Key Races & Bets for Saturday July 9, 2022
Belmont Oaks Invitational – Race 7 at Belmont Park – Post Time 4:06 PM Eastern
New Year’s Eve ran a breakout race when last seen winning the Edgewood Stakes on Kentucky Oaks day and although I usually give the European horses an edge because they’ve been facing tougher and running farther as compared to the North American horses, there’s no way to ignore this filly’s effort on May 6. She had won the first two starts of her career, both turf routes, in December and in January before a close third effort in a stakes in March, but when adding blinkers for that race two months ago she was much better. With Saez (who rides today) in the saddle for the first time, New Year’s Eve moved up quickly from 10th to 8th to lead on the far turn then sailed home easily. The 107 Equibase figure is the best by ANY of the North American group and not far from the 111-113 figures the two best European runners have earned and it could easily be improved upon as she’s now two months older. Better still, sire Kitten’s Joy leads the group of sires in this race with graded stakes winners on grass, including TWO winners of the Belmont Derby (race nine today), in 2017 and 2019. Coming into the race New Year’s Eve put in a huge half-mile workout on this Belmont inner turf course, around the cones, getting the distance in a sizzling 46.6 seconds, which provides more evidence the filly can show winning form again.
Concert Hall is one of two from the Aiden O’Brien barn, who won this race last year with Santa Barbara and in 2018 with Athena. Concert Hall is on the same pattern as last year’s winner, who ran in the Cazoo Oaks in early June then in the Pretty Polly Stakes near the end of the month. She’s run in THREE STRAIGHT Group 1 races, which are superior in class to North American Grade 1 races and she was very well regarded in the both of her last two races so this class relief could be what she needs. In her last three starts, Concert Hall earned 112, 112 and 113 figures and if no other horse steps up then repeating any of those three efforts could be good enough for her to win. Similar to Kitten’s Joy, sire Dubawi produces many turf route stakes winners, including 2021 Breeders’ Cup Turf winner Yibir, and the #1 jockey for the stable (Ryan Moore) takes the call, having been aboard for two of her three career wins.
Know Thyself has never been worse than fourth in five races, winning just once but it was her last race which intrigues me a lot. She was third in a much longer (11 furlongs) stakes race on the turf in France, after a big second place in a group 3 (equivalent of a North American grade 2) race. That effort earned a 102 figure but unlike Concert Hall (10 starts), Know Thyself is just making her sixth career start. She’s a daughter of world class sire Galileo, who produced last year’s Belmont Derby winner Bolshoi Ballet, incidentally trained by Aiden O’ Brien and ridden by Ryan Moore (who team up on Concert Hall).
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: New Year’s Eve to win at 3 to 1 or more.
Exactas: Box New Year’s Eve, Know Thyself and Concert Hall
Doubles:
Race 7: New Year’s Eve, Know Thyself and Concert Hall
Race 8: Smash Ticket
Pick 3s (two plays)
Race 7: New Year’s Eve, Know Thyself and Concert Hall
Race 8: Smash Ticket
Race 9: ALL
Race 7: ALL
Race 8: Smash Ticket
Race 9: Royal Patronage, Nation’s Pride, Stone Age
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Victory Ride Stakes – Race 8 at Belmont Park – Post Time 4:38 PM Eastern
Smash Ticket stands out in this seven horse grade 3 stakes race. Pretty Birdie has led after a quarter mile and half mile in six of seven races. Hot Peppers has led at the same two points of call in four of her last five races. These two need-the-lead types can’t be rated and the result is Smash Ticket can sit in third then roll by to win. She ships out from Texas for excellent trainer Fincher (22% wins on the year) off a devastating 11 length win. That race came following nearly 10 months off and the filly, having been off since May 30, should run even better. That’s a scary thought because the effort on May 30 earned a 100 Equibase figure which is about 20 points (or 10 lengths) higher than every other horse in the field except Hot Peppers (who earned a 97 figure last month), but with Hot Peppers compromised by the pace scenario, Smash Ticket gets everything she wants. Additionally, Mike Smith comes out from California to ride and the dam has produced four other foals which have won 12 of 21 races to date, all sprints and some also stakes races.
Handicapper Picks
Bets:
Win bets: Smash Ticket at odds of 3 to 2 or higher.
Doubles: (These can be passed if we are alive in the pick 3s started in race 7)
Race 8: Smash Ticket
Race 9: Royal Patronage, Nation’s Pride, Stone Age
Race 8: Smash Ticket
Race 9: ALL
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Belmont Derby – Race 9 at Belmont Park – Post Time 5:12 PM Eastern
Although only won by European horses making their first starts in North America in two of the last 10 years, this year’s Belmont Derby Invitational lends itself to being won by one of the five European invaders this year for a number of reasons. First and foremost, none of the horses based in the states have ever run the mile and one-quarter distance on turf and only one horse, Classic Causeway, has ever run the distance, having finished 11th in this year’s Kentucky Derby. With that in mind, Stone Age gets top billing in this year’s race based on the fact that he’s following an identical pattern to last year’s winner, Bolshoi Ballet , who was also trained by Aiden O’Brien and ridden by Ryan Moore. Like Bolshoi Ballet, Stone Age last ran in the Cazoo Derby, finishing sixth of 17 compared to seventh of 11 for Bolshoi Ballet. Also like Bolshoi Ballet , Stone Age won the Derby Trial Stakes prior to running in the Cazoo Derby. That effort earned a 112 Equibase Speed Figure, which is the second highest earned by any horse in the field behind the 117 figure Machete earned when seventh in his most recent race. Previously, Stone Age earned a career-best 113 figure when second in the Criterium de Saint Cloud Stakes last October. The Derby Trial, as well as the race Stone Age won prior to that, were both the same mile and one-quarter distance in a counter-clockwise fashion as the Belmont Derby. Therefore repeating either of those two efforts is good enough to win this race.
Royal Patronage was much further back in the Cazoo Derby compared to Stone Age but his effort just prior to that, in May, was as good as the race Stone Age ran that same month. That was a second of eight finish in the Dante Stakes, where the colt found a path with three furlongs left to run and closed well for second behind Desert Crown, who came back to win the Cazoo Derby. Last September, Royal Patronage won the very important Royal Lodge Stakes as well, with those two efforts earning 110 and 108 figures on par with the 110 and 112 figures Stone Age has earned this year. He also earned a 113 figure when eighth of 15 in the Two Thousand Guineas this past April. The Dante Stakes was run at the distance of a mile and five-sixteenths, so we know the mile and one-quarter distance of the Belmont Derby will be no problem. Getting local jockey Joel Rosario, Royal Patronage should be taken very seriously as a contender.
Nations Pride showed a lot of promise and talent in his second start as a three year old in April when drawing off to win the Newmarket Stakes with a 106 figure. That was his second straight win at the mile and one-quarter distance of the Belmont Derby. He then finished eighth in the Cazoo Derby (with a 108 figure), three lengths behind Stone Age and well ahead of Royal Patronage. Getting the services of world class jockey Frankie Dettori, it must be noted Nations Pride is trained by Charles Appleby, who has a phenomenal record when shipping horses from Europe to race in North America. According to a Race Lens query, in the last five years, Appleby has a record of 13-6-2 in 22 races, including 3-3-2 in eight races on the New York Circuit consisting of Aqueduct, Belmont and Saratoga. Except for that eighth place effort in his most recent race, Nations Pride was never worse than second in five races and after a runner-up debut last summer won four in a row, each by wide margins. That provides enough reason to believe this colt could also be very competitive in the Belmont Derby.
Machete gets honorable mention as he comes into this race off a career-best effort even though seventh in the Prix du Jockey Club Stakes last month on the same weekend as the Cazoo Derby. That earned a 117 figure because of the high class nature of the race, and like the Dante Stakes in which Royal Patronage finished second, the Prix du Jockey Club was run at the longer distance of a mile and five-sixteenth, so this colt could also give a good account of himself.
Handicapper Picks
Win Bets: Consider these three for win bets, at or above the odds listed, with preference to the horses in order. Personally I’ll bet two of the three (those at the highest odds of the trio) if the odds are above the minimums.
Stone Age at 2 to 1 or higher.
Royal Patronage at 5 to 2 or higher.
Nations Pride at 5 to 2 or higher.
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Exactas:
Box Stone Age, Royal Patronage and Nations Pride
Box Stone Age, Royal Patronage, Nations Pride and Machete
