Key Races & Bets for Saturday March 19th, 2022
Harrison E. Johnson Memorial Stakes – Race 8 at Laurel Park – Post Time 4:15 PM Eastern
Galerio is a standout in this race but that’s fine because there is money to be made in doubles from race eight to race nine and on pick three tickets in races eight, nine and 10. Second in this race last year, Galerio then won by seven lengths in his next start at Pimlico in May before a fine third in a graded stakes. Dropped in for a 40K claiming price, he ran second and was claimed before finishing second in another stakes last fall. Claimed again, this time for 50K, Galerio has run three straight big races in routes, and the one in which he finished third one before last was probably more impressive than his win last month in the John B. Campbell Stakes. The Jennings Stakes is the race I’m referring to, at Laurel in January, and Galerio pressed the pace in third before getting to within a neck of the lead then ran on very well to hold third. In front of him in the Jennings was multiple stakes winner Cordmaker, and Hanalei’s Houdini, who is entered in the $500,000 Essex Handicap at Oaklawn today. In the Campbell, Galerio only won by a nose but earned a career best, and field high, 115 Equibase figure and there is every reason to think he will run another “A” race good enough to win today.
Dontmesawithme is a closer and while other horses are battling on the lead or pressing the pace, with Galerio likely second or third early, he can rally from last to get second.
Handicapper Picks
Win bet: Galerio at odds of 3 to 2 or more.
Exacta: Galerio over Dontmesawithme
Double:
Race 8: Galerio
Race 9: She is Whiskey, Luna Belle
Pick 3 (two possible tickets):
Race 8: Galerio
Race 9: She is Whiskey, Luna Belle
Race 10: Conclusive, Joe
Race 8: Galerio
Race 9: She is Whiskey, Luna Belle
Race 10: Conclusive, Local Motive, Majestic Frontier, Eagle in Love, Joe, Shake Em Loose
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Beyond the Wire Stakes – Race 9 at Laurel Park – Post Time 4:45 PM Eastern
The heavy favorite is likely to be Luna Bella, who went to post at 2 to 5 odds last month in the Wide Country Stakes, at seven furlongs. Prior to that she won the Xtra Heat Stakes on January 29, by six lengths, with superb 98 and 97 figures which are very good. She does appear to be a legitimate favorite and should be used on pick 3 and double tickets. Still, Wide Country runner-up She Is Wisky may be able to turn the tables on Luna Bella, because she has big upside making her third start off the layoff whereas Luna Bella has run once a month since November. She is Wisky showed a pattern similar to what I’m expecting today as she finished third and fifth in her first two starts, last September, before an easy three length win. Then given nearly three months off she rallied from eighth to fourth before improving to a career best 91 figure when rallying from eighth to second behind Luna Bella. In addition, She is Wisky put in a very sharp second best of 28 five furlong workout coming into the race. As such I’d take a shot with a win bet at square odds compared to the odds-on Luna Bella, who in spite of going for her fourth straight stakes win has yet to run this one turn mile trip (same as She is Wisky but she will be higher odds).
Handicapper Picks
Win bet: She is Wisky at odds of 5 to 2 or more.
Exacta: Box She is Wisky and Luna Bella
Trifecta: She is Wisky and Luna Bella over She is Wisky and Luna Bella over Mama G’s Wish, Diamond Collector, Click to Confirm and Candy Light.
Optional Doubles (depending on whether we are live from pick three tickets played in race eight):
Race 9: She is Whiskey, Luna Belle
Race 10: Conclusive, Joe
Race 9: She is Whiskey, Luna Belle
Race 10: Conclusive, Local Motive, Majestic Frontier, Eagle in Love, Joe, Shake Em Loose
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Private Terms Stakes – Race 10 at Laurel Park – Post Time 5:16 PM Eastern
Historically this stakes for three year olds doesn’t have much significance, but the winner and some others may sometimes show up in the Federico Tesio Stakes on April 16 then likely the winner in the Preakness. On that note it’s a good time to get a look at some lightly raced three year olds not good enough for Derby points races. Trainer Mike Trombetta has an uncoupled entry here in Conclusive and Joe, and we should treat them as a coupled entry so if betting one should be the other. Joe is three for three on dirt in his career including a win at this distance over the track when last seen on January 23. Sire Declaration of War has had decent success on dirt although he’s known as a turf sire and Carrasco rides the colt back. Conclusive was sent to post as the 9 to 5 favorite in the Miracle Wood Stakes last month then pressed the pace in third early and gave way easily, ending up last of six. I’m willing to ignore that race because he’s moving back to a mile and one-sixteenth after that one turn mile, and at this distance when adding blinkers one before last he romped home to an easy six length win in ridden-out fashion. He has great tactical speed and can take the lead or sit second early and the win on January 2 at the trip over the track earned a very strong 97 Equibase figure which is the fastest any horse in this field has run, period.
Majestic Frontier was risked for 10K in a maiden claiming race in December shortly after Robb took over his training but after a runner-up effort, followed by a nine length win (at this distance) Robb realized he was lucky the gelding was not claimed. Following that nine length win with a four and one-half length win then a runner-up effort in the Miracle Wood, like Conclusive this horse is moving back to a mile and one-sixteenth which appears to be his preferred trip. The 91 figure earned in both the nine length win and when second in the Miracle Wood aren’t near the 97 Conclusive earned in his win at the distance this year and the fact Majestic Frontier did not improve his figure in February from his win in March is of concern but the price will be square.
Local Motive won the Miracle Wood, a one-turn race, and tries two turns for the first time, like Eagle in Love, Micro Star and Shake Em Loose. The 94 figure was his best yet but there is always concern about experience in this type of race when one horse does not have it and others do.
Handicapper Picks
Win Bets:
Conclusive and Joe to win oat odds of 3 to 1 or more.
Majestic Frontier can be considered for a win bet at 9 to 2 or more.
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Exactas:
Conclusive and Joe over Conclusive, Joe, Local Motive, Majestic Frontier, Eagle in Love, Shake Em Loose
Box Conclusive, Joe and Majestic Frontier
