Key Races & Bets for Saturday July 23, 2022
Molly Pitcher Stakes – Race 10 at Monmouth – Post Time 4:38 PM Eastern
We start a great three race sequence ending with the Haskell Stakes, where you’ll see I am against BOTH likely top betting choices. We start the sequence with a good pair of horses at likely higher odds than they should be in Leader of the Band and Beth’s Dream, with Army Wife the other win contender.
Leader of the Band just ran the best race of her career when gamely winning by a head in the Lady’s Secret Stakes over the track at the same distance of this race. It may have been the sloppy track which helped her but I don’t think so, as she won by 10 lengths two races before that on a fast track and she won the Monmouth Oaks last year at the distance. Pennington, who has been up for three of her last four wins, gets back on and the 47.8 half-mile work since raced is telling us she’s holding form. The rail helps her to save ground no matter who leads early and the 110 Equibase figure is not only the best last race figure in the field but better than the 104 Army Wife earned (which was also a career best) winning the Lady Jacqueline Stakes last month.
Beth’s Dream led from the half-mile mark to right on the wire in that race when Leader of the Band got her nose down in time. She’s a lightly raced four year old who has won three of four going back to December when she changed trainers, with her three wins coming by an average of 10 lengths. She earned a 106 figure one before the 109 figure in the Lady’s Secret and Paco Lopez rides back after getting to know her last out. She has no knocks.
Army Wife won the Black Eyed Susan and Iowa Oaks last year then lost four in a row including her 2022 debut but that came off a seven month layoff. Second off the layoff was a BIG effort when she won the Lady Jacqueline and there’s certainly no knock in Rosario taking over for Gaffalione (who is at Saratoga) so we can expect another big effort.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Leader of the Band AND Beth’s Dream at odds of 2 to 1 or more.
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Exactas: Box Leader of the Band, Army Wife, Beth’s Dream
Doubles:
Race 10: Leader of the Band, Army Wife, Beth’s Dream
Race 11: Adhamo, Temple, Tribhuvan, Kentucky Ghost, Gufo
Race 10: Leader of the Band, Army Wife, Beth’s Dream
Race 11: Tribhuvan, Kentucky Ghost, Gufo
Pick 3s:
Race 10: Leader of the Band, Army Wife, Beth’s Dream
Race 11: Adhamo, Temple, Tribhuvan, Kentucky Ghost, Gufo
Race 12: Cyberknife, Howling Time, White Abarrio
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United Nations Stakes – Race 11 at Monmouth – Post Time 5:09 PM Eastern
Tribhuvan, who won this race last year as the 8 to 5 favorite off a runner-up finish in the Manhattan Stakes one month earlier, enters this year’s edition off a win in the Manhattan when controlling the pace from start to finish. There is a possibility Epic Bromance (who is overmatched), or Carpenters Call (also overmatched) may use their speed and try to take away any early pace edge Tribhuvan has, but it’s not enough to toss him as a strong win contender.
Still, Kentucky Ghost is VERY intriguing as he’s banked over $350K winning four of 16 on grass and finishing second in six others, three by inches. He’s bred to run this far (1 3/8 miles) although the farthest he’s run is 1 3/16 miles and he missed in two stakes tries last summer. Those efforts are good enough for a big piece if repeated BUT more importantly he ran over the Monmouth turf for the first time last out (May 28) and rallied from last of nine to win easily. It’s significant that Geroux takes over and the 116 figure, as well as his late pace figure, are the best among any of these in terms of their recent races. Put in perspective, his 110, 109 and 116 best three figures in the last year stack up with the 115, 114 and 113 figures Tribhuvan earned in his best three races in the past 12 months including winning this race last year. Considering Kentucky Ghost is going to be MUCH higher odds, he’s the horse we must look to first when considering our wagers in this race.
Gufo was the 2 to 1 favorite in the Manhattan and rallied from eighth to third into a horribly slow pace. Before that he was second in the Man O’War and he won the similar Pan American Stakes in April off a five month layoff Rosario is his regular rider and aboard once again. Last summer in the Sword Dancer, Gufo earned a career best 116 figure (with figures ranging from 104 to 107 since) so he does have the potential to be there at the wire with the other two main contenders here with his best effort.
You’ll note I’m using Adhamo and Temple on one set of double tickets and on the pick 3, because there’s enough value in the sequence to do so owing to not using the favorites in the last leg (Haskell). Adhamo was blocked for a significant portion of the stretch in the Manhattan and although he had no shot to catch Tribhuvan he strode out nicely when clear and could have an impact here with a better trip. Temple won the nearly identical Mac Diarmida Stakes in March with Jose Ortiz riding as today. He has only run one bad race among four since Maker claimed him for 80K in November and since he’s been 1st or 2nd in 15 of 34 career turf races can’t be ignored.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Kentucky Ghost to win at odds of 5 to 2.
Minimum odds on Tribhuvan are also 5 to 2, and on Gufo they are 3 to 1 but I don’t think either will reach those thresholds.
Exactas: Kentucky Ghost, Tribhuvan and Gufo over Kentucky Ghost, Tribhuvan, Gufo, Adhamo and Temple
Optionally, play the reverse of that exacta in case Adhamo and Temple win, and in that case if any two of the top three contenders finish first and second we win both bets.
Doubles (not necessary to play if live in the pick 3 started in race 10):
Race 11: Adhamo, Temple, Tribhuvan, Kentucky Ghost, Gufo
Race 12: Cyberknife, Howling Time, White Abarrio
Race 11: Tribhuvan, Kentucky Ghost, Gufo
Race 12: Cyberknife, Howling Time, White Abarrio
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Haskell Stakes – Race 12 at Monmouth – Post Time 5:45 PM Eastern
In the Matt Winn Stakes on June 12, Howling Time led from the start on sensible fractions, then was engaged by Cyberknife with a quarter mile to run. From that point to the wire they were involved in a pitched battle, with Cyberknife prevailing by a nose on the wire. Both colts earned 104 Equibase Speed Figures for that effort, which compares favorably with the 106 figure White Abarrio earned when second in the Ohio Derby. Jack Christopher earned the highest figure, 108, when winning the Woody Stephens Stakes in June but for reasons mentioned later may be hard pressed to repeat that effort. Howling Time is on a four race pattern of improving figures, starting with 56 in his three year old debut in March, to 77, then to 91 in May and finally the 104 figure earned in the Matt Winn. Third place Matt Winn finisher Rattle N Roll flattered both Howling Time and Cyberknife when winning the American Derby on July 2 and improving six points, which suggests both Howling Time and Cyberknife could run fast enough to earn 110 figures here. Considering Howling Time opens at slightly higher odds (10 to 1) compared to Cyberknife (6 to 1), I’ll give slight preference to Howling Time as the better bet in this year’s Haskell Stakes.
Cyberknife came onto the three year old scene in a big way in February when winning at the slightly shorter mile and one-sixteenth distance but earning a graded stakes quality 100 Equibase Speed Figure. Showing that to be no fluke, he next won the Arkansas Derby with a slightly lower figure (95) but perhaps could have run faster as he coasted to a two and three-quarter length win. Following a non-competitive 18th place effort in the Kentucky Derby, Cyberknife resurfaced five weeks later and was exceptionally game when beating Howling Time by a nose and earning a career-best 104 figure in the process. With the ground saving rail for the Haskell, regular jockey Florent Geroux will have the ability to put the talented colt on the lead from the start, or if Howling Time wants the early lead as he did in the Matt Winn, Geroux can stalk in second as he did that day, setting up another stirring battle to the wire.
White Abarrio actually ran a bit faster in his most recent race than the top pair, earning a 106 figure when second (beaten a length) in the Ohio Derby. Whereas the Matt Winn was run at a mile and one-sixteenth, the Ohio Derby was run at the nine furlong distance of the Haskell, the same distance White Abarrio won at when victorious in the Florida Derby this spring. Like Cyberknife, White Abarrio has exceptional tactical speed, having won when fifth early in the Florida Derby and when second early in the Holy Bull Stakes prior to that. As such, White Abarrio is a strong contender in the this race as well, and his starting odds of 5 to 1 appear to be high enough compared to his probability to win he too should be considered worthy of a win bet.
About the favorites, who I am taking a stand against in this race: Although both Jack Christopher and Taiba have run fast enough to win, having earned 108 and 102 figures, respectively, I don’t think either can beat any of the three main contenders if those horses run as expected. Jack Christopher was two-for-two last year and has the same record this year, improving to a career-best 108 figure with his 10 length win in the Woody Stephens Stakes in June. However, all four of his wins have been around one turn and he is giving up experience to many others in this race. Additionally, he just isn’t bred to run as well at this distance as he has at shorter trips. A Race Lens query reveals his sire, Munnings, has had 11 different horses make a total of 25 starts in stakes race at all levels at this nine furlong distance, and none of those horses won. One of those is Bonny South, who ran earlier in the Molly Pitcher Stakes. Although having earned $1 million and winning or placing in 11 of 16 races, she is zero-for-five (with four seconds and one third place finish) at the distance. Jack Christopher’s dam (Rushin No Blushin) only ran one time in a two-turn race, finishing 12th. Those are good reasons in my opinion to take a stand against Jack Christopher in this race. As for Taiba, I did not like his chances in the Kentucky Derby in spite of his big win in the Santa Anita Derby, owing to his lack of experience. He had just run two times previous to the Derby, winning in a four horse field in his debut and a six horse field in the Santa Anita Derby. Although the 102 figures in those two efforts would have been competitive in the Kentucky Derby field if repeated, it was unlikely he could repeat those races against 19 other horses, particularly with many having more experience. Now he has an additional problem, having been off for more time than any other horse in the field. There is no guarantee Taiba can run back to his best effort off the layoff against much more seasoned competition, particularly as there are four other horses in the Haskell field that have run faster than he has to date.
Handicapper Picks
Win Bets: Cyberknife, Howling Time and White Abarrio can be considered for win bets at 3 to 1 or more.
As the starting odds on Jack Christopher and on Taiba are 3 to 2 and 7 to 5, if may very well be ALL three of the above will have odds above the minimum and in that case I will bet the two at the highest odds.
As such, this is another race where using a Dutching tool is very important, particularly because of the likely odds differences between the horses we are betting to win. The dutching tool at Amwager will come in very handy here.
Exactas:
Box Cyberknife, Howling Time and White Abarrio
