal Harbour, Diamond King and Monongahela.
Race 8 at Belmont – Post Time 5:18 PM Eastern
I like this race not only because it provides opportunities to play doubles to the Wild Applause Stakes (Race 9) but also because I think Morgantown is a solid play and he opens at 10/1. A perfect two-for-two in his career to date, he has superb early speed and should have the lead to himself once again from his inside draw. He beat “open” (not statebred) company last out and Cancel, who rode him to his maiden win in April, gets back on and will send him from the gate to play “come catch me.”
Bets: Morgantown to win at 5 to 2 or more, adding a place bet at 5 to 1 or more.
Doubles: Morgantown in Race 8 with ALL in Race 9.
Also, ALL in Race 8 with Nova Sol in Race 9.
Wild Applause Stakes – Race 9 at Belmont – Post Time 5:51 PM Eastern
Nova Sol was very well meant in her U.S. debut and first start after seven months off last month in the Hilltop Stakes on Preakness weekend. Breaking last of 10 early, the filly was relaxed and far back, 15 lengths to be exact, after a half-mile, then began a steady rally to be second at the wire. The winner, Dogtag, is a multiple stakes winner and the third horse flattered both the winner and Nova Sol by winning a stakes next time out, improving her Equibase figure by 12 points. Since Nova Sol earned a field high 98 figure in the Hilltop, that kind of improvement makes her the one to beat by far, so she’s going to be a low odds overlay in this race.
Bets: Nova Sol to win at odds of even money or higher. (Note: If the doubles are paying decently there’s likely no need to play Nova Sol to win)
Wilshire Stakes – Race 8 at Santa Anita – Post Time 7:36 PM Eastern (4:46 Pacific)
Ollies Candy had a phenomenal three year old campaign last year, never worse than second in five races, winning the Grade 2 Summertime Oaks and beaten necks in the Del Mar Oaks and San Clemente. She was short when returning in May trying nine furlongs without a prep but she’s going to be a LOT tighter here as Sadler wins better than 20% of the time second off a layoff in a turf route. As such, she and has a big shot to post the mild upset, opening at 5/1.
Meal Ticket moved up comfortably inside from seventh to fourth last month in the Gamely and was third at the eighth pole before running into a roadblock from which she could not recover. She didn’t quicken when asked but there was no reason to ask at the point where there was any room. The fact Smith is getting on says a LOT about her chances here, for a low profile trainer in Chew. She’s been very consistent with seven first or second place finishes in 12 career races on grass, 11 if you ignore the Gamely, so opening at 8/1 she’s a must to use on exotic tickets we play at the least.
Storm the Hill won the Ken Maddy Stakes last fall, a downhill sprint, when last seen, and she won last year’s Wilshire at 9 to 1 right after shipping into the D’Amato barn from Kentucky. She last two races after that, one with some trouble, before the Maddy win, and although it’s tough to win at a mile in top company off a seven month layoff like she’s attempting to do today, it’s not an impossible task for this trainer who has won four times from 25 starters over the last five years with these kinds of horses.
Bets: Ollies Candy AND Meal Ticket to win at odds 5 to 2 or more.
When making multiple win bets, use a “Dutching” tool with which you can enter the amount you want to spend or the amount you want to win and the calculation of how much to bet will be done for you. Amwager provides a free “Dutching” tool, among other great benefits for the handicapper and bettor.
