Pegasus Stakes – Race 10 at Monmouth – Post Time 4:44 PM Eastern
Analysis and main contenders:
ALL eyes, and a decent amount of wagering dollars, are going to be on Kingsbarns, who drops in class into a non-graded stakes after a 14th place finish in the Kentucky Derby after battling head-and-head through ridiculously fast fractions for the first six furlongs. He led from start to finish in the Louisiana Derby prior to that and won an allowance race one month earlier after racing third for the first half-mile and he doesn’t wear blinkers so he’s not an absolute “need the lead” type. Nevertheless, he’s NO STANDOUT based on the back-to-back 100 Equibase Speed Figures he earned before the Derby. Even better, the second lowest morning line odds belong to Classic Catch (7 to 2) and he’s got much less chance to win as compared to three other horses in here so we can make some money EVEN IF Kingsbarns wins at low odds. Classic Catch has ONLY an allowance win to his credit, followed by fifth and fourth place efforts in the Wood Memorial and Peter Pan but those were poor efforts, without Lasix, which he doesn’t get today and which he got for his allowance win in March.
My TOP PICK is Salute the Stars, opening at 4 to 1. He nearly won the first start of his career last summer at a mile on grass, no easy task, then he moved forward nicely to win a race on turf at this distance in August. On the shelf until May 14, Salute the Stars came back at nine furlongs on dirt as if he had never been away, winning by a neck after stalking in third then opening up in the stretch by a length. Certainly almost getting caught was a function of being off for nine months and he’s going to be a lot tighter and tougher today in his second start off the rest. Therefore the 98 figure he earned is likely to be improved to more than the 100 figures Kingsbarns earned in his two best races this year.
Howgreatisnate opens a bit higher at 9 to 2 and also is a strong contender to win. He won the first four starts of his career last year including two stakes. All of those were sprints but he was still so highly regarded when he made his three year old debut in March it was in the Gotham Stakes. Unfortunately he lost the jockey at the start. Returning two weeks later he finished fourth in the Private Terms Stakes at this distance, but then when transferred to the barn of Elizabeth Dobles, Howgreatisnate showed a lot of talent gamely winning the Long Branch Stakes five weeks ago at Monmouth, the local prep for the Pegasus. Similar to Salute the Stars, Howgreatisnate should run even better in his second start at the meet, but on the other hand the 91 figure he earned is about the equivalent of 3-4 lengths shy of Salute the Stars last race and if both improve at the same rate it might be tough for Howgreatisnate to win.
I’m using Kingsbarns, as well as Subrogate (who finished second in a one-turn mile and won at six and one-half furlongs to date so yet to run two turns), in second on exacta tickets.
Bets-
Win: Salute the Stars to win at odds of 9 to 5 or higher.
Exacta:
Salute the Stars and Howgreatisnate over Salute the Stars, Subrogate, Howgreatisnate, Kingsbarns
Doubles:
Race 10: Salute the Stars, Howgreatisnate
Race 11: Scotish Star, Vergara
Pick 3:
Race 10: Salute the Stars, Howgreatisnate
Race 11: Scotish Star, Vergara
Race 12: Nimitz Class, Ridin with Biden, Petulante
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Eatontown Stakes – Race 11 at Monmouth – Post Time 5:12 PM Eastern
Analysis and main contenders:
This is a great betting race because the top two morning line favorites are vulnerable. Although Gina Romantica is four for seven in her career, she is facing four year olds and upward for the first time while coming back from eight months off. She won the restricted Riskaverse Stakes last August (for horses which had never won a stakes) then finished second in the similar Grade 3 Pebbles before winning the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup but that was almost three-quarters of a year ago and there’s not any reason to think she can run as well off the long layoff, even if her trainer is Chad Brown. Brown’s record with horses coming back from more than six months off in graded stakes turf routes is a pretty low six for 44 going back three years and so I’m taking a stand against Gina Romantica. The other starting favorite is Suprisingly at 7 to 2 and I don’t get it as she was third in the Beaugay Stakes last month (where Consumer Spending was second) and she was third in the Hillsborough Stakes in March (where Scotish Star was second). Her only stakes win came in February before those two and if repeated it isn’t even good enough to beat my top two contenders if they repeat their best efforts.
Scotish Star is the first of the two, with a 3-5-1 record which could easily be 5-3-1 if not for a head defeat on the wire in October and a neck defeat to Surprisingly in the Endeavour Stakes in February. She then stepped up into Grade 2 company and ran huge to be second in the Hillsborough to Shantisara, then off a two month layoff she led in the stretch and came up a half-length short to Spirit and Glory. Getting an inside draw over the other possible speed in Katies a Lady, but with the ability to come from off the pace as she did in the Endeavour, Saez has all the options available to him to get Scotish Star to run her best, which is good enough to win.
Vergara was returning from seven months off on May 20 in the Grade 3 Gallorette Stakes on Preakness Day when moving up from third, to second, to within a head of the leader, before falling back to fifth. That makes perfect sense, but now making her second start off the layoff, and with trainer Motion going to John Ruiz, where the pair has won nearly one-quarter of their 43 combined races the past year, this filly can improve back to the form shown when winning the $400K Dueling Grounds Oaks last September.
Since both win contenders may go to post at decent odds, we can use some others in second on exacta tickets in addition to Gina Romantica and Suprisingly. Those are Consumer Spending and Spirit and Glory.
Bets-
Win: Scotish Star at 2 to 1 or more and Vergara at 5 to 2 or more.
As both may go to post at higher than minimum odds near post time, this is a great race to take advantage of the mathematical edge provided by a “Dutching” tool, which prorates wagers for the best value. There’s a free dutching tool at Amwager.com, where you can set the amount you want to bet or the amount you want to win, and the math is done for you to help achieve the best edge. This is just one of many tools, and perks, for bettors at Amwager.com
Exactas: Scotish Star and Vergara over Scotish Star, Vergara, Surprisingly, Consumer Spending, Spirit and Glory, Gina Romantica
Doubles:
Race 11: Scotish Star, Vergara
Race 12: Nimitz Class, Ridin with Biden, Petulante
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Salvator Mile Stakes – Race 12 at Monmouth – Post Time 5:40 PM Eastern
Analysis and Contenders:
It’s going to be tough for the rest of the field to beat Nimitz Class based on the way he’s been running since last December. Nimitz Class has won five in a row, and in the last four races has been dominant in the last eighth of a mile by being in front by at least three lengths then coasting home the rest of the way. Jockey Jevian Toledo has been in the saddle for all five wins after never having ridden the horse previously and that speaks volumes for the horse and jockey relationship which could lead to Nimitz Class securing his 11th career win in his 17th race. He’s also run faster than the rest of the Salvator Mile field, and more than once, as the 118 Equibase speed figure earned winning the John B. Campbell Stakes in February and the 113 figure earned winning the Harrison E. Johnson Memorial Stakes in March are better than any figure earned at any point by the other horses in the race. In securing his last four victories, Nimitz Class has shown the ability to lead from the start or to sit in second for the opening half-mile before taking over and drawing away, and that is likely to be the same strategy employed by Toledo here for this four year old who may still not have run his best race.
Even with Nimitz Class being the horse to beat, Ridin With Biden is no slouch, having earned $475,000 to date in his career compared to $464,800 for Nimitz Class, while winning seven of 21 races and finishing second in five others. Ridin With Biden proved stakes worthy starting in the summer of 2021 when leading late before settling for second in the Dwyer Stakes at Belmont. Then after six defeats and possibly as the result of returning to the races as a gelding, Ridin With Biden really got good, winning or placing in six of eight straight stakes races, including back-to-back wins in November of last year and January of this year. The best three of those efforts earned him consistent 106 and 107 figures which aren’t as good as the two best figures Nimitz Class earned recently. On the other hand, considering Nimitz Class earned 106, 103 and 105 figures in three of his five recent wins and if he repeats those efforts, any of the best recent races Ridin With Biden has run might be good enough to win the Salvator Mile if repeated.
Petulante appears ready for his first stakes try as he returned from a three and one-half month layoff and made short work of a tough allowance field at this distance last month. This four year old got a late start as he made his career debut last July but every race he’s run has been an “A” effort, particularly his race in January of this year at the same distance of the Salvator Mile, winning by four lengths with a 101 figure. Off the layoff last month Petulante earned a 100 figure which might have been higher but there was no need for jockey Luis Saez (who rides again) to ask him for more speed as he had easily broken clear of the rest of the field in the stretch. As a four year old with only five races under his belt, Petulante has a lot of upside and can use the rail draw to his advantage to save ground while either trying for the early lead from the start of relaxing as far back as fourth in the early stages, which he’s done in his previous victories.
Bets:
Win: Nimitz Class opens at 7 to 2 but that’s optimistic as he’s been the odds-on favorite in his last three races. I think I would be willing to bet him at odds of 3 to 2 or more. Ridin With Biden can be bet at odds of 3 to 1 or more, and Petulante can be bet at odds of 4 to 1 or more.
This is another race where if we are betting more than one horse to win a dutching tool really helps us to get the best edge possible by allocating our wagering dollars based on the odds.
Exactas: Box Nimitz Class, Petulante, Ridin with Biden
